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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,101
  • Edited 2:27pm Feb 12, 2014 2:15pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I call hope confirmation. Above 170.25 I am done with shorts, I might not even get there depending on GBPUSD reaction at 1660
you're hoping S&P (ESH4) breaks 1812.50 and continues to put pressure on UJ but it's hangman there and trapped shorts below
anyway, i'll end with this thought, tops and bottoms form on exhaustion points usually it comes back rapidly after trading there and is at such an extreme price that 95% of losing traders are already in the wrong position because they were impatient and even though they now know it's going to come back they don't have any more margin to trade there
currently we are not at an exhaustion point
bye guys, good luck
  • #363,102
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:37pm Feb 12, 2014 2:37pm
You guys DO realize you are allowed to buy, right? Not that I would at this point, but every trade in here seems to be short, short, short, when price keeps going up, up, up..

I understand you think it is going to go down at some point, but after getting stopped out a few times, you should let it go. Look at other pairs. You are allowed to trade them all.

Just my advice, not trying to offend anyone here. But damn, you guys got me shaking my head in amazement at the persistence to sell into strength. Let it show you some weakness first, THEN give it a try.
  • #363,103
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:40pm Feb 12, 2014 2:40pm
Stopped out.

Time to start looking for another entry.
  • #363,104
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:42pm Feb 12, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting Zappa
You guys DO realize you are allowed to buy, right? Not that I would at this point, but every trade in here seems to be short, short, short, when price keeps going up, up, up.. I understand you think it is going to go down at some point, but after getting stopped out a few times, you should let it go. Look at other pairs. You are allowed to trade them all. Just my advice, not trying to offend anyone here. But damn, you guys got me shaking my head in amazement at the persistence to sell into strength. Let it show you some weakness first, THEN give...
LOL! eager beavers!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,105
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:01pm Feb 12, 2014 3:01pm
"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms."

............ we all know who said that right?
  • #363,106
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:04pm Feb 12, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Quidsey
"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." ............ we all know who said that right?
tudor of course
here's the problem:
-most retail traders are out of margin when the market turns
-even if someone catches the absolute dead high or low, it's usually very sloppy and choppy on the way back much more so than on the way forward especially in early times (from all the people trying to catch a bargain and bailing out of their losses half way) and most people don't have an appropriately high reward/risk to take advantage
-the current market pattern has no suggestion of wanting to turn. S&P just bounced off the hangman I mentioned before with the trapped shorts below. UJ also trapped below. it would be "impatient" at the very minimum to fade risk here, "ill-advised" at worst
  • #363,107
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:09pm Feb 12, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} you're hoping S&P (ESH4) breaks 1812.50 and continues to put pressure on UJ but it's hangman there and trapped shorts below anyway, i'll end with this thought, tops and bottoms form on exhaustion points usually it comes back rapidly after trading there and is at such an extreme price that 95% of losing traders are already in the wrong position because they were impatient and even though they now know it's going to come back they don't have any more margin to trade there currently we are not at an exhaustion point bye guys, good luck
I don't think I will have the required patience to keep this short alive. Considering also that charts are completely against me and Carney cannot do any further damage..... however exchange rates are mainly driven by interest rates and in this case they will stay low for longer than anticipated so question is who may want to buy gbp now? possibly small speculators, hedgers etc. We saw larger volumes on the drop today so bears are there waiting for the right opportunity which could be at any time. I will follow.
  • #363,108
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:14pm Feb 12, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I don't think I will have the required patience to keep this short alive. Considering also that charts are completely against me and Carney cannot do any further damage..... however exchange rates are mainly driven by interest rates and in this case they will stay low for longer than anticipated so question is who may want to buy gbp now? possibly small speculators, hedgers etc. We saw larger volumes on the drop today so bears are there waiting for the right opportunity which could be at any time. I will follow.
S&P is suggesting another wave higher here having failed to take out 1812.50 3-4 times, as of the time of writing it's already bounced off 5 points since my last post
if it does, and it's quite unlikely in the short term, then reevaluate
for me there is no turning point here
in response to what you said, sure, just bear again after these obvious stops taken out and bad positions run against and there is a complete capitulation. i already said, if we trade to around 171 today in a fast stoppish way i'm selling GJ
people are wrong everywhere not just in this particular market, and that's what makes this a particularly bad spot to be short risk
  • #363,109
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:15pm Feb 12, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting poleposition
. {image}
price follows the expected path
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  • #363,110
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:15pm Feb 12, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} tudor of course here's the problem: -most retail traders are out of margin when the market turns -even if someone catches the absolute dead high or low, it's usually very sloppy and choppy on the way back much more so than on the way forward especially in early times (from all the people trying to catch a bargain and bailing out of their losses half way) and most people don't have an appropriately high reward/risk to take advantage -the current market pattern has no suggestion of wanting to turn. S&P just bounced off the hangman I mentioned...
Maybe one of the reasons why only a small % make it in this business!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #363,111
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:13pm Feb 12, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting Quidsey
"I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." ............ we all know who said that right?
As someone else said, Tudor. I have used this quote before to defend my reasoning for picking tops and bottoms. Didn't help me make any money though.

Here's the thing, I am not saying you shouldn't try to pick highs/lows. I'm saying you wait to see a market either fizzle out or enter into an area where an opposing force is observed. Once you see either one of these, you can take a bite. But to enter into strength, when there has not been any real reaction beforehand, is not worth risking your hard earned money.

And when you get stopped out 2 or 3 times in a row while attempting to do the same thing on the same pair, do yourself a favor and stop trying. Give it a rest. I am speaking from the experience of having made all these mistakes already. Believe it or not I am trying to help. I think I've made every possible mistake there is to make in trading---several hundred times. I can guarantee you that at one point I was THE WORLD'S WORST TRADER EVER!! But somehow I made it out alive and I'm doing pretty good these days.

I guess you guys will just have to learn on your own, but part of me sees myself in you struggling and I want to help. I'm probably wasting my time, however.
  • #363,112
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:35pm Feb 12, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting Bones
this is very high risk just saying {quote}
hi bones it worked out well i have pulled the sl to keep profit i post the chart for your thoughts regards E
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  • #363,113
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:37pm Feb 12, 2014 4:37pm
This thing is unstoppable today.

Bears getting slaughtered as this goes straight up.
  • #363,114
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:39pm Feb 12, 2014 4:39pm
Wow ... I am starting to worry more about my shorts than my longs now haha... but I think tomorrow it will be due to some kind of retracement ... it just went straight up almost without any correction.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #363,115
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:40pm Feb 12, 2014 4:40pm
going up on words, stuffed full of pips to the brim
this market is manipulated to make money for the banks
  • #363,116
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:40pm Feb 12, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Well said 1.66 minimum!
We hit and now 1.67/1.68
Cheers!!
  • #363,117
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:41pm Feb 12, 2014 4:41pm
shocking result guys after everything we just talked about. late afternoon, low liquidity is prime time for stop running.
cries of manipulated markets and anger from the retail community as usual
UJ could potentially follow.
  • #363,118
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:43pm Feb 12, 2014 4:43pm
Trend traders' El Dorado
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #363,119
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:44pm Feb 12, 2014 4:44pm
I keep coming here looking for the news that is driving this and am seeing Nada.
  • #363,120
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:46pm Feb 12, 2014 4:46pm
Im still wondering why anyone would short this pair and not be long??? 4H and Daily show clear uptrend, technical are ALL bullish and to further confirm this so are the fundamentals, with BoE being the most hawkish about their rate increase within the whole G10.

1.6625/1.6650 expect some resistance but eventually it will break, 1.68 looming and if we do get above that level WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH!
Cheers!!
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