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Sonic R. System

  • #64,861
  • Jan 30, 2014 6:14pm Jan 30, 2014 6:14pm
Quoting loeil
{quote} NU - another view why I think it's bullish. First marked candle is a big candle, bigger than previous candles, but look at the volume, volume is lower than previous bars. It is showing no professional selling interest. Second marked candle closes below than the big candle on the left side, but look at the volume again. Volume is again lower than previous two, no professional selling interest there. It is just what I see. {image}
First off, this is not an argument between loeil and myself. We are discussing how we interpret price action and volume, as it occurs in and around key support and resistance (PVSRA).

Indeed the waning volume at the lows is difficult to interpret here. With nothing more to go on, it is difficult to know if the waning volume is due to exhausted liquidity for the MMs to fill their long orders due to no more longs to stop out and too low for more shorters to be coming in, or if it is due to exhausted liquidity for getting their short orders filled due to no more longs coming in because they've become uncertain due to the low price.

This is why I fall back on "Let the Dragon and PA show the way" from Master Sonicdeejay. So long as the Dragon is angled down and PA is below the Dragon, bearishness takes priority in the face of nothing that is certain enough to contradict it.
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  • #64,862
  • Jan 30, 2014 6:23pm Jan 30, 2014 6:23pm
NU Short Trade Opened:

Entered short #1, Scout. Following the first of two NZD high impact releases, the Market Makers spiked the price, and they continued to support the price upwards thru the second release, after which they climaxed the price up thru the 3/4SR. This is where and when I entered short. No TP at this time.

It remains to be seen if the subsequent drop is to stop out longs, which would mean the MMs are actually bulls, not bears, and that my trade is in jeopardy. On the other hand, this drop might be genuine selling indicating the MMs are bears and that more downside is coming. Time will tell.
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  • #64,863
  • Jan 30, 2014 6:25pm Jan 30, 2014 6:25pm
NJ Short Trade Opened:

Entered short #1, Scout. This trade is made on the same basis as my new NU short trade posted immediately above, by waiting for the MMs to put the price at/above the whole number. No TP at this time.
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  • #64,864
  • Jan 30, 2014 7:56pm Jan 30, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURAUD Short Trade Update: Since the last post on this longer running trade, I have added shorts #6-19. Today, I lost one due to Margin stress, 580.8 pips lost. {image}
EURAUD Short Trade Update:

Since last update I've added shorts #19-21, with multiple units for EPs 20-21. On M1 attached, I view the run down at the AUD high impact release as genuine selling due to strengthening Aussie. I view the run back up as the MMs sucking in longs to get liquidity for additional shorting over the same range. The notable volume at the low is simply "stop the drop" volume. That the volume at the low is notable is all the better to fool and encourage longs to start coming in as the MMs begin to support the price higher and higher to get them to come in.
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  • #64,865
  • Jan 30, 2014 8:07pm Jan 30, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GJ Short Trade Update: Added short #4, a Classic. Note the extreme bear bar today, and its volume! No TP yet. I want to see first how this moves. {image}
GJ Short Trade Update:

Added short #5, a Scout, after the price retraced back to previous highs at the 3/4SR, now an established resistance level.
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  • #64,866
  • Jan 30, 2014 8:17pm Jan 30, 2014 8:17pm
EU Comment:

You can see how the Market Makers are really in a quandary now. The trading is in an 11 pips range! They don't know how they are going to work it next. It doesn't deserve to go higher, but that is where they'd like to take it so they can get more shorts at better than current prices. But to do that, they need long suckers. Gee, are there any left out there?

Of course, the bear MMs could just start whacking it now, but that would feel really strange to them after one and a half years of pumping it at every event, good or bad!

Then too, there is another event coming in under eight hours, another EUR high impact release. I gotta tell you this. In certain circles there is a move on to sort of rename the EUR High Impact releases to EUR Pump High releases. Certain folks are advocates of this idea because it makes more sense since at every event EUR gets pumped, no matter what!

Meanwhile, back to this 11 pips range. You know, the only time this is confined to such a narrow range is on the weekends........when it isn't traded.
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  • #64,867
  • Jan 30, 2014 8:38pm Jan 30, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} loeil, Thank you for your reply (pic 1). Well, this is going to be interesting then because I still see it as bearish (pic 2). My reasons are: 1. The first marked candle of high volume is not striking the lowest prices, which opens the possibility it is a sell-off situation. 2. The second marked candle of high volume pushes the price back up to/thru the upper half number, which is (very important) immediately followed by a pin bar that could represent the clearing out up there of the liquidity for shorting. As it stands, still the Dragon...
a very clear lesson . short simple and easy to understand. Thank pro TAH
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  • #64,868
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:48pm Jan 30, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting traderathome
NJ Short Trade Opened: Entered short #1, Scout. This trade is made on the same basis as my new NU short trade posted immediately above, by waiting for the MMs to put the price at/above the whole number. No TP at this time. {image}
NJ Short Trade Update:

Added shorts #2-3, a Scout and a much larger sized pre-LS Classic. No TP set yet.
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  • #64,869
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:54pm Jan 30, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting traderathome
NU Short Trade Opened: Entered short #1, Scout. Following the first of two NZD high impact releases, the Market Makers spiked the price, and they continued to support the price upwards thru the second release, after which they climaxed the price up thru the 3/4SR. This is where and when I entered short. No TP at this time. It remains to be seen if the subsequent drop is to stop out longs, which would mean the MMs are actually bulls, not bears, and that my trade is in jeopardy. On the other hand, this drop might be genuine selling indicating the...
NU Short Trade Update:

Added shorts #2-3, a Scout and a much larger pre-LS Classic. No TP set yet.
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  • #64,870
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:57pm Jan 30, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting sachin1361
{quote} But I can only see EU falling further. I am on the Shorts and +20 pips so far. Can see it upto 1.3550
<br />
<br />

Told cha already EU touching 1.3550, here it is...

Look at H4 chart that clearly shows Mark down..Can see it further falling if no high volume Bull indicator at support levels..
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  • #64,871
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:23pm Jan 30, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade Update: Added short #3, a Scout. I still have a pending short order near the upper whole number, but I have added this short Scout because the MMs might not push price up there. As it stands here in after hours trading, the Dragon is down and has slipped below the Trend line, a bearish situation. And this retrace back up to/into the Dragon is suspiciously looking like bear MMs hiking price when it is easier to do so, to further their accumulation of short orders. {image}
GU Short Trade Update:

Since last posting I have added shorts #4-5, a Scout and a pre-LS Classic. The Classic was just added and a TP set.
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  • #64,872
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:30pm Jan 30, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} NJ Short Trade Update: Added shorts #2-3, a Scout and a much larger sized pre-LS Classic. No TP set yet. {image}
NJ Short Trade Closed:

Set TP. TP reached and trade closed for 531.2 pips gain.
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  • #64,873
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:31pm Jan 30, 2014 10:31pm
Hi All,
I just wanted to introduce myself and say thanks for the system...

I will be spending the next month running through it.

i know in the manual you mentioned to learn it first, but could i share what i think are trade set ups?

Eaymon
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  • #64,874
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:09pm Jan 30, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} NU Short Trade Update: Added shorts #2-3, a Scout and a much larger pre-LS Classic. No TP set yet. {image}
NU Short Trade Closed:

Set TP. TP reached and trade closed for 251.1 pips gain.
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  • #64,875
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:27pm Jan 30, 2014 11:27pm
CADCHF Long Trade Opened:

Entered long #1, Scout. You can see across to the left on the chart that the Asian session MMs have cut the price back down to that resistance area you see over there. It might now be a support area if the MMs support the price here. You can also see how the trading notably increased as they got the price back down. Therefore, I see this as an indication the MMs are bulls and that they are supporting the price here. So, I have made a Scout long entry here. No TP set at this time.
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  • #64,876
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:33pm Jan 30, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting JRissa
{quote} I still see bulls at background as I have stated in previous posts. All recent ultrahigh volumes have been at lowest prices and I'm still thinking this move as a "fake" or first move, that will clear longer term bulls off and after that they would swing price back up causing all bears bail out +bulls hop right on again. That would create liquiditity to blast through weekly upper trendline. Maby go all the way to even 1.45... But right now there's 1.38.. On my mind... Last two week candles together form bullish pinbar. This weeks candle will...
I am with you on this, fully support that EURO will be rally instead of fall. Not on pure speculation but on historical HEAVY Support zone on H1 & H4.

I don't think a MONTH TF is suitable to explain, if it is suitable, then AUD,NZD,GBP and USD JPY could not be explainable.
Fundamental changes etc.

Week TF is the best highest TF in my opinion. Even Master SONIC see his weekly bias by using weekly TF

However I would use H1,H4,D1, and maybe W1 as my chart too.
Lets get EURO up kill the retail traders (base on oanda open position)
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
  • #64,877
  • Edited Jan 31, 2014 12:11am Jan 30, 2014 11:45pm | Edited Jan 31, 2014 12:11am
Quoting chaosbun
{quote} I am with you on this, fully support that EURO will be rally instead of fall. Not on pure speculation but on historical HEAVY Support zone on H1 & H4. I don't think a MONTH TF is suitable to explain, if it is suitable, then AUD,NZD,GBP and USD JPY could not be explainable. Fundamental changes etc. Week TF is the best highest TF in my opinion. Even Master SONIC see his weekly bias by using weekly TF However I would use H1,H4,D1, and maybe W1 as my chart too. Lets get EURO up kill the retail traders (base on oanda open position)
PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears?

There are far more accepted PA clues indicating the MMs are bears than there are that they aren't, regardless of what "oanda open positions" are (as if they were important, which they aren't). And, quite logically, the MMs will use "convenient" historic support areas to support the price, but not because they are bulls, but because they want everyone else to be bulls, and give to the MMs the liquidity the MMs need to build their short positions.

And also as a matter of logical reasoning, the MMs don't screw around for pennies. Once they have built their position, no matter the variation of the swings, they are going to have their day in the sun, a really, really, really good Run for Profits. The 300 pips MOL range this has been in is chicken feed for them. And the price has been in it quite a while already.
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Also, while the WEEK chart has recently captivated Sonic, he is steadfast in his resolution to "Let the Dragon and PA show the way." So, putting the Dragon on this chart,.......TA DA!.....yep, it is beginning to angle down and guess what.......PA is below the Dragon.
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1.3300 could easily be in the cards for some time in February if not 1.3200, and 1.3400 maybe sooner than folks would expect. But, this is all just surmising based on the charts. Time will tell.

-tah
  • #64,878
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:08am Jan 31, 2014 1:08am
Quoting traderathome
CADCHF Long Trade Opened: Entered long #1, Scout. You can see across to the left on the chart that the Asian session MMs have cut the price back down to that resistance area you see over there. It might now be a support area if the MMs support the price here. You can also see how the trading notably increased as they got the price back down. Therefore, I see this as an indication the MMs are bulls and that they are supporting the price here. So, I have made a Scout long entry here. No TP set at this time. {image}
CADCHF Long Trade Update:

Added long #2, pre-LS Classic. Set tentative TP.
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  • #64,879
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:11am Jan 31, 2014 1:11am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears? There are far more accepted PA clues indicating the MMs are bears than there are that they aren't, regardless of what "oanda open positions" are (as if they were important, which they aren't). And, quite logically, the MMs will use "convenient" historic support areas to support the price, but not because they are bulls, but because they want everyone else to be bulls, and give to the MMs the liquidity the MMs need to build their short positions. And also as a matter of logical reasoning, the MMs don't screw around...
You might be absolutely right once again Professor, but I have my reasons to stay in this long position still little longer...

I think that down now would be too easy. Isn't that what everyone is expecting? I have learned to always expect the unexpected. Most of the times, it's the highest propability scenario
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This drifting slowly little downwards would give MM's huge long orders as everyone else shorts. Everyone can see this strong weekly/monthly trendline and thinking that it will hold once again.

Also as you said that as Master Sonicdeejay always says; let the dragon show the way. I see up!
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Edit:
And right now came negative euro news and price stayed still with high volume.
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I know the secret...
  • #64,880
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:17am Jan 31, 2014 1:17am
Quoting JRissa
{quote} You might be absolutely right once again Professor, but I have my reasons to stay in this long position still little longer... I think that down now would be too easy. Isn't that what everyone is expecting? I have learned to always expect the unexpected. Most of the times, it's the highest propability scenario {image} {image} This drifting slowly little downwards would give MM's huge long orders as everyone else shorts. Everyone can see this strong weekly/monthly trendline and thinking that it will hold once again. Also as you said...
Actually, many people trade demand supply, support resistance. Given the huge bullish bar on the left, it's not hard to imagine that many traders will be buying at this "low" price.

Most, including me, would have expected price to at least bounce here; the truly unexpected will be for price to crash straight through...
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