DislikedEU Comment (of a Different Nature) I think I now perceive what is happening here. The euro (EU, etc.) has been on a rampage of increasing price for a year and a half. Now, you and I both know that retail traders could never buy enough to cause that. Only the super-rich could be responsible. The conclusion is that after all this price pumping, they are heavily invested in it. Two things are important to understand. One: it is those with great money that are the potential bag holders, not us. Two: the ECB has printed and printed and printed, so there...Ignored
- #64,902
- Jan 31, 2014 1:43pm Jan 31, 2014 1:43pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,903
- Jan 31, 2014 2:16pm Jan 31, 2014 2:16pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,904
- Jan 31, 2014 2:54pm Jan 31, 2014 2:54pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
EU Comment:
Another spike up thru 1/2SR to clear out liquidity for short accumulation, and down it went another step. It has to be "eased" down so as to not scare off the herd that might be continually coaxed into buying. It is the super-rich that are in danger of being left holding huge bags of shit up here, after a year and a half of price pumping, not the retailers. The ECB, another institution of the super-rich, has printed and printed and supported the price each time the super-rich engage in a sell-off, that support being for the purpose of keeping prices high until the super-rich are out and others are left hold those bags of shit.
Just think, if everyone ceased to trade euro related pairs, except in the anti-euro direction, those bastards would soon be in a hell of a fix, left only with each other to try and screw!
Anyway, Market Makers know the plans of the super-rich, and as this chart shows they don't miss an opportunity to take full advantage of the next move down.
Another spike up thru 1/2SR to clear out liquidity for short accumulation, and down it went another step. It has to be "eased" down so as to not scare off the herd that might be continually coaxed into buying. It is the super-rich that are in danger of being left holding huge bags of shit up here, after a year and a half of price pumping, not the retailers. The ECB, another institution of the super-rich, has printed and printed and supported the price each time the super-rich engage in a sell-off, that support being for the purpose of keeping prices high until the super-rich are out and others are left hold those bags of shit.
Just think, if everyone ceased to trade euro related pairs, except in the anti-euro direction, those bastards would soon be in a hell of a fix, left only with each other to try and screw!
Anyway, Market Makers know the plans of the super-rich, and as this chart shows they don't miss an opportunity to take full advantage of the next move down.
- #64,905
- Jan 31, 2014 4:01pm Jan 31, 2014 4:01pm
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts
I know the secret...
- #64,906
- Feb 1, 2014 12:24am Feb 1, 2014 12:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts
{quote} Eventhough I bailed out from my long EU position, I'm still in bullish mindset. This weekly chart seems like perfect bull flag and I'm seeing all the high buying activity at low prices. For now, I'm waiting for Classic Sonic R long entry and when I see one, I'm going in with full blast. {image}
- #64,907
- Edited 1:40am Feb 1, 2014 1:25am | Edited 1:40am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts
{quote} See u @ 1.3314x
Will see...
Still have my long bias, but I'm also ready to take the bear side if price breaks out from bottom of this channel.
I know the secret...
Well nothing good ever comes easy. This week's profits got wiped out by the horrible EU long trade. This is to mean I longed and changed my bias without good reason. Anyway this is my H1 chart for the pair. Red circles are what I think is bear signs and green are the moo moo signs. Quite the PVSRA challenge for me to figure out heh. As I go along I'm starting to develope the mentality that there is no such thing as bulls or bears..only "buears" since they can pretty much be both at the same time imho.
I want more brain power!
- #64,909
- Feb 1, 2014 2:35am Feb 1, 2014 2:35am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Well nothing good ever comes easy. This week's profits got wiped out by the horrible EU long trade. This is to mean I longed and changed my bias without good reason. Anyway this is my H1 chart for the pair. Red circles are what I think is bear signs and green are the moo moo signs. Quite the PVSRA challenge for me to figure out heh. As I go along I'm starting to develope the mentality that there is no such thing as bulls or bears..only "buears" since they can pretty much be both at the same time imho. {image}
There is such a thing as bulls or bears. Never doubt it!
During last summer there were some great posts by qFish, Tymedu, and others, some of which actually illustrated the point you are making. However, there is always the predominance of one over the other, and some of these posts and their great illustrations pointed that out.
As an attempt at quickly and simply trying to summarize lets assume we start looking at PA as it begins to move down from a top. The MMs are obviously bears, and on retraces back up they might first close some shorts and take on some longs for the retrace move back up, but their focus will remain reloading shorts at the top of the retraces. At some point during the down trend this changes. The MMs become predominately bulls, and before retraces back up they will close shorts and focus on building longs, some of which they might close at the top of the retrace where they will take on some new shorts, but their focus has shifted to diminishing their short position and building a long position, even as the down trend continues to its end. So, in thinking about this, it makes sense to try and visualize the status of the trend.
Remember, early on in my PVSRA writings I made it an important point of saying that we have to also consider where PA has come from. If it is "new" in a trend, fine, but if it might becoming "old" in a trend we have to consider that in a different way.
So, it makes sense to try and visualize what the status of the trend might me, because if we are in a "new" down trend it makes sense to see more notable volumes at highs (retraces) and less notable volumes at lows. But, once a down trend gets "old" we might be seeing more notable volumes at lows and less notable volumes at highs, and be wondering what in hell is going on that in a down trend there is much notable volume at lows!
We cannot know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse. We can know what the MMs are doing, though. And, if we are successful in seeing what they are doing and where PA is overall in the "trend of things" we can get a rather good handle on the market.
For you and for other Sonicers reading this, I wholeheartedly recommend paying attention to loeil's posts, because he seems to have gotten the hang of this.
-tah
- #64,910
- Feb 1, 2014 3:13am Feb 1, 2014 3:13am
Well nothing good ever comes easy. This week's profits got wiped out by the horrible EU long trade. This is to mean I longed and changed my bias without good reason. Anyway this is my H1 chart for the pair. Red circles are what I think is bear signs and green are the moo moo signs. Quite the PVSRA challenge for me to figure out heh. As I go along I'm starting to develope the mentality that there is no such thing as bulls or bears..only "buears" since they can pretty much be both at the same time imho. {image}
Newbie trader
- #64,911
- Edited 11:08am Feb 1, 2014 3:56am | Edited 11:08am
- | Additional Username | Joined May 2013 | 724 Posts
Thanks Prof !
Thanks fex !
Edit :
I will sit down and think about it. Get used to the thought process, connect the dots that kind of stuff. I will have to come up with a check list or something like in the REVOLY PDF to help keep the train of thoughts in line. Thanks a lot!!!
Edit :
Prof Tah's mini lesson help cleared some of the smog in my head and I think a light bulb is not lit yet but flickering a little
I'm still learning this, it will take time...but I'm pretty sure I'm not that far off course now. I'm probably still not reading my charts accurately but in this lastest attempt using the same chart I shamelessly shared earlier, the pieces fit a lot better!
Note : The mini lesson I mentioned is post 64911. Its also in the PVSRA PDF actually. I just have'nt been able to connect the dots.
Note : I'm just using this as a chance quickly put down the newly understood stuff before I forget or get distracted so my apologies for the use of space.
Edit : My take based just on H1, practising how to think, higher TF analysis omitted for now. EU is bearish but volume appears to be shifting from the highs to the lows don't know how far MMs will take price, Monday will bring more clarity
Thanks fex !
Edit :
I will sit down and think about it. Get used to the thought process, connect the dots that kind of stuff. I will have to come up with a check list or something like in the REVOLY PDF to help keep the train of thoughts in line. Thanks a lot!!!
Edit :
Prof Tah's mini lesson help cleared some of the smog in my head and I think a light bulb is not lit yet but flickering a little
I'm still learning this, it will take time...but I'm pretty sure I'm not that far off course now. I'm probably still not reading my charts accurately but in this lastest attempt using the same chart I shamelessly shared earlier, the pieces fit a lot better! Note : The mini lesson I mentioned is post 64911. Its also in the PVSRA PDF actually. I just have'nt been able to connect the dots.
Note : I'm just using this as a chance quickly put down the newly understood stuff before I forget or get distracted so my apologies for the use of space.
Edit : My take based just on H1, practising how to think, higher TF analysis omitted for now. EU is bearish but volume appears to be shifting from the highs to the lows don't know how far MMs will take price, Monday will bring more clarity
I want more brain power!
- #64,913
- Feb 1, 2014 6:04pm Feb 1, 2014 6:04pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,914
- Edited 11:50pm Feb 1, 2014 10:45pm | Edited 11:50pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Just Ramblings From Home......
One of more than one reason that the Sonic R. System of Classic and Scout trades is successful is that we understand that the market cannot be predicted. This is important to know and accept. It is why I continually say that we cannot know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse. We don't dote on the mistaken belief that the market can be distilled to the essence of some repeated patterns which will lead to predictable results. There are many that do.
Forex Factory is full of threads that presume to ferret out the essence of such patterns and trade it, some even with EAs, in the belief that they have a reliable fore teller of good trades. How is it that over the years mathematicians of great ability have tried and all have failed to quantify and qualify the market mathematically, which is really what every pattern boils down to? The fact is, it cannot be done. It is a rabbit trail that will never lead anywhere. And we Sonicers are saved the embarrassment of wasting our time on it. The market is a business run for profit by the Market Makers, and they introduce randomness, deception and cloaking that thwarts any attempt to mathematically force the market's behavior to into a nice cookie mold for stamping out profits.
As Sonicers, we subscribe to the elegantly simple Classic trade setup as a setup where there comes together several conditions that it doesn't take a mathematician (nor a indicator created by one) to find because they are so clearly evident to the naked eye.
1. London session
2. Angle of Dragon
3. PA waves thru Dragon
4. Price on correct side of Dragon (and better still if on correct side of Trend)
5. Absence of close by obstacle (S&R) to successful move in the trade direction indicated
6. Previous notable volume at price levels that would suggest support of the price to move in the trade direction (PVSRA)
Successful trading is not the pre-empted domain of mathematicians, or complex math crunching indicators, or super fast computers. Successful trading requires the common sense to not run down those rabbit trails, keep a clean chart, and just be patient.
-tah
P.S: Multiple opportunities example on Friday, 100+ pips, 60+ pips, and 50+ pips.....
One of more than one reason that the Sonic R. System of Classic and Scout trades is successful is that we understand that the market cannot be predicted. This is important to know and accept. It is why I continually say that we cannot know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse. We don't dote on the mistaken belief that the market can be distilled to the essence of some repeated patterns which will lead to predictable results. There are many that do.
Forex Factory is full of threads that presume to ferret out the essence of such patterns and trade it, some even with EAs, in the belief that they have a reliable fore teller of good trades. How is it that over the years mathematicians of great ability have tried and all have failed to quantify and qualify the market mathematically, which is really what every pattern boils down to? The fact is, it cannot be done. It is a rabbit trail that will never lead anywhere. And we Sonicers are saved the embarrassment of wasting our time on it. The market is a business run for profit by the Market Makers, and they introduce randomness, deception and cloaking that thwarts any attempt to mathematically force the market's behavior to into a nice cookie mold for stamping out profits.
As Sonicers, we subscribe to the elegantly simple Classic trade setup as a setup where there comes together several conditions that it doesn't take a mathematician (nor a indicator created by one) to find because they are so clearly evident to the naked eye.
1. London session
2. Angle of Dragon
3. PA waves thru Dragon
4. Price on correct side of Dragon (and better still if on correct side of Trend)
5. Absence of close by obstacle (S&R) to successful move in the trade direction indicated
6. Previous notable volume at price levels that would suggest support of the price to move in the trade direction (PVSRA)
Successful trading is not the pre-empted domain of mathematicians, or complex math crunching indicators, or super fast computers. Successful trading requires the common sense to not run down those rabbit trails, keep a clean chart, and just be patient.
-tahP.S: Multiple opportunities example on Friday, 100+ pips, 60+ pips, and 50+ pips.....
- #64,915
- Edited 12:36am Feb 2, 2014 12:20am | Edited 12:36am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
The Big Sting (and the Banks Stink!)
Remember this?
I've been posting on gold off an on for some time now, over 1.5 years I believe. I've been posting my belief that gold would go lower, that big governments and big banks are in collusion to get the price down so the big governments can acquire more gold at lower prices to replace missing reserves "loaned out" and the big banks can collect it too. I've been posting that the end might come when some currency comes into crisis, bringing out the "talking heads" for the banks to persuade everyone, including "Joe the plumber" to start buying gold. At such time the big banks will reverse their price manipulation of gold and start running it back up, only so fast as to make heads spin,.....and to make the big banks and the big government billions, maybe trillions,...maybe more!
And now, I find this article very interesting:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ld-derivatives
Now, I do not begin to understand the in's and out's of "Gold Derivatives Notionals" and their valuation, but man with only 1 billion in cold hard gold and more than 65 billion bullshit paper whose value is subject to someones "notion!", could this start to smell like another blow-up is coming, just like this same firm's handling and blow-up of real estate derivatives?
This could get real interesting as the story of price manipulated gold, and the selling of "notional" gold (non-existent gold, gold that is just a figment of imagination, sort of like "Naked Shorts") continues to unfold, especially since apparently folks have put a lot more money into what doesn't exist than what does!
-tah
Remember this?
I've been posting on gold off an on for some time now, over 1.5 years I believe. I've been posting my belief that gold would go lower, that big governments and big banks are in collusion to get the price down so the big governments can acquire more gold at lower prices to replace missing reserves "loaned out" and the big banks can collect it too. I've been posting that the end might come when some currency comes into crisis, bringing out the "talking heads" for the banks to persuade everyone, including "Joe the plumber" to start buying gold. At such time the big banks will reverse their price manipulation of gold and start running it back up, only so fast as to make heads spin,.....and to make the big banks and the big government billions, maybe trillions,...maybe more!
And now, I find this article very interesting:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ld-derivatives
Now, I do not begin to understand the in's and out's of "Gold Derivatives Notionals" and their valuation, but man with only 1 billion in cold hard gold and more than 65 billion bullshit paper whose value is subject to someones "notion!", could this start to smell like another blow-up is coming, just like this same firm's handling and blow-up of real estate derivatives?
This could get real interesting as the story of price manipulated gold, and the selling of "notional" gold (non-existent gold, gold that is just a figment of imagination, sort of like "Naked Shorts") continues to unfold, especially since apparently folks have put a lot more money into what doesn't exist than what does!
-tah
- #64,918
- Feb 2, 2014 6:57am Feb 2, 2014 6:57am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 2,124 Posts
, could this start to smell like another blow-up is coming, just like this same firm's handling and blow-up of real estate derivatives? This could get real interesting as the story of price manipulated gold, and the selling of "notional" gold (non-existent gold, gold that is just a figment of imagination, sort of like "Naked Shorts") continues to unfold, especially since apparently folks have put a lot more money into what doesn't exist than what does!
fokyou forexfactory
- #64,919
- Feb 2, 2014 7:57am Feb 2, 2014 7:57am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts
{quote} GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis W5/2014 Bias: SHort (Mid) Last week was tricky as mentioned. It was a bull in early week only to get it sell down by last Thursday and Friday. This is the 'type' of move that kills inexperience newbie day traders. Anyway, the week ends with nice looking bearish Bar.. and it is at nice support level (See White box).. I am looking forward for it to go the orange boxes level.. But anything can happen still.. See you in the box {image} Sonic {image}
GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis W6/2014
Bias: SHort (Mid)
Lot of hivnig and jiving and still managed to ends as the bear bar..
We have NFP this week..
Sonic