EUR/CHF | Page 575 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #11,481
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:29am Feb 5, 2014 6:29am
Quoting UK-trader
Hello, I just open couple of longs, strong bottom + unlimited rising oportunities.

How has this pair got unlimited rising opportunities?
  • #11,482
  • Feb 9, 2014 10:05am Feb 9, 2014 10:05am
The Swiss just voted in favor of an initiative restricting immigration from the EU. The government and business circles have warned that this outcome could have serious (negative) economic consequences for Switzerland. In my view, this vote and the uncertainty it generates for the Swiss economy could prove to become a key event undermining market confidence in the strength and stability of CHF and triggering a shift in favor of EUR. Thoughts?
  • #11,483
  • Feb 9, 2014 10:54am Feb 9, 2014 10:54am
Quoting Bluedolphin
The Swiss just voted in favor of an initiative restricting immigration from the EU. The government and business circles have warned that this outcome could have serious (negative) economic consequences for Switzerland. In my view, this vote and the uncertainty it generates for the Swiss economy could prove to become a key event undermining market confidence in the strength and stability of CHF and triggering a shift in favor of EUR. Thoughts?
Agree completely. The VP's comments last week, no ECB rate cut and today's decision all point to CHF weakness.
  • #11,484
  • Feb 10, 2014 2:45pm Feb 10, 2014 2:45pm
Hmm, doesn't seem to be happening. This is really weird - whatever happens, it seems to be CHF-positive. No matter how EUR, USD and JPY develop, no matter whether the Swiss open or close their borders, no matter whether the Fed tapers or not, not matter whether the ECB cuts rates or not, the CHF remains as strong as ever. Really hard not to give up on my longs sometimes. And obviously, as soon as you give up, the EUR/CHF will skyrocket big time to 1.40 or something like that. I just don't know what exactly is the deal here. What is the missing ingredient? Is the SNB selling into a current (hidden) rally in order to calm things down after yesterday's black Sunday vote in Switzerland? Or does everyone and his mother join that funny US Ambassador in saying "f... the EU", adding "long live the CHF"? Does anyone have a clue what the real meachanics are in this pair?
  • #11,485
  • Feb 10, 2014 3:33pm Feb 10, 2014 3:33pm
I like to sell E/C starting from 24 aggressively.
EC is the perfect pair for range traders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.daily.png Size: 52 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #11,486
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:19am Feb 11, 2014 3:19am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Hmm, doesn't seem to be happening. This is really weird - whatever happens, it seems to be CHF-positive. No matter how EUR, USD and JPY develop, no matter whether the Swiss open or close their borders, no matter whether the Fed tapers or not, not matter whether the ECB cuts rates or not, the CHF remains as strong as ever. Really hard not to give up on my longs sometimes. And obviously, as soon as you give up, the EUR/CHF will skyrocket big time to 1.40 or something like that. I just don't know what exactly is the deal here. What is the missing ingredient?...
Look at longterm USDCHF chart. It is long term inflow to CHF. Reasons: banking, solid political system, stronger data compared to EU, inflow of high skilled employes.
EU is always weaker compared to SWISS. Look at structure of imigrant to Swiss and EU. You are right, in 3 years they must implement new rules.
CHF is safe haven, long term moneybox for wealthy people. Do you want to ininvest? buy house in Swiss and rent it! Bullmarket = CHF stronger, Bearmarket = CHF stronger

Gamblers belive SNB will hold EURCHF to 1,3 - 1,4 but there is so many of you guys! (and market markers have stronger leverage). And to every one who is SNB believer, good luck! On market noting is for free, this put option will clean in 2 years most of your accounts guys. Good luck EURCHF bulls.
  • #11,487
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:40am Feb 11, 2014 3:40am
My cents:

USDCHF is ask because of debt ceiling debate. With a solution on that issue and employment figures coming inline with expectation I'd favour long USDCHF.

As well as EURCHF. Still expecting some severe consequences from EU because of weekends voting, as they have to signal to their members, that there is no "swiss way" for other countries currently in the EU.

Don't forget swiss housing bubble in your expectations as well as unlimited power to buy EURCHF at 1.20. The more they buy at 1.20, the less stable Switzerland seems and the less is 1.20 a reasonable rate. Actually I wait for SNB to buy some more billions of EURO's.

No way, that SNB is going to increase the bottomline.
  • #11,488
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:04am Feb 11, 2014 8:04am
why anyone thinks this pair is going to fly higher is beyond me
  • #11,489
  • Feb 13, 2014 12:50pm Feb 13, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting brinks
why anyone thinks this pair is going to fly higher is beyond me
it s going to 1.35, it lll be a purely technical move.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #11,490
  • Feb 13, 2014 1:16pm Feb 13, 2014 1:16pm
Yes... but first.. 1.212 ... 1.232.... 1225.... 1.198....1.27...1.25....1.27....1.4
  • #11,491
  • Feb 13, 2014 1:28pm Feb 13, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting brinks
why anyone thinks this pair is going to fly higher is beyond me
why it should stay here or go lower? maybe some range and uptrend. Have you saw what happend with usdjpy in recent years? It also had strong bottom.
  • #11,492
  • Feb 13, 2014 1:41pm Feb 13, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting CHFtrader
Yes... but first.. 1.212 ... 1.232.... 1225.... 1.198....1.27...1.25....1.27....1.4
no.
it will be a CHF dump, soon.
some guys are already dumping.
swiss will print some money, they are borrowing money at a guaranteed price ! like never before. And now, of course CHF will fall, lol.
bankers always win.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #11,493
  • Feb 13, 2014 1:54pm Feb 13, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Willow
{quote} no. it will be a CHF dump, soon. some guys are already dumping. swiss will print some money, they are borrowing money at a guaranteed price ! like never before. And now, of course CHF will fall, lol. bankers always win.
sorry. LENDING.. money...
I'll shop after the drop
  • #11,494
  • Feb 16, 2014 7:13am Feb 16, 2014 7:13am
Ok, so what is needed for a substantial upward move in EUR/CHF? If I remember well the strong appreciation of CHF in 2011 was not as much a result of foreign money seeking a safe haven, but of Swiss investors dumping their USD and EUR investments and returning their capital to CHF. By introducing the minimum exchange rate, the SNB essentially decided to buy most of the dumped EUR with freshly created CHF and to invest the purchased EUR in various non-CHF assets. The approx 200bln CHF they spent for this are now primarily in the hands, pockets and balance sheets of Swiss investors. So the principal question for EUR bulls is when Swiss investors' money will start leaving Switzerland again for investments in EUR and USD. I guess this would require either an increased interest rate differential in favour of EUR and USD, or expectations of significantly weaker economic data for Switzerland and significantly stronger economic data for the EZ and the US. All of this will come surely but (unfortunately) slowly. The only chance I see for a rapid fall of CHF is a harsher than expected reaction from the EU to last weekend's vote in Switzerland, which might lead to a worse than expected economic outlook and perhaps even some kind of exaggerated panic reaction by investors. A strong factor would be a temporary loss of the AAA-rating of Swiss investments, as this may force institutional investors to temporarily withdraw their money from CHF-assets. Any other thoughts and analyses?
  • #11,495
  • Edited 10:15am Feb 16, 2014 9:23am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting Bluedolphin
.....................Any other thoughts and analyses?
Wow, I'm speechless and normally would not speak after that.... but since you asked -


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 31 KB


but its funny how looking at a different time frame shows different things. Who knows?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 31 KB
  • #11,496
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:19am Feb 16, 2014 10:19am
Quoting c3p0
{quote} Wow, I'm speechless and normally would not speak after that.... but since you asked - but its funny how looking at a different time frame shows different things. Who knows?
Hi, c3p0. Thanks for your feedback. Unfortunately charts are not my strong point - can you explain?
  • #11,497
  • Edited 10:46am Feb 16, 2014 10:33am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting Bluedolphin
{quote} Hi, c3p0. Thanks for your feedback. Unfortunately charts are not my strong point - can you explain?
Using Elliott Waves (wave theory) on the D1 timeframe it appears to me price will fall to complete the 5th wave of a 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot Wave. (first pic, but i used letters A-B-C-D-E)

However when i looked at a smaller timeframe, it appears the 5th wave ended on Friday, and that now ECH is a in a 1-2-3 correction, which may indicate a consolidation phase.

I always heard seeing Elliot waves is a subjective art, and i don't know what the big players will do, so I tend to wait for price action. I just think its important to try to see it, then I can learn where I went wrong. There are many waves intersecting. I think the next move may depend on what the big players are up to.
  • #11,498
  • Edited 2:58pm Feb 16, 2014 11:13am | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting c3p0
{quote} Using Elliott Waves (wave theory) .....
Thanks for your explanations c3p0. Personally, I don't pay much attention to waves and charts, perhaps because I don't know any better, but also because I have never been able to draw anything halfway reliable from them. It's like statistics: Depending on how you present them, the same numbers can look great or disastrous and indicate one thing or its precise opposite - a "subjective art", as you say. After all, what really moves prices are external events, most of which we cannot precisely predict in terms of scope and time, but very few of which ever come completely by surprise. Even the introduction of the peg was discussed publicly for weeks as a possible response of the SNB before it was actually imposed. So if you don't feel comfortable gambling as a daytrader, looking at the really big picture and fundamental bottom lines tends to give good guidance for lucrative long term investments.

My macro view is this: Unless we get a third world war or a breakdown of the EZ or some other mega black swan event (which would bust much more in our lives than just our FX-accounts), the SNB will be able and willing to defend 1.20 with no major slippages until this whole crisis is over and the fundamentals in the EZ and US have stabilized on a much better level. In view of the enormous losses the SNB would incur by giving up or lowering the peg, it will be politically expected to defend 1.20 until it has re-absorbed most of the 200bln CHF it has thrown on the market to defend the peg. Once Swiss currency reserves are back down to 200bln (from 400+ bln) it would be wise to stop relying on the peg. Before that, the peg will only be removed if the EUR has appreciated above 1.30 and stayed there without any significant difficulties for at least 6 months and, even more importantly, once interest rates are increased by the SNB (which it will do only AFTER the ECB has done the same without any major economic backlash - thus giving us an intermediate period of increased interest rate differentials, which should again weaken the CHF). In any case, in the pig picture (and save for armageddon), I do not see any way around EUR/CHF at least temporarily rising above 1.30 at some point in the future. If that's true, you can now make your calculations and put aside whatever you have to spare for a long term investment without having to look at charts, waves and daily news.
  • #11,499
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:26pm Feb 16, 2014 12:26pm
You are right, but I see small problem. It is a swarn of small traders, and all of them understand (PEG) and belive SNB. Eurchf 1.4 in 2-3 years is possible target, but first we must go for just one second under 1.2... maybe to 1.19, 1.18 depends, where are stops and margin closes. I see in 10 years usdchf 0.7 and eurchf 1. Look at long term capital flow from usd and eur.
  • #11,500
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:34pm Feb 16, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Bluedolphin
{quote} Thanks for your explanations c3p0. Personally, I don't pay much attention to waves and charts, perhaps because I don't know any better, but also because I have never been able to draw anything halfway reliable from them. It's like statistics: Depending on how you present them, the same numbers can look great or disastrous and indicate one thing or its precise opposite - a "subjective art", as you say. After all, what really moves prices are external events, most of which we cannot precisely predict in terms of scope and time, but very few...
My view is along the same lines. Jean-Pierre Danthine made it clear that the cap will remain in place until " there was less upward pressure on the currency". As such, I think a move towards 1.30 would (at the minimum) be the threshold (not a trigger) required to give the SNB confidence to consider scrapping the cap. Recent macro events continue to point towards CHF weakness and I suspect that once the EU ups the pressure on Switzerland as they begin to implement the new immigration controls, we'll see the nation's credibility and economic standing take a beating.
0 traders viewing now