Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Couple of points to bear in mind before taking any positions:

Borrowing costs:
Sterling 0.52125% +0.0025
Dollar 0.23660% -0.0010
Euros 0.26286% -0.00714

Swaps up @ 81.50 above support @ 79.50
10s spread up +0.07%

- Calls for cuts to the ECB refinancing rate growing
- Federal Reserve says it's now watching EM developments
- Sterling Futures now pricing in IR hike this year


Have a nice weekend all .

I highly doubt IR will go up this year.Carney made known on several occasions that 7% unemployment is threshold but not the trigger.That figure could be lowered to 6.5%
There is real concern that raising IR on soft economy could derail real recovery.Most jobs are created not in good manufacturing sector but mostly low paying crap jobs that hardly add buying power.
We are 2yrs away from IR hike and this is based what I been reading on this issue.

There is more to this.Euro zone troubles are far from over furthermore unemployment levels are going up hence lower Euro and Higher Sterling makes no sense when your biggest trading partner is Euro zone. Factor in correlation and you get a parity.

REgards

Where are you looking at Sterling futures?

I look at EURGBP for my timing. If EG takes out the low then yes cable can go higher.

BUT when EG finds a low I think its possible we're gonna see cable do what Euro is doing right now.

Cable has been leading Euro, so when Euro starts leading (e.g. EURGBP bottom), then we can see cable fall faster.


That is one approach if you like the bearish side of cable.

Cable closed in Friday below MA and below support which may become resistance for now. It is at the bottom of channel in H4 but I can see there is much room downside before another support if it break that channel .

There are multiple moving averages hence below MA is meaningless.
Just food for thought.
Markets are moved by big market makers hence price can move upwards or downwards irregardless of any MA S/R or TA
We tend to put too much faith in those but reality is when "they" decide to move price its usually not about MA,S/R TL's but something more fundamental and news driven.
Basic market for February for Cable could be "safe heaven" or " liability" This will become more clear next week by Weds after manufacturing and construction PMI

Regards

Thanks Davit for sharing your fundamental view. See I have just posted a short term analysis. Till now it is under support in lower tf and still not any support confirmed. But you know it is in uptrend in longer tf, so there is buying opportunity until it breaks a major support 6305 .

i hope so.....

Reason I place many smaller orders is to overcome market randomness by taking greater chunk of distance.
People often say price came and stopped at 5MA 10MA 15MA 20MA or whatever.Price could of stopped on any spot and by coincidence match with particular MA hence give an illusion price is being effected by it.I highly doubt that.To coordinate 4 trillion dollar market to stop on a dime exactly on 20MA is mighty task.
What I am trying to convey is we have to shed our faulty understanding of market from MA,Indicator perspective and see the market what it is and who is moving it.
Regards

You may be right. Btw I don.t trade on MA only. MA is l filter. I like to make high probability trade. In a short bias in h4 it is high probable to go lower if price below support. Also again it will become low probability if anyone sell at the bottom of channel until breakdown happen. So it is a mixture of different tf, tl, support resistance, currency strength indicator and ma crosses. I don't know whether it is faulty understanding but this strategy working for me well till now.

I was just sharing my thoughts in general and was not addressing you in specific or criticizing you.Everyone should do what works for them.
green pips friend

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<p><b><font size="3"><b>Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month</b></font></b></p>
<p></p>
<p>Published: Wednesday, <span style="color:Red">18 Dec 2013 | 4:07 PM ET</span> </b></b></p>
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<p>By: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/19075466" target="_blank">JeeYeon Park</a> | CNBC.com Writer</p>
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<p><b><i>Link :</i> </b><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101279385" target="_blank">CNBC</a></p>
<p> </p>
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<p><b><font size="3"><b>Fed will cut bond purchases by $10B in January</b></font></b></p>
<p></p>
<p>Paul Davidson, USA TODAY <span style="color:Red"><b>6:58 p.m. EST</b></span> <span style="color:Red"><b>December 19, 2013</b></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b><i>Link :</i></b> <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/18/fed-meeting-december/4078769/" target="_blank">USA TODAY</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><b><font size="3"><b>Fed taper will remain slow and steady: CNBC survey</b></font></b></p>
<p></p>
<p>Published: Tuesday, <span style="colorarkRed"><b>28 Jan 2014 | 6:30 AM ET</b></span></p>
<p>By: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15920968" target="_blank">Alex Crippen</a> | Senior Coordinating Producer</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b><i>Link : </i></b><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101367146" target="_blank">CNBC</a></p>
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<p><img src="http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Wink" smilieid="85" class="inlineimg" /> <img src="http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/smilies/yim/daydreaming_.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Daydreaming" smilieid="46" class="inlineimg" /></p>
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<p><b><font size="3"><b>UPDATE 1-Fed's Yellen to testify before Congress Feb. 11 and 13</b></font></b></p>
<p></p>
<p><b><span style="color:Black">Published:</span><span style="color:Blue"><b> Friday, 31 Jan 2014 | 12:20 PM </b></span></b></p>
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<p><b><i>Link : </i></b><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101380984" target="_blank">CNBC</a></p>
<p> </p>

Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month
Published: Wednesday, 18 Dec 2013 | 4:07 PM ET
By: JeeYeon Park | CNBC.com Writer

Link : CNBC



Fed will cut bond purchases by $10B in January
Paul Davidson, USA TODAY 6:58 p.m. EST December 19, 2013

Link : USA TODAY



Fed taper will remain slow and steady: CNBC survey
Published: Tuesday, 28 Jan 2014 | 6:30 AM ET
By: Alex Crippen | Senior Coordinating Producer

Link : CNBC

UPDATE 1-Fed's Yellen to testify before Congress Feb. 11 and 13
Published: Friday, 31 Jan 2014 | 12:20 PM


Link : CNBC

Looking forward
Hope both GU and EU shoot up 100pips then hummer both down aggressively.That's my plan sell the rallies and fk the uptrends

Watching G/CHF (one of my favorite pairs)

Price is dead center on my system and forming typical 123 pattern or AB=CD
If 4880 breaks I anticipate reaching 46 level to my buy zone.(don't short without checking how GU behaves.If GU goes up scratch shorting this pair)
Watching for short
last 20days 114 ADR nice movements

EG_My five charts' worth_02.02.14

Tough one to call between the Dollar and Sterling... both having support of an ascending Guppy profile, and also support zones that are coupled with fib points.

started placing limit shorts from 1.65