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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,281
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:43am Feb 13, 2014 9:43am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Yeah mate this is a really good level it on here, Assuming you mean to the long side? {image}
Yeah, long. Huge potential for this. Got in majority of position at 1.9818 a couple days ago. Have added some more here and there.
  • #363,282
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:43am Feb 13, 2014 9:43am
There are still people wanting to short this pair begs belief..... 1.6850 is next target!!! Support is now 1.6620
Cheers!!
  • #363,283
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:46am Feb 13, 2014 9:46am
Sure miss the good old days when cable thread had real substance. Its sure now gone to the Dogs!
  • #363,284
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:50am Feb 13, 2014 9:50am
Quoting PipsMaster23
There are still people wanting to short this pair begs belief..... 1.6850 is next target!!! Support is now 1.6620
Short - Target 16348. I think I will be fine
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP Short.jpg Size: 148 KB
  • #363,285
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:00am Feb 13, 2014 10:00am
you are right imo ,also cable will fall


Quoting Davit
6630 is proving real nut to crack but it will gave away. for Bears we need price to go under NY close 6598 that would establish bias on Bear side. Clean simple indicator to set on your chart for day close to me is NY adjustable for zones. simple visual cue. {file} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #363,286
  • Edited 10:17am Feb 13, 2014 10:00am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Im still wondering why anyone would short this pair and not be long??? 4H and Daily show clear uptrend, technical are ALL bullish and to further confirm this so are the fundamentals, with BoE being the most hawkish about their rate increase within the whole G10. 1.6625/1.6650 expect some resistance but eventually it will break, 1.68 looming and if we do get above that level WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH!
Thanks for the sound effect.I am sure we can all use your insights.
Since I am at it let me elaborate more.
Carney on numerous occasions mentioned that RI is not fixed on unemployment numbers only but overall health of the economy.Right now UK "recovery" is on fragile grounds and IR is not even considered for minimum 1year.WE are far from that point now.We can have multiple 1.60-167 until then..
I am not even bringing up Tapering and IR raise on our side.
I suggest you stay with sound effects
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,287
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:03am Feb 13, 2014 10:03am
range bound top of range ,failure to take ,come on guys
trend no more that previous 2 weeks down


Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for the sound effect.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #363,288
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:08am Feb 13, 2014 10:08am
Quoting Bones
you are right imo ,also cable will fall {quote}
Corrective waves will follow.Nothing goes straight up.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,289
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:23am Feb 13, 2014 10:23am
I think eventual break will be down out of this zone ,that we will see bears take control for end of week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD d1 target Spot.png Size: 28 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #363,290
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:51am Feb 13, 2014 10:51am
http://macrocreditfx.blogspot.co.uk/...nst-highs.html

Im shorting the GBP, strucuted with short vol to cover expense of SL

no risk on the spot trade!
  • #363,291
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:59am Feb 13, 2014 10:59am
Hello GBP/US

Got some longs in profit

I opened them to 1.67 1.675 an to 1.68

thinking the last few times it retraced around here

but EUR/US is creeping up also.

We know it can drop a big turd at any moment
  • #363,292
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:00am Feb 13, 2014 11:00am
Quoting JeremyWS
http://macrocreditfx.blogspot.co.uk/...nst-highs.html Im shorting the GBP, strucuted with short vol to cover expense of SL no risk on the spot trade!
Our minds think a like my friend
My initial target is 65 but my TP is set at 6250
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #363,293
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:07am Feb 13, 2014 11:07am
h4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD h4 Spot.png Size: 24 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #363,294
  • Edited 11:32am Feb 13, 2014 11:18am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting JeremyWS
http://macrocreditfx.blogspot.co.uk/...nst-highs.html Im shorting the GBP, strucuted with short vol to cover expense of SL no risk on the spot trade!
interesting idea, spot is reasonable (having failed to breach 1.67 today it may now take next week's batch of CPI and claimant count data to get more clarity)
vol for me however is always just a ripoff dealing with the banks, we all know the vol desks make a killing and the spot desks struggle
there isn't that much time left. monday is a US bank holiday. so shorters have two more days, and unless they're planning on gambling on the data to be bad I wouldn't look for a big pullback before the big event risk.
there really isn't going to be that much relief. I see maybe 1.655x at most (and maybe not even that) before this turns into a punt-fest with CPI, claimant count, and retail sales
obviously, implied vols for the same expiry collapse after next week
shorters should be kicking themselves for getting themselves trapped before next week's critical data (which is exactly why the big boys bought trying to go for the multi-year range break catalyzed possibly by another round of good data). how everyone was so confident fading strength yesterday so close to these data points is beyond me. just because 1.67 might not be at risk until next tuesday to start doesn't mean that you're going to be able to get any of your bad shorts out profitably.
good luck.
  • #363,295
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:21am Feb 13, 2014 11:21am
Quoting capitulation
{quote} Short - Target 16348. I think I will be fine {image}
1.6645 would be considered a minor zone and yes there are shorting opportunities but thats with a high risk as theres a little room for upside movement. perhaps waiting a bit for price to reach 1.6700 is a better high probability trade and getting a good reversal signal. Either bearish engulfing , kangarro tail or pin bar , or harami or the belt or whatever you use for reversals. if you are trading with the double top reversal (Moolah is the nickname I believe) with all the characteristics then its not high probability right now since price has seem to touch there in the elipse. Anyway good luck in your trades.
BTW nice returns Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #363,296
  • Edited 12:01pm Feb 13, 2014 11:39am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} interesting idea, spot is reasonable (having failed to breach 1.67 today it may now take next week's batch of CPI and claimant count data to get more clarity) vol for me however is always just a ripoff dealing with the banks, we all know the vol desks make a killing and the spot desks struggle there isn't that much time left. monday is a US bank holiday. so shorters have two more days, and unless they're planning on gambling on the data to be bad I wouldn't look for a big pullback before the big event risk. there really isn't going to be...
Also, we have hangman's at 1.6625, most likely downside could be capped there for a while (maybe even all of tomorrow), while people keep "hoping"
By Monday NYC afternoon shorters will have started panicking as they have no time left and if people actually cover it may be possible to see a dip, but then the data comes out which we all know what the risk/reward is on that
All it takes is for some unscrupulous people to submit a few lowball estimates on the forecasts and away we go
the reality is this:
GC broke out of multi-year ranges last year
so will GU, at some point
finally, the sextuple top at 1.8550 in GC, do people think that's going to hold forever?
anyway, whether any of this transpires next week is data-dependent, but the reality is, the probabilities are not on the shorters' sides although it is always possible to get relief if you gamble on the data. (or blow your account)
  • #363,297
  • Edited 1:45pm Feb 13, 2014 11:58am | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for the sound effect.I am sure we can all use your insights. Since I am at it let me elaborate more. Carney on numerous occasions mentioned that RI is not fixed on unemployment numbers only but overall health of the economy.Right now UK "recovery" is on fragile grounds and IR is not even considered for minimum 1year.WE are far from that point now.We can have multiple 1.60-167 until then.. I am not even bringing up Tapering and IR raise on our side. I suggest you stay with sound effects
That's because there is no IR raise on your side.
Everything you just said about the BOE, has been said by the Fed re. interest rates and the fragile nature of the recovery.
If you are going to be sarcastic, you might want to produce a better response.

having said that, I might go for a short close of trading day today.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,298
  • Feb 13, 2014 12:16pm Feb 13, 2014 12:16pm
Hello thread readers

Weekly R3 pivot is at today's hi and with price already travelled 139% of the average weekly range of pips in this moment is there any room for more progress to the north tomorrow - Friday ? Will see how Daily candle closes, and above the present daily hi zone as possible resistance (?) there is a former weekly/ monthly resistance zone that extends to 6744. 6830 is Monthly R2 pivot.

Many of the bears on this thread have been telling us it will go down all the way up lol - but at some point they will be right ?

Best Wishes.
it's all gone a bit........
  • #363,299
  • Feb 13, 2014 12:18pm Feb 13, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} That's because there is no IR raise on your side. having said that, I might go for a short close of trading day today.
I might wait until at least 7PM New York time so a low liquidity stop hunt during the Wellington open can be ruled out. We've got both GU and GJ pushing against the highs again. A pre-data break is not my core view but if it does break towards 1.67 it could be a fadable fake in front of the data.
  • #363,300
  • Feb 13, 2014 12:25pm Feb 13, 2014 12:25pm
Looking at the weekly candle it either closes around 1.65 to give the bears another long wick or we're getting a full body and pressing onwards.

A lot of "signals" say its overbought and it "should" come down. But when 78% of retail is short and this kind of momentum I find it hard to believe. Looking at a long from 1.66 if we ever get back there.
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