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  • #361,121
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:19pm Jan 28, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} although we have a very diverse trading style, davit, your description of some trading-behavior is correct in my point of view: one canīt predict the outcome of a news release in the future by looking at the past. post hoc ergo propter hoc: " today, i got up on the wrong side of bed. afterwards, i dropped my coffee cup. therefore, the reason why i dropped my coffee cup is that i got up on the wrong side of bed"
remember last Thursday US unemployment data? The data was pretty good so the US dollar should go up and cable down. Nope, the market ignored the data, and both euro and cable went up later on. When data releases are in the direction of the PA it will cause a big spike, but when it is in the opposite direction most often it will be ignored or cause a small spike at the best and retrace back afterwards. The market movements are driven by profit seeking, not by some data releases of short-term data.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #361,122
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:28pm Jan 28, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} although we have a very diverse trading style, davit, your description of some trading-behavior is correct in my point of view: one canīt predict the outcome of a news release in the future by looking at the past. post hoc ergo propter hoc: " today, i got up on the wrong side of bed. afterwards, i dropped my coffee cup. therefore, the reason why i dropped my coffee cup is that i got up on the wrong side of bed"

True good post.
As Baggi said if one waits for the outcome then trades in right direction is honest but saying today "I see we are going to 1.67" is BS
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #361,123
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:29pm Jan 28, 2014 12:29pm
I also got cautious about the news after different events in the last weeks. The markets did not move according to the news in some cases, and if they did, a trend in the other direction took off just to be shot down. So the whole concept of trading news becomes questionable for me.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #361,124
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:30pm Jan 28, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} True if you have solid data feed on volume but volume works both direction. Truth is we don't know the outcome hence claiming it was in the chart is erroneous and false.
The actual statement as applied to FOREX seems a little meaningless as true volume doesn't exist, no centralized source.

That being said, indication and movement are match perfect to what you can see in a more controlled environment like the stoch exchange.

Tripping stocks is a little different as you can see actual volume, but the movement is the same, thus the reason for translation of indicators and pattern recognition are relevant back and forth, ie, you can use the same tools to measure the same movements, with or without the actual volume.

Just because it isn't there, doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.

The same patterns based on Volume are applicable whether you can see the Volume or Not.

Oversold and Overbought are accurate terms that can be applied effectively...you just need to have perspective. Oversold on a Long chart is a buy. Guessing absolute bottom on a chart by looking for oversold, is suicide.

See 2 x links. Both Press Driven Plays, both I took by way of a single idea that market was either overbought or oversold as relevant to its situation...
HERE.
HERE.

Both of which I managed almost exact and complete range of play.

I don't do press...there is no reason that I need to.

It really is, all in the charts.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #361,125
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:30pm Jan 28, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} remember last Thursday US unemployment data? The data was pretty good so the US dollar should go up and cable down. Nope, the market ignored the data, and both euro and cable went up later on. When data releases are in the direction of the PA it will cause a big spike, but when it is in the opposite direction most often it will be ignored or cause a small spike at the best and retrace back afterwards. The market movements are driven by profit seeking, not by some data releases of short-term data.
yes, i remember that - especially because i waited for an event-driven volatility breakout which is my main setup. all i wanted to say is: you canīt predict the outcome of an news release before the release by looking on the chart in t-1
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #361,126
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:32pm Jan 28, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting Hickson
I also got cautious about the news after different events in the last weeks. The markets did not move according to the news in some cases, and if they did, a trend in the other direction took off just to be shot down. So the whole concept of trading news becomes questionable for me.
The pairs can be accurately traded from US data releases is USD/JPY and G/U and E/U to some extend.
  • #361,127
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:33pm Jan 28, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} yes, i remember that - especially because i waited for an event-driven volatility breakout which is my main setup. all i wanted to say is: you canīt predict the outcome of an news release before the release by looking on the chart in t-1
This is kind of a vague statement that could be better qualified.

I may not know the outcome of the actual press...but I can predict it's impact on market, through the use of a technical analysis.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #361,128
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:40pm Jan 28, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is kind of a vague statement that could be better qualified. I may not know the outcome of the actual press...but I can predict it's impact on market, through the use of a technical analysis.

Technically despite of Bullish trend tomorrows FOMC can send this pair 6450 and even break Lower TL or send upper level of 6660
but you have no way of knowing which way that would go correct?So its not in the charts now correct?
I agree with you on volume and that's why I don't use it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #361,129
  • Edited 1:00pm Jan 28, 2014 12:41pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} True good post. As Baggi said if one waits for the outcome then trades in right direction is honest but saying today "I see we are going to 1.67" is BS
thanks.
add: right you are. waiting and trade what you see make sense.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #361,130
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:51pm Jan 28, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is kind of a vague statement that could be better qualified. I may not know the outcome of the actual press...but I can predict it's impact on market, through the use of a technical analysis.
iīm sure you canīt. technical analysis can not predict impact of future data. if you could, you would be a billionaire within months starting with letīs say 100.000. there ainīt no such thing as a free lunch.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #361,131
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:07pm Jan 28, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} thanks. add: right you are. waiting and trade what you see make sense.

Traders here often post numbers like 1.70 1.80 even 2008 highs.There is something critically missing- interest rate in 2008 was way higher and USD lower hence the discrepancy. Now we got .5 UK and not likely to go up 1yr or 2yrs
How is this formula for 1.70 explain please or even better why should price break 5yr range that pound has been trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #361,132
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:10pm Jan 28, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Technically despite of Bullish trend tomorrows FOMC can send this pair 6450 and even break Lower TL or send upper level of 6660 but you have no way of knowing which way that would go correct?So its not in the charts now correct? I agree with you on volume and that's why I don't use it. {image}

We're not there yet.

How much time between now and FOMC?

How many active sessions will be traded between now and then?

What else currently can have an impact on currency between now and then?

The previous charts I posted, we're M1 time frame. That's all the time I need to look at.

Until we are current, we aren't.

I also don't know what price we will hit at or to...that is not where my forecasts are, they are directional impact.

I never claimed a crystal ball for all future events, but I will claim a high hit rate based on performance during times of press impact, based 100% on pure technicals.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #361,133
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:14pm Jan 28, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} The pairs can be accurately traded from US data releases is USD/JPY and G/U and E/U to some extend.
Thanks for your insight. With these I noticed the biggest agreement between news and movement. Also the loonie seems to strongly react to news. I think the correlation between the oil price and the value of the loonie is one of the reasons for that. At the time being, all data points towards a weak CAD anyway, so the sentiment might be even more bearish on loonie.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #361,134
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:14pm Jan 28, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} iīm sure you canīt. technical analysis can not predict impact of future data. if you could, you would be a billionaire within months starting with letīs say 100.000. there ainīt no such thing as a free lunch.

Because you cannot, don't assume what others can do.

And the billionaire statement?

Really?

How naive are you?

It is a shame that there isn't some sort of basic traders quiz that would hinge membership. This would eliminate us having to read dribble like this.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #361,135
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:27pm Jan 28, 2014 1:27pm
although news is not released ,I think large traders/banks put a lot of homework in ,and then trade technically ,

Quoting Davit
{quote} Can I ask you a question Bones? Often when Tech traders happened to be on the right side of news they claim "it was in the chart" That to me makes no logical sense, content of the news has not been released yet so how can present chart predict the news outcome.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #361,136
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:27pm Jan 28, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Can I ask you a question Bones? Often when Tech traders happened to be on the right side of news they claim "it was in the chart" That to me makes no logical sense, content of the news has not been released yet so how can present chart predict the news outcome.
Good point. It isn't.

Even when new information hits the wires, market volatility wrenches up....why?.....because even when this new info
is now "in" the price, still market has to decide what to make of it.

The best we as traders can do is to try and interpret the impact of that new info through our analysis afterwards.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #361,137
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:28pm Jan 28, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Because you cannot, don't assume what others can do. And the billionaire statement? Really? How naive are you? It is a shame that there isn't some sort of basic traders quiz that would hinge membership. This would eliminate us having to read dribble like this.
feel free to behave and trade whatever you think. basic traders quiz? maybe you could hand in your university degree, your job reference discribing your more than a decade employee-ship in three banks and your account statement to prove your right to judge me as naive. then we can talk on a same level playing field...
have a great time
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #361,138
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:33pm Jan 28, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Good point. It isn't. Even when new information hits the wires, market volatility wrenches up....why?.....because even when this new info is now "in" the price, still market has to decide what to make of it. The best we as traders can do is to try and interpret the impact of that new info through our analysis afterwards.

Thanks for reply I agree with this.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #361,139
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:35pm Jan 28, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Good point. It isn't. Even when new information hits the wires, market volatility wrenches up....why?.....because even when this new info is now "in" the price, still market has to decide what to make of it. The best we as traders can do is to try and interpret the impact of that new info through our analysis afterwards.
good day to you, GlobalMacro. afterwards is the keyword. any open positions?
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #361,140
  • Jan 28, 2014 1:36pm Jan 28, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Bones
although news is not released ,I think large traders/banks put a lot of homework in ,and then trade technically , {quote}

I read a book of former Bank trader and he claimed 40% of their decisions were based on fundamentals rest sentiment and lastly only 10% technical.
I think tech part is just for exits and new entries but trade decisions are based on fundies.Maybe I am just reiterating your post part "homework"

At least we got people thinking....
In Hedge fund wizards there is a fund manager who does not even look at charts and his returns are phenomenal
Totally anti tech guy.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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