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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,341
  • Feb 13, 2014 5:48pm Feb 13, 2014 5:48pm
whatever situation at the market

after all trader's they will close their position soon or later..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #363,342
  • Feb 13, 2014 6:05pm Feb 13, 2014 6:05pm
lol what is this in GJ? lol tokyo open stop hunt huh? fool us every time, usually it's welly,. i guess it makes sense, NY folks out to dinner, fewest number of people paying attention, london asleep
  • #363,343
  • Feb 13, 2014 6:38pm Feb 13, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting mied
just curious.. the chart wont move.. if stall for to long at this area it will make the possibility to go down make sensible n reasonable.. why ? just my concern at the psychologycal point of view after all the short retailler need money to withdraw at this weekend n remember this is friday you all who short retailler always need some money? even if you hold buy and doesnt plan to withdraw your money you always need to close your position because if youre not close the position your profit always became your imaginary number on your account..thats...

What you call a stall, some other people call a consolidation.
  • #363,344
  • Feb 13, 2014 6:42pm Feb 13, 2014 6:42pm
Am I right about this?

There is a difference between the retail trader and the institutional trader that is significant.

Mathematically speaking, the most profitable way to trade would be to close your profits after an extreme move in your direction, and then take up a new position towards the trend after a slight correction.

The problem with doing this as a retail trader is leverage. If you have a buy position and it goes up 100 pips and you sell, then it goes down 20 and you buy, you may be forced to close your position if it goes against you at that point. If you just hold, you're 80 pips in profit. If you buy and it drops 20, your broker thinks you're 20 pips to the negative.

If you're an institutional, you have enough leverage that it doesn't matter.

Regardless if you agree with me if anyone can call the market like this, am I correct about the opening and closing positions aspect? If you are 100 pips in profit, close your position, and then reopen a new one, you can run into more trouble than if you just hold your original position?
  • #363,345
  • Edited 7:04pm Feb 13, 2014 6:45pm | Edited 7:04pm
he's right that stalls tend to create small pullbacks but you shouldn't really get your hopes up for a large pullback. hoping for 1.6625 is reasonable, a break of that would be unlikely tomorrow but amazing opening up possibly 1.6600 or 1.6575 but anything through 1.6550 before next tuesday is probably a pipe dream.
people are just looking for an excuse to ram through these offers in the 6x-8x range but until then some small noise is expected.

for me the difference between a stall and a consolidation is this:
in a consolidation people are still trading but buyers and sellers balanced
in a stall nobody's trading and the price has failed to continue in the same direction
stalls aren't really reversal signals but can suggest a mini retracement.
in my view R/R however is poor for shorts at any level except 6x and even they must have a flip stop above today's highs.
  • #363,346
  • Feb 13, 2014 6:51pm Feb 13, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting mied
just curious.. the chart wont move.. if stall for to long at this area it will make the possibility to go down make sensible n reasonable.. why ? just my concern at the psychologycal point of view after all the short retailler need money to withdraw at this weekend n remember this is friday you all who short retailler always need some money? even if you hold buy and doesnt plan to withdraw your money you always need to close your position because if youre not close the position your profit always became your imaginary number on your account..thats...
Thinking the same.
I like this stall for shorts.

Let's see...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,347
  • Feb 13, 2014 6:52pm Feb 13, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} What you call a stall, some other people call a consolidation.

i call this market stall because both ways (bear n bull) wont take action unless one side close their position..

and thats will creat some retrace..

and that direction will move the market even higher or even lower..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #363,348
  • Feb 13, 2014 7:14pm Feb 13, 2014 7:14pm
If a stall is less trading and failure to continue in the same direction, then I've got some bad news. At this time every day, after new York close until about an hour before London open, we stall.

Yesterday was an exception to that.
  • #363,349
  • Feb 13, 2014 7:36pm Feb 13, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting Baggi
If a stall is less trading and failure to continue in the same direction, then I've got some bad news. At this time every day, after new York close until about an hour before London open, we stall. Yesterday was an exception to that.
some people call stall and other call consolidation.. that's not the matter.. at my place this condition call "MOGOK" and we will shout it loud "Tarik manggg, mainkan-mainkan mang..yu mari" , i dont call this will be reverse the direction but maybe can trigered n make so tempting situation to make another OP.. but now my view doesn't change.. 1,666 is devilish number and she always going down at this number... but for me down or up is no big deal because i have my own strategy for this pair..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #363,350
  • Feb 13, 2014 7:48pm Feb 13, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting Baggi
If a stall is less trading and failure to continue in the same direction, then I've got some bad news. At this time every day, after new York close until about an hour before London open, we stall. Yesterday was an exception to that.
The point I think some are trying to make is that a stall like this with no follow through after yesterday's crappy numbers, is more typical of the news being already priced in and the market being at a turning point on any given time scale.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,351
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:29pm Feb 13, 2014 9:29pm
The toughest part for me in these turn arounds/reversals is the stop clearing.

Let's suppose for a moment that we do go down from here. Does anyone think we'll go straight down? I doubt it. Most likely what will happen is, we'll head up 30-50 pips really fast, clear through a bunch of short stops, and then head down.

That's been my short experience with forex. I haven't figured out a way around this yet. Three possibilities.

1) When I think we are at the top, by very small lot's so that if I'm wrong, it doesn't hurt that much. CON: I don't make much of anything this way.
2) Try and wait for this to happen and then sell like the dickens. CON: I'm usually wrong.
3) Don't put in a stop. CON: Goodbye account if I'm wrong.
  • #363,352
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:31pm Feb 13, 2014 9:31pm
Very good posts here!! Baggi +1 to you mate! Must have been big players putting orders in yesterday as we didnt have any economic events going on at the time that would make it move like that. Today market just waits for imbalance between bulls and bears as we matched now at this devil 1.6666 resistance hahaha!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,353
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:34pm Feb 13, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting Baggi
The toughest part for me in these turn arounds/reversals is the stop clearing. Let's suppose for a moment that we do go down from here. Does anyone think we'll go straight down? I doubt it. Most likely what will happen is, we'll head up 30-50 pips really fast, clear through a bunch of short stops, and then head down. That's been my short experience with forex. I haven't figured out a way around this yet. Three possibilities. 1) When I think we are at the top, by very small lot's so that if I'm wrong, it doesn't hurt that much. CON: I don't make...
Sometimes good to use confirmation by candles aka price so you dont get killed selling on strong bull momentum and have a good place for a stop.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,354
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:02am Feb 14, 2014 12:02am
It's looking toppy to me on 1 and 4hr.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,355
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:04am Feb 14, 2014 12:04am
Quoting Ill-b-back
It's looking toppy to me on 1 and 4hr.

Yeah, I'm going to try a short play if we shoot up really quick in the next hour or two. But I'll put a tight stop on it.
  • #363,356
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:09am Feb 14, 2014 12:09am
1h shows some resistance/exits
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-02-14_010832.png Size: 21 KB
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #363,357
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:10am Feb 14, 2014 12:10am
One thing is very interesting...when price is low,last friday was about 1.638x,everybody talking about TA,trend and further fall...now when price is high everybody talking again about TA,trend and further up...
Dont you all think it's better to buy at low and sell on high???
Same thing on EUR/USD...
  • #363,358
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:10am Feb 14, 2014 12:10am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Yeah, I'm going to try a short play if we shoot up really quick in the next hour or two. But I'll put a tight stop on it.
Yep, tight stop
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,359
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:11am Feb 14, 2014 12:11am
Quoting eaglestar
1h shows some resistance/exits {image}
Again, nice chart
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,360
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:17am Feb 14, 2014 12:17am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Yeah, I'm going to try a short play if we shoot up really quick in the next hour or two. But I'll put a tight stop on it.
GBP crosses have lost ground in Asia session to AUD, CAD, and JPY. EG is also off lows. This reduces the probability of a break higher for now. We almost surely need to wait until data next week or pre-data next week for the push. I wouldn't waste time on GU for now, we had a great session in the JPY, look at something else.
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