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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #362,741
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:21pm Feb 10, 2014 1:21pm
Gibbons
  • #362,742
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:25pm Feb 10, 2014 1:25pm
doubt it

Quoting DailyChart
Ladies and gentlemen, Mark this Post today and see how he respond later when EU hit 1.40 {quote}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #362,743
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:28pm Feb 10, 2014 1:28pm
Well let's see what happened with the last 2 half figures
13000 - Bernanke dovish comments in July sends EUR squeezing from 1.2750 to 1.32 (with more than half of it happening after 445ET)
13500 - FOMC "surprises" market by not tapering on course in September
14000 - ???
Here's a mathematical fact
It will not be true that EU will be above 1.40, UJ will be above 100, and EJ will be below 140
  • #362,744
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:29pm Feb 10, 2014 1:29pm
[quote=DailyChart;7272164]
Quoting Suffo
{quote} Yay - I am so scared - very sleepy now,keep post and will reply you guys tomorrow see ya ps : sleep well dirty mouth highly sensitive pro trader ( ??? ) - get more energy and I am will be back for you tomorrow ya
in next 24 hours is time to post your next trade,with SL
...because I hate abstract BS
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #362,745
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:32pm Feb 10, 2014 1:32pm
consolidation Jimmy ,see how it closes


Quoting JimmyC
Howzit GU! PA today reflected a Mondays trading. Equity markets we're relatively flat and the majority of serious money movers appear to be waiting for Mrs Yellen to make her remarks to congress before they reposition themselves. Some Macro themes that appear to have faded would include the route in EM currencies and the slow in economic growth noted in China. These issues now appear to have faded till Mrs Y testifies. There are no real event risks prior to the US open tomorrow as such I don't believe we'll see much more action tomorrow. Technically...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #362,746
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:33pm Feb 10, 2014 1:33pm
looks like i could of been right 6424 could be capped some big wicks on the 4 hour the candle we are i now should turn red /
  • #362,747
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:36pm Feb 10, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
Well let's see what happened with the last 2 half figures 13000 - Bernanke dovish comments in July sends EUR squeezing from 1.2750 to 1.32 (with more than half of it happening after 445ET) 13500 - FOMC "surprises" market by not tapering on course in September 14000 - ??? Here's a mathematical fact It will not be true that EU will be above 1.40, UJ will be above 100, and EJ will be below 140
That's why I said the clowns.These guys don't think fundamentally or logically.Its one thing to say X Y Z and because of it we will get 1.40
and Another to say "1.40 coming up he he he"
That's what you get from brainless trolls.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #362,748
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:39pm Feb 10, 2014 1:39pm
Why it bounced here right to the dot
Attached Image
  • #362,749
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:40pm Feb 10, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's why I said the clowns.These guys don't think fundamentally or logically.Its one thing to say X Y Z and because of it we will get 1.40 and Another to say "1.40 coming up he he he" That's what you get from brainless trolls.
I agree, I think it's way too early to talk about 1.40 with especially with lingering uncertainty about the direction in equities, UJ, EURXXX, GBPXXX.
If lower risk levels are indeed in play, and they still are unless invalidated, 1.40 could take months and months and only if risk retests successfully.
EA at 1.58 and EJ at 145 couldn't take EU to 1.40 and now we are making a pass at lower risk so who is going to buy the EU this month or the next?
But that said, for now, there are still a lot of trapped shorts.
  • #362,750
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:41pm Feb 10, 2014 1:41pm
daily prob will be a doji ,really risky but possible signal (gap down ?)
after confirm of bottom of range ideal world we go somewhere near top ,
,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD d1 Spot.png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #362,751
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:42pm Feb 10, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting Bones
consolidation Jimmy ,see how it closes {quote}
Just rattling around in here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 15.png Size: 30 KB
  • #362,752
  • Edited 2:20pm Feb 10, 2014 2:03pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting JimmyC
Howzit GU! PA today reflected a Mondays trading. Equity markets we're relatively flat and the majority of serious money movers appear to be waiting for Mrs Yellen to make her remarks to congress before they reposition themselves. Some Macro themes that appear to have faded would include the route in EM currencies and the slow in economic growth noted in China. These issues now appear to have faded till Mrs Y testifies. There are no real event risks prior to the US open tomorrow as such I don't believe we'll see much more action tomorrow. Technically...
Hi Jimmy
Current PA I see it as reaction of recent drop.Its still at 38 fib, 6450 is at 50% and 65 61.8
What you think is a reversal I see it as typical harmonic pattern.

Lets look at this logically.
What was the prime reason Price reached 1.6660?
Carney's forward guidance supported by slight drop in unemployment and consumer confidence.
Now this impetus has been consumed by the market.
What is the new driving force to go 1.66 and above? Nothing really.So its easier to continue go south then north.Least path of resistance.
regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #362,753
  • Feb 10, 2014 2:27pm Feb 10, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Jimmy Current PA I see it as reaction of recent drop.Its still at 38 fib, 6450 is at 50% and 65 61.8 What you think is a reversal I see it as typical harmonic pattern. Lets look at this logically. What was the prime reason Price reached 1.6660? Carney's forward guidance supported by slight drop in unemployment and consumer confidence. Now this impetus has been consumed by the market. What is the new driving force to go 1.66 and above? Nothing really.So its easier to continue go south then north.Least path of resistance. regards {image}...
I agree that the AB=CD would be logical next trade... The fly in the ointment (though small) is the DXY

on-going weakness or a break down in PA below the rising channel may artificially prop us Cable, Mrs Y additionally is currently dovish, the taper doesn't suggest rising US rates yet, I see the $DX as weakening.

I'm biased to the R:R and am suspicious of the fundamental drivers from the US

Regards,

$DX 4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US Dollar Basket (MAR-14) 4H.png Size: 36 KB
  • #362,754
  • Feb 10, 2014 2:34pm Feb 10, 2014 2:34pm
You guys go ahead and see how well your fundamental analysis holds up, I'll stick to reading what the market is actually doing. 1.6600 seems highly likely.

Most important thing, however, is to be flexible and ready to change view on a moments notice if market does not do what you think it should be doing. That is why posting on this site can actually hurt a trader's performance, because they make their views public and then feel the need to marry the trade.
  • #362,755
  • Feb 10, 2014 3:58pm Feb 10, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting Zappa
You guys go ahead and see how well your fundamental analysis holds up, I'll stick to reading what the market is actually doing. 1.6600 seems highly likely. Most important thing, however, is to be flexible and ready to change view on a moments notice if market does not do what you think it should be doing. That is why posting on this site can actually hurt a trader's performance, because they make their views public and then feel the need to marry the trade.
Be careful not to confuse conviction with bravado. I seriously doubt anybody would hold on to a trade simply because of making their forecast publically available.
  • #362,756
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:16pm Feb 10, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} Be careful not to confuse conviction with bravado. I seriously doubt anybody would hold on to a trade simply because of making their forecast publically available.
Nice returns Keep going

I am sick as a dog today.Nose running none stop and everything hurts.Hoping to feel better tomorrow when my girl Yellen starts talking
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #362,757
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:38pm Feb 10, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} Be careful not to confuse conviction with bravado. I seriously doubt anybody would hold on to a trade simply because of making their forecast publically available.

What happens is that the pressure to be proven right causes us to ignore emerging signs that we may be wrong. I speak from experience and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

The markets do not move in straight lines for very long. When a trader makes a bet that a market will travel a distance that might take several weeks, there will be signs along the way that can either confirm the trader's forecasted target, or signs that should force the trader to exit the trade early. When we become blind to these signs due to not only a hope for profit, but also to the embarrassment and ridicule if we re wrong, it is detrimental to our performance.
  • #362,758
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:20pm Feb 10, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} What happens is that the pressure to be proven right causes us to ignore emerging signs that we may be wrong. I speak from experience and I'm sure I'm not the only one. The markets do not move in straight lines for very long. When a trader makes a bet that a market will travel a distance that might take several weeks, there will be signs along the way that can either confirm the trader's forecasted target, or signs that should force the trader to exit the trade early. When we become blind to these signs due to not only a hope for profit,...
I just have a different point of view. I can't imagine any emotionally mature person feeling embarrassment or ridicule when they are wrong.

I think most traders and especially profitable traders only care about what their bank account thinks and have little regard to anything else.
  • #362,759
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:27pm Feb 10, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} I can't imagine any emotionally mature person feeling embarrassment or ridicule when they are wrong.
You really can't imagine that?

Come on, it can get even the best of us.
  • #362,760
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:28pm Feb 10, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} I think most traders and especially profitable traders only care about what their bank account thinks and have little regard to anything else.
And even this can cause us to be blinded, not only by public forecasts.

I'm not talking about a trader's discipline to take a loss, I'm talking about a trader's flexibility in being able to take a win or a loss early when signs appear. Signs don't exactly label themselves as "SIGNS HERE!!" so only an open-minded trader who's looking to be wrong will see all of them.
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