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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,801
  • Feb 16, 2014 8:22am Feb 16, 2014 8:22am
A better economy means a rate hike is sooner. The better the accumulative news, the sooner the hike. Carney's metrics are just that, metrics. He is explaining the thought process of the BoE. Nothing he says changes the fundamentals. Better news means sooner hike.

Think about the reverse, when the rates are at or near zero, and no rate cut is at all plausible, markets will still react to negative news, not because a rate cut is possible, but a rate hike is that much farther. I don't believe anything will bring down the pound other than bad news. That's just my two pence.
  • #363,802
  • Feb 16, 2014 8:29am Feb 16, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Psychologist
I think Carney has clearly adopted a dovish stance. I am really surprised that why so many FF members think that the Cable should gap up on Monday open. Let's call it a cognitive disability and read Carney's important remarks : “There are some very big forces that are operatingnow and will persist,” Carney told BBC’s “The Andrew Marr Show” today, citing weakness in Europe, repair of public balance sheets and improvements to the financial system. “All of those forces conspire collectively to keep the...

very good analysis
  • #363,803
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:23am Feb 16, 2014 9:23am
What about the fundamentals here? Storms and floods have ruined a great part of the UK for nearly 2 weeks,and its still ongoing.This will take billions to repair.How can the cable still be at 1.6750?How on earth could it rise further?
  • #363,804
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:31am Feb 16, 2014 9:31am
All today I prayed to God that the gbpusd open 100 pips lower down - I'm with 0.8 open on sale and with a $ 650 loss from Friday
  • #363,805
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:35am Feb 16, 2014 9:35am
Quoting yosi408
All today I prayed to God that the gbpusd open 100 pips lower down - I'm with 0.8 open on sale and with a $ 650 loss from Friday
I shorted Gbp/jpy.....

let's take a look here

http://www.xe.com/
  • #363,806
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:37am Feb 16, 2014 9:37am
GBP/USD


The GBP/USD made a 350 pip up surge last week after the interest rate announcement and I think we will see more of this in the coming couple of weeks. However like anything in these markets it won't be without it's retracements and I suspect the GBP/USD could be on the verge of a big one. A 50% retracement on the last upsurge would bring it back to around 16600 nearly 150 pips from its current high, also a previous resistance level. Currently touching on the 2011 highs we might see this retracement sooner rather than later. However if the 16750 level breaks and becomes support the return to 17000 that I predicted for the middle of the year could come sooner than expected.

see more of my analysis​
BOAFX Trading Signal Solutions
  • #363,807
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:07am Feb 16, 2014 10:07am
Weekend Market has opened - it's live here:
www.xe.com
I see Beasts. I drop my scalpel and beckon to theatre nurse: "Charts!&
RubiconFund Return Today: na
  • #363,808
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:08am Feb 16, 2014 10:08am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Good day GU for the visual technicians. the widening symmetrical wedge pattern (megaphone) is bullish if price enters from the bottom of the wedge. This pattern meets the criteria and has a 30% above breakout forecast. #wiseguys should look at the one hour chart for support and entry. I've already noted a bearish advancing block, fully expecting a pullback in the early part of the week, then further advance. Note disaster economics will be a feature of the next few weeks. So let's discuss bullish or bearish? in the very short term, bearish...
un this case megaphone is not a bullish its strong bearish and we are on top now
  • #363,809
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:17am Feb 16, 2014 10:17am
Nothing happen on the cable for a gap. But a gap of 25 pips on AUD/USD, and I am long on GBP/AUD.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,810
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:26am Feb 16, 2014 10:26am
Quoting reclude82
{quote} un this case megaphone is not a bullish its strong bearish and we are on top now

Both probabilities exist (Its trading of course they do)

The symmetrical broadening top is a bullish continuation pattern. The pattern is formed by two symmetrical horizontal lines that are divergent. So it is a inverted symmetrical triangle or an open triangle. The oscillations between the two bands of the triangle are therefore becoming more and more sizable. Each line must be touched at least twice for validation.

The symmetrical broadening top shows the growing nervousness of investors but also their indecisiveness. If the pattern is not identified quickly, the movement may seem totally random and thus trapping many investors.

The formation of this pattern should be preceded by an upward movement. This pattern is often due to profit taking that will lead to the formation of new lows. However, the buying pressure remains strong and the indecisiveness is dominating.

The target price is given by plotting the height of the triangle at its start on the breakpoint. Another technique is to extend the maximum height of the triangle on the breakpoint

In 53% of cases, there is an upward exit
- In 75% of cases, the target of the pattern is reached by taking the maximum height of the triangle. With a downward exit, the percentage felt to 64%
- More than 72% of cases, downward breakout occur when the price is into the highest third of its annual range. No bullish breakouts have been identified into the lowest third of the annual range.


Notes
- Indecisiveness pattern

- Bullish breakouts have more potential

- From the 5th rotation (ie the fifth points of contact on either resistance or support), there are 80% of chances that the exit will occur at the next contact point with the support or resistance of the symmetrical triangle . From the sixth rotation, this percentage rises to 96%.

Reference Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: symmetrical-broadening-top bullish.png Size: 34 KB


GU Daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Daily.png Size: 38 KB


It'll be interesting either way, the most immediate move is going to be bearish (advance block signal of 4H chart)

G/L
  • #363,811
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:31am Feb 16, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Psychologist
I think Carney has clearly adopted a dovish stance. I am really surprised that why so many FF members think that the Cable should gap up on Monday open. Let's call it a cognitive disability and read Carney's important remarks : “There are some very big forces that are operatingnow and will persist,” Carney told BBC’s “The Andrew Marr Show” today, citing weakness in Europe, repair of public balance sheets and improvements to the financial system. “All of those forces conspire collectively to keep the...
Thank you for the complete analysis about Carney's speech
  • #363,812
  • Edited 11:07am Feb 16, 2014 10:34am | Edited 11:07am
I am surprised nobody is talking about the obvious correlation

EU 1.37 more or less and not breaking higher
GU 167.50

GU 1.70?
EU 1.40+ these two numbers should be in sink.Not happening.GU can't appreciate without EU coming along.Its obvious market does not have confidence on Euro.
This is the key to puzzle.GU will come down to be inline with Euro.Once selling resumes on Euro GU will dive even harder since it is over stretched.
EU 1.35 1st target and by May possibly 1.31 when Greek elections takes place.

Key fib extension 127.2 at 6780
Strong possible number for reversal.

Notice GU has the highest correlation to EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 15 KB
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,813
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:09am Feb 16, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Zeenia
What about the fundamentals here? Storms and floods have ruined a great part of the UK for nearly 2 weeks,and its still ongoing.This will take billions to repair.How can the cable still be at 1.6750?How on earth could it rise further?
I'm looking for GBP data to start falling off a cliff these next weeks for good selling opportunities once it tops out.
This straight up drive is due for a good correction I think.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,814
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:16am Feb 16, 2014 11:16am
Quoting Davit
I am surprised nobody is talking about the obvious correlation EU 1.37 more or less and not breaking higher GU 167.50 GU 1.70? EU 1.40+ these two numbers should be in sink.Not happening.GU can't appreciate without EU coming along.Its obvious market does not have confidence on Euro. This is the key to puzzle.GU will come down to be inline with Euro.Once selling resumes on Euro GU will dive even harder since it is over stretched. EU 1.35 1st target and by May possibly 1.31 when Greek elections takes place. Key fib extension 127.2 at 6780 Strong possible...
Given EG chart, the following show of increasing strength by GBP is interesting vs EUR

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG correlation.png Size: 92 KB
  • #363,815
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:21am Feb 16, 2014 11:21am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Given EG chart, the following show of increasing strength by GBP is interesting vs EUR {image}
Clear evidence of out of sink factor.
.88 is extremely strong and 3month period pretty much same.On weekly highest .94
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,816
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:22am Feb 16, 2014 11:22am
Right now showing open of 1.6760
  • #363,817
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:24am Feb 16, 2014 11:24am
Right now, sky is the limit. Flood in Britain influence will be seen net month :/
  • #363,818
  • Edited 11:43am Feb 16, 2014 11:31am | Edited 11:43am
I see a possible move to low-mid 1.68 before any 50pip correction is possible. Reason being people are still short from every single level (with a concentration at 1.6650) while even strong conviction longs have been very eager to take profits off the table to reevaluate a possible better re-entry point. At least this is the impression I get from the forum and the data.
So MM will make money from take profits from longs eager to lock in at 1.67-1.6750 and forced short stop-outs between 1.6750-1.68xx (the margin call zone for shorts in mid 1.66). At the end the MM will have flat position from this activity
It should be apparent that tons of traders don't stop out unless they are forced to by their brokers and this is probably the only way
  • #363,819
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:44am Feb 16, 2014 11:44am
Quoting eurusd_trade
I see a possible move to low-mid 1.68 before any 50pip correction is possible. Reason being people are still short from every single level while even strong conviction longs have been very eager to take profits off the table to reevaluate a possible better re-entry point. At least this is the impression I get from the forum and the data. So MM will make money from take profits from longs eager to lock in at 1.67-1.6750 and forced short stop-outs between 1.6750-1.68xx (the margin call zone).. It should be apparent that tons of traders don't stop...
Good thinking. Many accounts should be close to a margin call, if they held on to their shorts from 1,6500. So why should the market makers not take out their accounts first before any retracement? Should be fitting to the cruel reality of the FX market. And since a lot of people do not know what is a margin call ... they might get stopped by their brokers as you said.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,820
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:44am Feb 16, 2014 11:44am
Almost 25 pips up gap at 1.6767 in the moment. It seems to be keep going above right now, and it won't be surprise for 50 pips in coming 2 hours time. At last I can see my hope on GBP/AUD.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
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