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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,301
  • Feb 13, 2014 2:45pm Feb 13, 2014 2:45pm
Here is what I'm seeing. It looks too obvious like this is the top, doesn't it? 75% are short right now because everyone sees, hey, this is the top!

That gives me pause. If everyone is going in the same direction and thinking the same thing, what are the chances this pair is going to move the way everyone expects?
  • #363,302
  • Feb 13, 2014 2:46pm Feb 13, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Baggi
Here is what I'm seeing. It looks too obvious like this is the top, doesn't it? 75% are short right now because everyone sees, hey, this is the top! That gives me pause. If everyone is going in the same direction and thinking the same thing, what are the chances this pair is going to move the way everyone expects?
Seems slim. More likely we go for another 100+ upward.
  • #363,303
  • Feb 13, 2014 2:49pm Feb 13, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Seems slim. More likely we go for another 100+ upward.
another 100? what you just pull that one out of your ass? EHN well just go 100 pips this way no bigggy lol very vague
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,304
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:05pm Feb 13, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} another 100? what you just pull that one out of your ass? EHN well just go 100 pips this way no bigggy lol very vague
1.6746
  • #363,305
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:10pm Feb 13, 2014 3:10pm
1.67 then correction....
  • #363,306
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:22pm Feb 13, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting petetong
Hello thread readers Weekly R3 pivot is at today's hi and with price already travelled 139% of the average weekly range of pips in this moment is there any room for more progress to the north tomorrow - Friday ? Will see how Daily candle closes, and above the present daily hi zone as possible resistance (?) there is a former weekly/ monthly resistance zone that extends to 6744. 6830 is Monthly R2 pivot. Many of the bears on this thread have been telling us it will go down all the way up lol - but at some point they will be right ? Best Wishes.
Funny thing it was exactly the same a couple of weeks ago on the daily down trend for the bulls and then the bears were saying "why buy". The pair is in an obvious weekly range with both bullish and bearish pricing going into obvious strong supply and demand areas, may break through, may not. Its a great area to take a shot at a short from a R:R basis. But then I thought 550 was a high demand area that we would see a reaction back further than it did.

There is a lot of liquidity gaps below so buyers beware, mind the Gaps!!!
  • #363,307
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:24pm Feb 13, 2014 3:24pm
people going to look at this in 3-6 months and laugh.
just like GJ went to 175, so too will GU to 17500 at some point which will then prove resistive from the levels in 2006
then the question will be, why the hell didn't i buy gbp/usd at 1.66?
why the hell didn't i buy usd/cad at 1.06?
that said, we do need a bit of data support.
  • #363,308
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:25pm Feb 13, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Seems slim. More likely we go for another 100+ upward.
Why 100? Why not 200?
Shift happens...
  • #363,309
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:25pm Feb 13, 2014 3:25pm
Fuck it, I am going to heavy short this shit when it gets into the zone 6700 - 6740. I do not expect it to go above 6720 before a serious correction.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #363,310
  • Edited 3:50pm Feb 13, 2014 3:29pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting blackgeorge
{quote} Why 100? Why not 200?
exactly
the retail positioning looks exactly like usd/cad before it broke 1.10. in fact this type of retail positioning ALWAYS shapes up the same way. A market ranges for a long time, then finally a trend goes in one direction for much longer than it historically or typically does, everyone says now is the time to fade. At the very end of the move before the break the most people try to fade thinking it's good R/R and then of course, everything falls apart
don't underestimate the break if it does happen, it's likely to be an extreme move. if not the first time, then the second time around. check usd/cad PA around 1.10, AU after 0.9 the first time
and uc stuck above 1.10 for almost 2 weeks putting retailers into massive pain until they finally gave up and went long
a break could require good data which means it could be hard to catch.
there are so many good reasons to see GU in the 1.7xxx irrespective of other considerations:
GJ has already been in the 17x range
GC broke out of multi-year ranges higher last year!
I might be cautious in 1.68xx though, look at EU experience with 1.38xx. Alternatively in this case GU to 1.7xxx may coincide with EU to 1.4xxx
But it's too early to discuss that. For now, selling at 1.66xx on the way up is madness!
i won't knock the people selling at 1.666x with a tight flip stop intending to go long higher, at least that has somewhat of a chance for something like 30 pips before a break. but the guys trapped under 1.6625, oh dear
  • #363,311
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:48pm Feb 13, 2014 3:48pm
Apparently no stopping GBP/USD.... going to make new highs soon and blast up i guess
  • #363,312
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:49pm Feb 13, 2014 3:49pm
By first 30 mins of Sydney session....we will see cable reaching peak 1.67 then correction until CHN data...Both after Poor AUD and USD data, GBP is the next resort. 2 cent from whatever fundamental learning I have done so far...
  • #363,313
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:49pm Feb 13, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting Baggi
Here is what I'm seeing. It looks too obvious like this is the top, doesn't it? 75% are short right now because everyone sees, hey, this is the top! That gives me pause. If everyone is going in the same direction and thinking the same thing, what are the chances this pair is going to move the way everyone expects?
That's right. And let's just say we are at a top right now (which I SERIOUSLY doubt), the market is not going to let shorts in easy. There will be some maneuvering before any real move down takes place and I bet most the guys on here will be fooled into becoming buyers by then. They'll say, "Look, it's consolidating. It's going to continue north as soon as the numbers come out Friday, and blah, blah, blah." Or you'll hear, "So obvious this is a triangle, wave 4 to be exact. We will travel north now because Elliot Wave says so. Just wait until Wednesday when that bitch, Yellen, speaks. It's going to fly!!". And then you'll hear all the experts spew there BS fundamental crap about why it will go up. That's when you'll know its ready to come down.

This move has made nothing but sellers out of almost everyone on here, so it has a very good chance of continuing on north bound. Of course, there will be some minor reactions, and eventually it WILL top, but when and where is anyone's guess at this point. We are breaking out of range that started over 4 YEARS ago!!

You are on the right path, Braggi. Keep using logic. Very good for a guy with only 5 months under his belt.
  • #363,314
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:56pm Feb 13, 2014 3:56pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kab1.PNG Size: 29 KB
  • #363,315
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:56pm Feb 13, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting JeremyWS
http://macrocreditfx.blogspot.co.uk/...nst-highs.html Im shorting the GBP, strucuted with short vol to cover expense of SL no risk on the spot trade!
And Jeremy, I don't agree with the trade and I don't even understand half of what you write, but your analysis is very interesting and you seem very intelligent. Please keep posting your thoughts.
  • #363,316
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:59pm Feb 13, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}
From your chart, can you tell where it is going to fly without dropping to 1.65 first?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #363,317
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:11pm Feb 13, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} From your chart, can you tell where it is going to fly without dropping to 1.65 first?


Attached Image
  • #363,318
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:13pm Feb 13, 2014 4:13pm
Going crazy by looking like chart, charts diagram by some of the experts here..... My level is - I can understand only how to read candlesticks...nothing more than that. So, most of the thinkgs you guys talk, I have to read couple of time to comprehend.

Currently I am in Buy position…and holding it since the data release, have seen the worst happening, and waiting for the best coming. Any of you expert can explain in Layman terms( preferably in points), what is the supporting argument in any of the direction you are predicting....so that I can take more sensible decision...

Thanks in adv.
  • #363,319
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:16pm Feb 13, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} 1.6746
Now we are talking pal! I like it! I can actually see that on my weekly chart and makes complete sense!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,320
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:23pm Feb 13, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote} {image}
what is that chart?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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