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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,581
  • Feb 14, 2014 9:56am Feb 14, 2014 9:56am
OMG since i have been o this thread this night is the most i have ever read , every body has an opinion 1 yes we are all right but 2 we are all wrong ? it will not meet the expectations of tecs or of trend lines , the fall or rise will happen in what i will call no mans land this is 75% fib of a move or correction, a place where banks and hedge fund managers bring retail traders with out them knowing where their down fall is,??? and they do this hours before you know . it will look like a green candle up and a red candle down with no wick at the top ,This is only my opinion, my 2pence worth in this crazy game that we play, the most crazy way of trying to make money, all traders here have at one time read , thought, dream t of an easy way of making a shit load of cash by sitting at their pc and trying to predict were their dream should be, the cleaver people get out , but the even cleaver people can make money out of this game , look for the unexpected the gap were you would not sell o buy . but you wont find this only in highnsite will you ever know .

  • #363,582
  • Feb 14, 2014 9:56am Feb 14, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Suffo
no,1.6720
Sorry, typo ... 1,6716 is the pivot point.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,583
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:00am Feb 14, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} For me it's not annoying, but I only would like to learn from somebody who makes things right, and can prove it over a long period of time I have followed many people who shows their results here in trade explorer, but suddenly their tradeexplorer dissapears, or their account is just a month long. The most recent case I have observed was from a guy who was profitable every single day, earning 2K usd a week and has almost no losses, but suddenly this unbelivable Cable uptrend drove him nuts, and he ended up shorting 10 lots!! With a 7K usd...
Well the #1 reason you shouldn't try to catch any top here is because of the GBP data points next week. Last GBP cycle a wave of data points sent the GBP rocketing higher and this time around all the real money and macro guys are ALL front-running the potentially good data. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So you can't find a single seller in smart money. Plus you're out of multi-year ranges and people think GU is going to follow in the likes of GC's and UC's footsteps. I thnk UC had nary a pullback from 1.06 - 1.10 until the mid 1.09s when people finally realized 1.10 was inevitable. Have a look at the PA in early January there, it took a fast upward capitulation for UC to pull back.
  • #363,584
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:02am Feb 14, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Suffo
sell 725 sl 740 half lots
out 727
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #363,585
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:04am Feb 14, 2014 10:04am
Call it an opinion, but looking at the whole market, the US-Dollar seems to be done. Long USD looks like suicide to me right now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,586
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:05am Feb 14, 2014 10:05am
buy 727 sl 711
half lots
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #363,587
  • Edited 10:36am Feb 14, 2014 10:23am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Well the #1 reason you shouldn't try to catch any top here is because of the GBP data points next week. Last GBP cycle a wave of data points sent the GBP rocketing higher and this time around all the real money and macro guys are ALL front-running the potentially good data. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So you can't find a single seller in smart money. Plus you're out of multi-year ranges and people think GU is going to follow in the likes of GC's and UC's footsteps. I thnk UC had nary a pullback from 1.06 - 1.10...
For me, and I know I'm going to get criticized by some for this, is that after UJ to 100, AU to 0.90, EJ to 14x/GJ to 17x and then back, UC to 1.10, the next phase to complete is GU to 1.70 and finally EU to 1.40, and probably UJ also back to 100 with the most recent USD selling theme. I give this a conservative 6 months to happen (in reality may be much less), and make no guarantees on the path we take to these destinations. But this is my opinion for now. If GJ continues to stabilize at 170 and EJ continues to stabilize at 140 in the near term, that gives even more credence in this view as it suggests we will finally see some reduced volatility and consolidation in the JPY crosses.
  • #363,588
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:25am Feb 14, 2014 10:25am
out be
and good night
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #363,589
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:34am Feb 14, 2014 10:34am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Well the #1 reason you shouldn't try to catch any top here is because of the GBP data points next week. Last GBP cycle a wave of data points sent the GBP rocketing higher and this time around all the real money and macro guys are ALL front-running the potentially good data. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So you can't find a single seller in smart money. Plus you're out of multi-year ranges and people think GU is going to follow in the likes of GC's and UC's footsteps. I thnk UC had nary a pullback from 1.06 - 1.10...
Yeah, the situation is pretty similar, but if you look at the charts attached, I would say that there are some differences. For example, in the first chart (USDCAD weekly), the third time the pair hit the multiyear high, it was a lot of struggle (5 weeks), and the price was in the median line of the pitchfork.

In the second chart (GBPUSD weekly), the price is just hitting the top of april 2011, and the difference with UC is that the price is hitting the upper line of the pitchfork. So for me, from a technical point of view, there is a great difference, since the price should go back to the median line in GU.

I know you are talking about fundamentals, which is something I should care about more, but I also think that charts contain enough information.

By the way, to which date are you referring when you say "Last GBP cycle a wave of data points sent the GBP rocketing higher"? I would like to have a look at it on the charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #363,590
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:37am Feb 14, 2014 10:37am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} For me, and I know I'm going to get criticized by some for this, is that after UJ to 100, AU to 0.90, EJ to 14x/GJ to 17x and then back, UC to 1.10, the next phase to complete is GU to 1.70 and finally EU to 1.40, and probably UJ also back to 100 with the most recent USD selling theme. I give this a conservative 6 months to happen (in reality may be much less), and make no guarantees on the path we take to these destinations. But this is my opinion for now.
You have a very high opinion of yourself and your prognostication abilities, don't you?
Really, the chances that any of us can forecast where any single pair is going over even the next 7 days is very low. The chances that we (and that includes you) can predict where multiple pairs are going to go in the next six months is astronomically low.
But still you try eh. Such confidence.
It is a foolish endeavour, but we do it because it's human nature to do it. Which is fine. We are engaged in a perpetual exercise of self-deceit. But please don't lecture us as if you're some kind of almighty guru bestowing his incredible wisdom on his wayward confused children in such a feat of benevolence that he probably walks around with a halo over his head.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #363,591
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:45am Feb 14, 2014 10:45am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Well look I have no grudge against you if you want to ignore me that's fine but look man, I know I'm not always right, but often times I'm giving some useful insights to people As you can see here EG continues to decline as I just said moments ago. results will always matter more than style Many GBP shorts are super pissed on this and it's a good lesson for everyone to understand what not to do When you tell people you GUARANTEE their shorts will make money 50 pips in front of 3 GBP news events next week and these EG stops that's a bit deceptive...
1.
You stay on my ignore and I have no reasons to read your senseless posts. I really know what i'm doing, if i enter a trade.

2.
Quoting Schickeria
added more shorts on GU @ 1.6720 1.6667 should be norm and minimum target maybe we go to 1.6747 before but my 50 Profit are for me sure {image}
If i get toasted now it's my problem not yours.

I posted here maybe we go to 1.6747 before and we popped up higher as my entry @ 1.6720 . If you can read i posted but my 50 Profit are for me sure. It means FOR ME and NOT FOR YOU!!!! And i don't posted nothing more - if you can read ???? What is wrong on my post now? Guarantee is for ME and NOT FOR YOU!

3. Today is Friday 14. February 2014 and i'm trading today and enter my trades today and not on Wednesday next week what you are jabbering here. If you know trading is always dangerous and you don't need to post if is any SELL or BUY dangerous. May be that is dangerous....
Inserted Video


4. Your nonsens of 1.80/81 currently playing no role.

5. No one here is interested what Banks are doing and how much money they earn per day. HFT bla...bla....

6. I give a shit on NEWS and i don't trade news -

When you talk about 1.80/81 higher levels where is your entry next week and your SL for 1.80 ??? Please do not say that you long since weeks ago. A good trader find always good entrypoints for 1.8xxx. Please post this without anything (ONLY LEVELS) - if you can????
  • #363,592
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:45am Feb 14, 2014 10:45am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Yeah, the situation is pretty similar, but if you look at the charts attached, I would say that there are some differences. For example, in the first chart (USDCAD weekly), the third time the pair hit the multiyear high, it was a lot of struggle (5 weeks), and the price was in the median line of the pitchfork. In the second chart (GBPUSD weekly), the price is just hitting the top of april 2011, and the difference with UC is that the price is hitting the upper line of the pitchfork. So for me, from a technical point of view, there is a great...
Last GBP cycle refers to last month's equivalent of next week's cycle of GBP data.
Jan 17 - GBP retail sales (London spike)
Jan 21 - IMF upgrades UK economic forecast (NYC morning spike)
Jan 22 - GBP claimant count (London spike)
  • #363,593
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:48am Feb 14, 2014 10:48am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 1. You stay on my ignore and I have no reasons to read your senseless posts. I really know what i'm doing, if i enter a trade. 2. {quote} If i get toasted now it's my problem not yours. I posted here maybe we go to 1.6747 before and we popped up higher as my entry @ 1.6720 . If you can read i posted but my 50 Profit are for me sure. It means FOR ME and NOT FOR YOU!!!! And i don't posted nothing more - if you can read ???? What is wrong on my post now? Guarantee is for ME and NOT FOR YOU! 3. Today is Friday 14. February 2014...
Try to calm down. I never said you wouldn't ever be able to take profit, nor did I say anything about 18000 (I'm talking about 17000). Anyone is free to ignore me if they find my posts annoying or unhelpful. In the meantime, consider that you got emotional and added another short at 16720 when you KNEW the EG was falling and you decided to add to your loser anyway. I'm just trying to be rational here and point that out. If you thought 16748 was possible why not wait to add there if you believe so strongly in shorting?

No I was not long down from 1.63. But I was long from 1.66 to 1.6660. Then I took it. Then I got long again from 1.6660 up to 1.6700 where I took it. Then finally I got short EURGBP from 0.8195 down to 0.8180 where I took it. So yes, I missed most of the move. But I recognized when it was an unstoppable trend and got in appropriately. Everybody following me in the GU and EU threads knows I've been a relentless bull of this ever since 1.658x and I rarely get this confident about a move. The retail positioning together with next week's fundamental data really set me off.
  • #363,594
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:49am Feb 14, 2014 10:49am
Attached Image
Gone to a better place
  • #363,595
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:53am Feb 14, 2014 10:53am
Quoting smikester
{image}
That shows how absurd it is.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,596
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:57am Feb 14, 2014 10:57am
Quoting smikester
{image}
And not only that! If you look at the extended info, the average entry price is 1.6516!!! That's more than 200 pips away!
Attached Image
  • #363,597
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:58am Feb 14, 2014 10:58am
when UJ was 105 people were projecting 110 coming
dropped 400pips back to 100.70 now its at 101.88

To project GU to 1.70+without any correction is unlikely.UK economy is not yet that stellar.No this is not an"excuse" Its reality.
If you look at Pound crosses they are no extreme new highs or even great highs most are actually below previous highs. G/CHF has not even broken 1.4950 yet down from 1.51.This suggest more USD perceived weakness rather pound strength.
I call it Yellen factor. Maybe in her next presentation if not mistaken this weds She could be more assertive realizing her mistake of being seating duck on her 1st testimony.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,598
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:59am Feb 14, 2014 10:59am
Any takers here? Selling 1.673x, put an SL above 1.6753ish?

Fundamentally Carney's shifts in foward guidance were dovish, as the next rate hike is now based on a much broader set of vague indicators. There are three major UK releases next week as well. IF these releases do not confirm the BoE's rationale for massively hiking 2014 gdp projections, GBP will trade lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #363,599
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:00am Feb 14, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Davit
when UJ was 105 people were projecting 110 coming dropped 400pips back to 100.70 now its at 101.88 To project GU to 1.70+without any correction is unlikely.UK economy is not yet that stellar.No this is not an"excuse" Its reality.
No one's projecting it with no correction. But this time the psychological case is particularly strong. There was never a strong psychological case for 110 (it only went to 105 not 108). Plus before the highs in UJ were 103 so the psychological case was for 105.
Particularly as UJ approaches 100, GJ having touched 170 already, EJ having touched 140 already, it only makes sense that EU and GU make the 14000 and 17000 handles at some point.
With 75-90%+ shorts to long, we could get there sooner than people think with good impending data. If the UK economy isn't so strong and the data disappoints well we could take longer.
Also, the EC and GC story. I've said this before. I don't make any claims on the path beacuse it's always going to be data-dependent. The EU rally was seriously thrown off twice first by a missed inflation report, then second time got thrown off again by a big holiday capitulation towards 1.389x which set off another pullback. Will we have that again? Maybe, maybe not. UC was a fairly straightforward move to 1.10. You have to pay attention to the PA.
  • #363,600
  • Feb 14, 2014 11:02am Feb 14, 2014 11:02am
Quoting Davit
when UJ was 105 people were projecting 110 coming dropped 400pips back to 100.70 now its at 101.88 To project GU to 1.70+without any correction is unlikely.UK economy is not yet that stellar.No this is not an"excuse" Its reality.
We do not know what will happen. But a fact is that a lot of shorts have drowned since Wednesday. I am done with any counter trend trading, it makes no sense long term.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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