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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,761
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:18am Feb 16, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I don't think any Bear here thinks low rates are forever.You are poorly projecting... lets see if you can elevate quality of your posts by each number of posts... number 15 coming...

Someone's grumpy this morning. I can see no correlation between post count and thread quality. Case and point: your last aggressive post which added zero value.
  • #363,762
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:37am Feb 16, 2014 4:37am
I'll be looking at a corrective move towards 1,64xx area before any chance for 1,7xxx.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #363,763
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:41am Feb 16, 2014 4:41am
Quoting kuroro001
I'll be looking at a corrective move towards 1,64xx area before any chance for 1,7xxx.

same here and i think 1.6490-1.6510 is possible i got 5.5 lots short from 1.6648 and SL 30pips higher
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #363,764
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:57am Feb 16, 2014 4:57am
http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp...n_jobs_incomes
  • #363,765
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:59am Feb 16, 2014 4:59am
Quoting ozboy
http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp...n_jobs_incomes

How will it affect gbp pairs?
  • #363,766
  • Feb 16, 2014 5:01am Feb 16, 2014 5:01am
The Bank of England will only start to increase interest rates when the economy is operating at closer to full capacity, central bank governor Mark Carney said in an interview broadcast on Sunday. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/16/britain-boe-carney-idUSL6N0LL07A20140216)

so there is no increase interest rates until next year? wooh
  • #363,767
  • Feb 16, 2014 5:10am Feb 16, 2014 5:10am
Not necessarily. If the numbers keep coming back good, the interest rates could hike sooner. Carney never gave a time frame, he only gave the metrics which need to improve. His new forward guidance however makes the claimant figures far less important then they were in the past.
  • #363,768
  • Feb 16, 2014 5:15am Feb 16, 2014 5:15am
Quoting jimi
{quote} How will it affect gbp pairs?
you can read the basic from:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/050704.asp

2. Differentials in Interest Rates
Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly correlated.
By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates, and changing interest rates impact inflation and currency values.

**Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to rise.**

The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the currency down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates - that is, lower interest rates tend to decrease exchange rates. (For further reading, see What Is Fiscal Policy?)

But it doesn't mean that GBP is weaken tomorrow. I expect a corrective move from this long time resistance
  • #363,769
  • Feb 16, 2014 5:56am Feb 16, 2014 5:56am
Quote
lol@ 11% of FF members who trade gbpusd are long and 89% are short obviously everybody expect gbpusd to drop


That usually means it is going higher.


Look for a close below a gap up open to get short OR weekly 1.272 fib extension levels 1.6790-1.6820 if it rallies into that region.
  • #363,770
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:03am Feb 16, 2014 6:03am
Quoting ozpips
{quote} That usually means it is going higher. Look for a close below a gap up open to get short OR weekly 1.272 fib extension levels 1.6790-1.6820 if it rallies into that region.
Oh really??During the last swing up (24 Jan), 90% FF traders where also shorting the pair. If it was so easy as using FF as a contrarian indicator .... many people would be rich. And in my opinion, it is too late to go long right now when the pair is in a long term resistance point, and when there is a currency war where countries want to weaken their currency in order to export more goods. Getting long near a top is very risky unless it is very short term and with a tight stop loss.
  • #363,771
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:13am Feb 16, 2014 6:13am
Quoting eqshack
{quote} same here and i think 1.6490-1.6510 is possible i got 5.5 lots short from 1.6648 and SL 30pips higher

i got a total of 5 lots short gu. had a 0.5 sell limit at 6670 friday morning b4 london open and took a 4.5 lot short 6750 b4 newyork close. i knw at some point its retracing.
  • #363,772
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:17am Feb 16, 2014 6:17am
Quoting ozboy
http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp...n_jobs_incomes

hmmm, so we all will be attaching heavy importance to coming gbp data.
  • #363,773
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:17am Feb 16, 2014 6:17am
And just as an example, look at what people was saying a couple of days before Jan 24, when it started dropping to 1.62320.

Quoting JimmyC
Retail traders are being impatient... Instead of waiting for the pull-back to go long they try to catch the top... Nett effect short squeeze. The trend is your friend Don't take positions against the trend If in doubt stay outI appreciate no one wants to buy the top but there is no reason to sell this. I still have final target 1.675 after 1.66 swing high... If you counter trend without a good reason, just cause it looks high... Enjoy the drawdown Just an example of what might happen... yes I know the pattern is not valid... {image}
  • #363,774
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:39am Feb 16, 2014 6:39am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Can you explain what you see using the chart?
What happen if you are driving a sport car at the maximum speed for a long period of time ??

Well eventually you will have to slow down and stop at the gas station. After that you will be able to continue. The same thing applies to trend. They cant run forever, they have to pause and then continue.

I hope it helped you understand my position on the GBP/USD
  • #363,775
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:40am Feb 16, 2014 6:40am
i smell gap-up or down?
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #363,776
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:48am Feb 16, 2014 6:48am
Quoting Suffo
i smell gap-up or down?
hopefully up so that I can sell it
  • #363,777
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:52am Feb 16, 2014 6:52am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} hopefully up so that I can sell it
megaphone pattern on h4 ? does somebody know what does it mean? :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #363,778
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:56am Feb 16, 2014 6:56am
Quoting reclude82
{quote} megaphone pattern on h4 ? does somebody know what does it mean? :-) {image}
There are so many indicators in you chart that it took me a while to find the candles . whats a megaphone pattern anyways ??
  • #363,779
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:57am Feb 16, 2014 6:57am
Any ideas how to gauge the gap? Is there any data for weekend transactions out there?
  • #363,780
  • Feb 16, 2014 6:59am Feb 16, 2014 6:59am
Quoting reclude82
{quote} megaphone pattern on h4 ? does somebody know what does it mean? :-) {image}
It means it's a broadening funnel targeting 1.6245
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