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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,781
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:10am Feb 16, 2014 7:10am
Quoting samooh
{quote} It means it's a broadening funnel targeting 1.6245
exactly
  • #363,782
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:12am Feb 16, 2014 7:12am
Quoting zaghloul
Any ideas how to gauge the gap? Is there any data for weekend transactions out there?
Watch http://www.xe.com/ in 5-6 hours.
  • #363,783
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:14am Feb 16, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} There are so many indicators in you chart that it took me a while to find the candles . whats a megaphone pattern anyways ??
like djia chart on m1 big drop can come targetting below 7000

Now i hope you know already what does it mean :-)
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  • #363,784
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:15am Feb 16, 2014 7:15am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Watch http://www.xe.com/ in 5-6 hours.
Thanks
  • #363,785
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:16am Feb 16, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} There are so many indicators in you chart that it took me a while to find the candles . whats a megaphone pattern anyways ??
why so many
bollinger bands, mva 50,200 thats all
  • #363,786
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:17am Feb 16, 2014 7:17am
Quoting samooh
{quote} It means it's a broadening funnel targeting 1.6245
the train is heading to River Thames (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ver-flood.html)
‘Difficult Time’

“This is a time for everyone to get on with the jobs that they have,” Cameron said as he visited Portland in Dorset yesterday. “I’m only interested in one thing and that’s making sure everything the government can do is being done and will go on being done to help people through this difficult time.”
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  • #363,787
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:29am Feb 16, 2014 7:29am
According to what Carney says here:

“What we haven’t seen yet is business investment picking up and we certainly haven’t really seen net exports recovering,” Carney told the BBC. “It’s going to be very difficult on that export side. Europe is still weak, sterling is stronger, so the key to this recovery -- sustaining this recovery -- is going to be around business investment.”

I doubt this will make people think the sterling should be stronger! Instead, it seems Carney says that the pound is strong and as a result the exports are not good.
  • #363,788
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:29am Feb 16, 2014 7:29am
Quoting reclude82
{quote} why so many bollinger bands, mva 50,200 thats all
Dont take it badly, Im simply not used to so many indicators in a chart. By the way, thank you for the megaphone pattern explanation. Did you learn it from babypips ??
  • #363,789
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:34am Feb 16, 2014 7:34am
Quoting Carlicus
According to what Carney says here: “What we haven’t seen yet is business investment picking up and we certainly haven’t really seen net exports recovering,” Carney told the BBC. “It’s going to be very difficult on that export side. Europe is still weak, sterling is stronger, so the key to this recovery -- sustaining this recovery -- is going to be around business investment.” I...
We are in a currency war. Pretty much every central bank are talking their currency down. What Carney wont have a big impact on the GBP until he start making threat about intervening or QE. Japan and Switzerland were the only country who were serious enough to have an impact on their currency.
  • #363,790
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:39am Feb 16, 2014 7:39am
analogy
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  • #363,791
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:42am Feb 16, 2014 7:42am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} What happen if you are driving a sport car at the maximum speed for a long period of time ?? Well eventually you will have to slow down and stop at the gas station. After that you will be able to continue. The same thing applies to trend. They cant run forever, they have to pause and then continue. I hope it helped you understand my position on the GBP/USD
I think this sport car have very big tank of gas. I am in long since last 2 weeks, and finally I get the whole sport car driving a maximum speed with a long period time. I thought it will slow down and stop at the gas station, then pay 40 pips for the price. But I was lucky enough to just close the hedging SELL, it continue with the maximum speed of another more than 50 pips. I am wondering when will this sport car slow down to stop at the gas station.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,792
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:49am Feb 16, 2014 7:49am
Quoting kimisiow83
{quote} I think this sport car have very big tank of gas. I am in long since last 2 weeks, and finally I get the whole sport car driving a maximum speed with a long period time. I thought it will slow down and stop at the gas station, then pay 40 pips for the price. But I was lucky enough to just close the hedging SELL, it continue with the maximum speed of another more than 50 pips. I am wondering when will this sport car slow down to stop at the gas station. Regards
make sure you are not heading toward a cliff then. Your car might be able to run for a couple days with the amount of high impact news that we are about to get this week.

There are two important chart. One is the weekly chart and the other is the monthly chart showing a strong level of resistance :
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  • #363,793
  • Feb 16, 2014 8:25am Feb 16, 2014 8:25am
Mark Carney says UK housing market in widespread recovery

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26216141

Seems like the BBC's take on the interview is pretty upbeat. Headlines like this matter in the short term. I think its gaping up.
  • #363,794
  • Feb 16, 2014 8:36am Feb 16, 2014 8:36am
Quoting zaghloul
Mark Carney says UK housing market in widespread recovery http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26216141 Seems like the BBC's take on the interview is pretty upbeat. Headlines like this matter in the short term. I think its gaping up.
u sure? it seems neither upbeat or down. just repeating what carney said. but yes there's nothing bad in carney's speech but nothing hopeful either.
Neutral...
  • #363,795
  • Feb 16, 2014 8:44am Feb 16, 2014 8:44am
The headline is very upbeat. He talked about so many things, but the headline was that housing market is in widespread recovery.
  • #363,796
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:05am Feb 16, 2014 9:05am
Quoting JimmyC
GU Daily Technically speaking this is a pig in a poke right now and the wise, would wait. I’m not saying you’d be buying a top and I’m not saying it’s about to fall to the depths. The presence of the symmetrical widening wedge pattern is a clue to the instability of such rapid moves up. These structures are noted for being bearish, this may prove an exception certain fundamentals are driving this. Watch lower time frames and price action will tell us. Note the RSI / Stochs don’t indicate –ve divergence 200 & 50 sma’s are both pointing up and there...
Good day GU

for the visual technicians.
the widening symmetrical wedge pattern (megaphone) is bullish if price enters from the bottom of the wedge. This pattern meets the criteria and has a 30% above breakout forecast.

#wiseguys should look at the one hour chart for support and entry. I've already noted a bearish advancing block, fully expecting a pullback in the early part of the week, then further advance.

Note disaster economics will be a feature of the next few weeks. So let's discuss bullish or bearish?
in the very short term, bearish major areas of the Thames production zones will experience business interruption. However reconstruction, support and maintenance demand will grow significantly. Services and manufacturing PMI's will therefore be boosted buy a surge in demand for services and materials.

$SPX is bullish and set to make new highs fundamentally moving Pound stocks up. Put it together Short Insurance underwriters, long services, long materials, long Cable.

my 2c
  • #363,797
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:34am Feb 16, 2014 9:34am
I think Carney has clearly adopted a dovish stance. I am really surprised that why so many FF members think that the Cable should gap up on Monday open. Let's call it a cognitive disability and read Carney's important remarks :


“There are some very big forces that are operatingnow and will persist,” Carney told BBC’s “The Andrew Marr Show” today, citing weakness in Europe, repair of public balance sheets and improvements to the financial system. “All of those forces conspire collectively to keep the level of interest rates down.”


Could he stated it more clearly that BoE will NOT raise interest rates anytime soon?!

And for those illusive comments that favor a gap up on Monday because of his remark on improved housing market:

“It means that we can responsibly take our time and only adjust interest rates once more of that slack is used up,” he told the BBC. “The path of monetary policy, the path of interest rates, is going to be calibrated very carefully to ensure that only when we see sustainable growth in jobs, in incomes and in spending will we make adjustments.”

Get it? Carney doesn't even mention housing recovery among the factors in re-adjusting interest rates. He's mainly concerned about employment and the overall level of demand in U.K. economy.

In yet another dovish expression, he tells us that a strong Sterling means problems in export growth:

“What we haven’t seen yet is business investment picking up and we certainly haven’t really seen net exports recovering,” Carney told the BBC. “It’s going to be very difficult on that export side. Europe is still weak, sterling is stronger, so the key to this recovery -- sustaining this recovery -- is going to be around business investment.”

And to make sure that everyone is understanding his message, Carney states:

He said that the central bank’s forecasts published last week show spare capacity persisting if it incorporates investors’ expectation that the key rate is raised to 2 percent in three years’ time.

In other words, the market should NOT expect a rate hike to 2% because this will make the spare capacity persisting.

I think it is better to stay aside until this mad buying spree is vanished and look for selling opportunities around 1.68 to 1.6950 targetting 1.6 and then 1.5.

Regards,
  • #363,798
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:54am Feb 16, 2014 9:54am
I guess regardless of what Carney said the true movement still in the hands of the big traders. It's up to them to decide when to close their position or hold to continue. It's about who has the most money and who's the better manipulator.
Overbought + Oversold + Correction + Indicators = Are Not Equal
  • #363,799
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:12am Feb 16, 2014 10:12am
Quoting Psychologist
I think Carney has clearly adopted a dovish stance. I am really surprised that why so many FF members think that the Cable should gap up on Monday open. Let's call it a cognitive disability and read Carney's important remarks : “There are some very big forces that are operatingnow and will persist,” Carney told BBC’s “The Andrew Marr Show” today, citing weakness in Europe, repair of public balance sheets and improvements to the financial system. “All of those forces conspire collectively to keep the...

nice post..its nice to see someone actually break it down
I myself am amazed at this buying..i expected it but not like this

carney is basically saying raising interest rates is pointless because people will suffer
raising rates would work stop buying power of property if people were taking out a mortgage and the majority is not..so its pointless

i think he wants a weaker currency but the people with money are causing a housing bubble..just my take on it despite being in a bad position trade wise
  • #363,800
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:15am Feb 16, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} make sure you are not heading toward a cliff then. Your car might be able to run for a couple days with the amount of high impact news that we are about to get this week. There are two important chart. One is the weekly chart and the other is the monthly chart showing a strong level of resistance : {image} {image}
I am not going to pay more for the gas actually. Thanks for advise and I need to be very careful with the cliff as the road is getting more and more tight, otherwise I will be went down to the cliff. I have good R:R with the earlier position, so I'll just let the sport car turbo finished their gas, and the next probably will ride on a roller coaster instead of sport car anymore. If I am not wrong, I did mentioned here earlier it was too early for the cable to became roller coaster, so probably it is getting nearer and nearer now except it is riding on Formula One with hundred liters of fuel.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
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