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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,821
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:47pm Feb 16, 2014 1:47pm
GBPUSD has rallied for 8 days consecutively - last time it did 9 days was 8 years ago
  • #363,822
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:52pm Feb 16, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Good thinking. Many accounts should be close to a margin call, if they held on to their shorts from 1,6500. So why should the market makers not take out their accounts first before any retracement? Should be fitting to the cruel reality of the FX market. And since a lot of people do not know what is a margin call ... they might get stopped by their brokers as you said.
For me the greatest concentration of stops are probably going to come from all the bad positioning at 1.6650, and secondarily at 1.6700. At 50:1 leverage (max offered by FXCM which is still the most popular retail FX broker), you can have around 300K of GU risk for every 10K in your account. So a 150pip move to 1.68 would cause the account to decline by about 40-50% and the position to get halved by your broker. At mid 1.68s you'd see the same pain from the levered 1.67 crowd.
The forced reduction of perhaps about half the short position from 1.665x and 1.670x together with a few early eager beavers looking to pay up 1.68xx for 1.70xx may be enough to catalyze some correction (I know a lot of people are calling for a return to 1.665x but my sense is that this isn't likely to happen until the current 1.665x and 1.670x shorts are forced out of about half their position which usually happens at around a 1-1.5% move)
We'll have to see what happens though.
  • #363,823
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:59pm Feb 16, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Davit
I am surprised nobody is talking about the obvious correlation EU 1.37 more or less and not breaking higher GU 167.50 GU 1.70? EU 1.40+ these two numbers should be in sink.Not happening.GU can't appreciate without EU coming along.Its obvious market does not have confidence on Euro. This is the key to puzzle.GU will come down to be inline with Euro.Once selling resumes on Euro GU will dive even harder since it is over stretched. EU 1.35 1st target and by May possibly 1.31 when Greek elections takes place. Key fib extension 127.2 at 6780 Strong possible...
EU already hit 1.35?

Longer term I think this is a fair view, but this week it looks like GU is going higher and EU maybe slightly higher or consolidation.

GU key level 1.66, I am looking to buy around 1.6620 for target 1.68 depending on PA around this level. If we break 1.6573 then bears have a chance this week, but to me bears have better shot next week Feb 24-Feb 28
  • #363,824
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:01pm Feb 16, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting JeremyWS
GBPUSD has rallied for 8 days consecutively - last time it did 9 days was 8 years ago
Well tomorrow is US holiday too, so it can trade lower but on low volume and still fit this correlation. Long term I am bearish GBP and looking for opportunities to short and target 1.58, but this week looks bullish to me.
  • #363,825
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:02pm Feb 16, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Good thinking. Many accounts should be close to a margin call, if they held on to their shorts from 1,6500. So why should the market makers not take out their accounts first before any retracement? Should be fitting to the cruel reality of the FX market. And since a lot of people do not know what is a margin call ... they might get stopped by their brokers as you said.

I don't think MM would be driving the prices up or down just to hit traders' accounts. Just think about importers/exporters and the impact on their operations from that. No central bank would allow the MM to play with prices just to take few hundred bucks from trader's account and causing millions of bucks of losses to the economy from price fluctuation affecting import/export.
  • #363,826
  • Edited 2:26pm Feb 16, 2014 2:06pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting Maks
{quote} I don't think MM would be driving the prices up or down just to hit traders' accounts. Just think about importers/exporters and the impact on their operations from that. No central bank would allow the MM to play with prices just to take few hundred bucks from trader's account and causing millions of bucks of losses to the economy from price fluctuation affecting import/export.
The FX market is one of the most unregulated in the world and is driven by supply and demand. As I just explained:
-The market makers got long from a ton of shorts in 1.6650 who inexplicably failed to stop out or flip after resistance broke
-The market makers got longer from more shorts at 1.670x and longs who took profit after the break-out
-At 1.675x there weren't too many new shorts (end of trading session) but a handful of long take profits
-At low-mid 1.68xx the 1.665x and 1.670x crowd due to forced liquidation will monetize some of the market makers positions
Brokers aren't hunting your stops, but the market makers (particularly non-bank LP) and hedge funds on the interbank exchange sure are, if you get them long they're going to be buying. And they know they can monetize the trade because of forced liquidation of at least some of your position whether you want to or not.
Add to the fact that not even strong conviction longs on this board thought 1.672x was a good/safe level to buy at and this becomes your likely outcome.
Could be wrong, but this seems logical to me. Good luck guys.
  • #363,827
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:18pm Feb 16, 2014 2:18pm
i neeed Gap down at gbpusd I dont want to delete my account. : O

This is an account of all my money in 2011 started at $ 7,500 dropped in 2013 to 2500 $ and is now $ 10,500 - again it's all my money there - I do not have $ 1 in the bank - and its open to sell 0.8 now
  • #363,828
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:21pm Feb 16, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting yosi408
i neeed Gap down at gbpusd I dont want to delete my account. : O This is an account of all my money in 2011 started at $ 7,500 dropped in 2013 to 2500 $ and is now $ 10,500 - again it's all my money there - I do not have $ 1 in the bank - and its open to sell 0.8 now
Why ? Why ? Why ???
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #363,829
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:23pm Feb 16, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting yosi408
i neeed Gap down at gbpusd I dont want to delete my account. : O This is an account of all my money in 2011 started at $ 7,500 dropped in 2013 to 2500 $ and is now $ 10,500 - again it's all my money there - I do not have $ 1 in the bank - and its open to sell 0.8 now
Holy cow ... Well, I hope you will still have some money to live. Better close it before everything is gone.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,830
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:26pm Feb 16, 2014 2:26pm
I put Sale Because the gbpusd went up too much - but the bank did not want to take him down

I do not know what to do I can not close it big minus, putting up 10 lot for sale in Gap? Because almost all the time he goes down after Gap up?
  • #363,831
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:31pm Feb 16, 2014 2:31pm
i cant close it at this 1:30 hour in fxcm, the minus is veryyy big
  • #363,832
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:38pm Feb 16, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting yosi408
i cant close it at this 1:30 hour in fxcm, the minus is veryyy big
-800 is better than -10.000

you'll get a chance to trade again at least or if you are still sane you can just click the withdraw button and forget about trading for a while.
  • #363,833
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:39pm Feb 16, 2014 2:39pm
But if, after I close at minus 800 - The gbpusd will be down - it will feel bad
  • #363,834
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:42pm Feb 16, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting JeremyWS
GBPUSD has rallied for 8 days consecutively - last time it did 9 days was 8 years ago
I'm pretty sure Cable rallied for 10 days straight in 2012 in the Q1-2 peak
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,835
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:42pm Feb 16, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting yosi408
But if, after I close at minus 800 - The gbpusd will be down - it will feel bad
Stubborn you.
So sell 1.5lots at 1.682x and average down if we get no correction until there we'll perhaps see a 50pip correction from roughly there as most of the shorts have already exhausted their margin at 1.665x and 1.670x. Lucky you that you're only at 10x and not 50x leverage.
If you were smart though, you'd just withdraw. Trust me, trading's not your thing.
  • #363,836
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:44pm Feb 16, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting yosi408
i cant close it at this 1:30 hour in fxcm, the minus is veryyy big
Even the minus is big, probably you need to consider cutting the loss. I am starting to worried on this insane. The triplet of GBP, EUR, AUD already gap for 20 pips above.

Good Luck.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,837
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:52pm Feb 16, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting yosi408
But if, after I close at minus 800 - The gbpusd will be down - it will feel bad
How will you feel when the market opens and this pair rises to 1,72?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,838
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:52pm Feb 16, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting Kenjlau
US Bank holiday tomorrow. Don't get too hype up on some pre-market volatility. Keep your cool guys.
Bank holidays are perfect opportunities to run stops. Remember the post-Christmas EU and EA run up?
I agree not to get hyped up about pre-market vol as typically the gaps get filled eventually but a HIGH open is likely to start the margin calls once the brokers come online some after Sydney open and some after Tokyo open. See y'all in a few hours.
  • #363,839
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:56pm Feb 16, 2014 2:56pm
I know that one day this week will be the gbpusd down 300 - 200 pips - the question how much will go up before it starts - I'm afraid to delete the account before it happens
  • #363,840
  • Feb 16, 2014 2:58pm Feb 16, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} How will you feel when the market opens and this pair rises to 1,72?
why not 1,8? even on monday
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