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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #360,921
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:56pm Jan 27, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am sympathetic time you spend analyzing this.... default is up or down no matter what time frame even so called "sideways" action price still either goes up or down.If you mean breakout from current range I agree we will know after FOMC weds

Thanks for that Davit. You can be the Martin to my Lewis.
  • #360,922
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:08pm Jan 27, 2014 8:08pm
Quoting Baggi
Alright guys, here it is, please pay close attention to this analysis, as I put a lot of time into it. 1) I've run all my algorithms and studied each of them until my eyes are blurry. 2) I've looked at the charts on the 30 minute, hourly, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly time frames. 3) I've drawn the trend lines and re drawn the trend lines just in case by zooming in and out on my charts. 4) I've worked myself until I have developed carpal tunnel and I've reached this final conclusion with 98.7% accuracy. What's the conclusion? That from here,...
By far the most realistic (and honest) analysis I've ever read
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #360,923
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:22pm Jan 27, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting Baggi
Alright guys, here it is, please pay close attention to this analysis, as I put a lot of time into it. 1) I've run all my algorithms and studied each of them until my eyes are blurry. 2) I've looked at the charts on the 30 minute, hourly, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly time frames. 3) I've drawn the trend lines and re drawn the trend lines just in case by zooming in and out on my charts. 4) I've worked myself until I have developed carpal tunnel and I've reached this final conclusion with 98.7% accuracy. What's the conclusion? That from here,...

Excellent analysis............
Is it possible to conclude therefore that upcoming GBP data might lend further insight
(possible carpal tunnel relief until) ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #360,924
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:33pm Jan 27, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Excellent analysis............ Is it possible to conclude therefore that upcoming GBP data might lend further insight (possible carpal tunnel relief until) ?

Oh, absolutely. I also add transgressive, reverse, psycho fundamentals into my analysis. Given that Yellen is sure to speak and to speak loudly while making sense, the pair GBP/USD will undoubtedly see a rise, or a fall, once the speaking has begun, and then finished.
  • #360,925
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:37pm Jan 27, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Oh, absolutely. I also add transgressive,
I don't get into that transgressive thing. Everything else seems OK though ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #360,926
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:09pm Jan 27, 2014 9:09pm
enormous spike WTF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5.png Size: 29 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,927
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:12pm Jan 27, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting Davit
enormous spike WTF {image}

it was in the charts.......but is 25 pip spike really enormous? See if there is follow through.....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #360,928
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:13pm Jan 27, 2014 9:13pm
either today's data is leaked or this some positioning by macro long funds. In Oct we got a 60 pip fall in 5 mins. this is looking similar. will be hard for the cable to rally from here on. carney's efforts have gone in vain
  • #360,929
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:13pm Jan 27, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting Faller
{quote} it was in the charts.......but is 25 pip spike really enormous? See if there is follow through.....

Yes its big considering liquidity...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,930
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:16pm Jan 27, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting Faller
{quote} it was in the charts.......but is 25 pip spike really enormous? See if there is follow through.....
don't talk shit. nothing was there in the charts when it fell from 1.6664 to 1.6482. this is pure trap trading which the cable is doing nowadays
  • #360,931
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:19pm Jan 27, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting giveachance
either today's data is leaked or this some positioning by macro long funds. In Oct we got a 60 pip fall in 5 mins. this is looking similar. will be hard for the cable to rally from here on. carney's efforts have gone in vain

or could be case of creating liquidity for Short by 1st buying and having small time traders jump on "breakout" and once enough momentum created dump all the short orders in sequential way.
This is what fake out is.

Introduction to the fake out


We know there are two types of traders participating in these markets. The novice trader that is under capitalized and is pretty naive when it comes to trading knowledge. And then there are the real big pros, the hedge funds, the banks and other institutions who know their stuff and have really big accounts. These 'cool' traders however suffer from a major problem that stems from the size of their account. The problem of liquidity. The FX markets are amongst the most liquid markets in the world yet there still is a problem when a hedge fund wants to sell 10,000,000 units of EUR/USD at resistance where obviously others are willing to short as well. You see why? How many traders do you think want to long in a market that is heading towards resistance? This poses a serious problem and these guys will then take some measures to get rid of this problem. These are smart people BTW. They break their position sizes into smaller lots and execute it at closely bound price levels instead of clicking a 10,000,000 position size at a single price level.They also artificially create buy side liquidity in the market by targeting the novice traders.

Small positions selling into support and buying into resistance, create the "buzz". Or just simply pulling off all orders leaving a vacuum for retail traders to push price through. Enough manipulation to lure traders into thinking price is headed for a break of support/resistance. The breakout traders start jumping in. At resistance for instance, traders short in the market who most likely will have their stops above resistance or below support (the pros know it all!) start to freak out and their stops start getting hit creating more buy side liquidity (a stop loss on a short order is actually a long). By creating an artificial scenario in the market the pro traders have managed to, like a sheep dog, get the herd where they want them to be.

They can now pull out their long positions and start dumping their huge short orders on traders willing to now buy into a breakout that is going to be a fake one. Now guess what? All those traders that jumped in long will start hitting their stop losses because the big orders are propelling price south and which creates more selling in the market to take price down (long traders will close their trades by selling their positions), but the pros are already in and any selling pressure now is just adding cash to their wallets. Some smart folks and james16 are probably looking at pin bar showing this very information and are short too WITH THE BIG BOYS. DO you now see how the 95% of losing traders are filling up the pockets of the remaining 5%? The naive trader lost when he was short at resistance. He also lost when he thought he could catch a smooth break out.

These pros have nothing against retail traders. Its like a huge ocean where survival for the big fish means consuming smaller fish. Its a zero sum game after all.
Copied from here
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,932
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:21pm Jan 27, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting Rtm
GU still looking bullish, yet Im going to short. {image}
GU still looks bullish, good thing I didnt short
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #360,933
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:23pm Jan 27, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting giveachance
either today's data is leaked or this some positioning by macro long funds. In Oct we got a 60 pip fall in 5 mins. this is looking similar. will be hard for the cable to rally from here on. carney's efforts have gone in vain

if true watch that other currency.......what do they call it? The Euro......

GBP strength can result in Euro weakness and therefore further USD strength.

Euro still in a difficult situation.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #360,934
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:29pm Jan 27, 2014 9:29pm
carney gap has closed. so it recovered 140 pips on back of no news. when this thing starts falling there will be only sellers. I thought carney started the rally but seems like it is postponed a bit now. cmon bernanke.
  • #360,935
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:35pm Jan 27, 2014 9:35pm
I'm a little suspicious of Asian breakout moves myself.

We have hit a broken 1hr support area

I'd be waiting for the shape of this and/or the 4hr closed candle for clues..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #360,936
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} GU still looks bullish, good thing I didnt short
It's NOT exactly out of the woods Yet !!
Marked the daily demand a few days back , and am not too sure it has enough MOjo ..
I 'm looking for weakness to show it's ugly head on 4 hr chart , and I SHORT the b*tch ..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4 -3.png Size: 49 KB
  • #360,937
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting giveachance
carney gap has closed. so it recovered 140 pips on back of no news. when this thing starts falling there will be only sellers. I thought carney started the rally but seems like it is postponed a bit now. cmon bernanke.

No more Ben
Try Super Yellen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fat-wonder-woman.jpg Size: 94 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,938
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm Jan 27, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} or could be case of creating liquidity for Short by 1st buying and having small time traders jump on "breakout" and once enough momentum created dump all the short orders in sequential way. This is what fake out is. Introduction to the fake out We know there are two types of traders participating in these markets. The novice trader that is under capitalized and is pretty naive when it comes to trading knowledge. And then there are the real big pros, the hedge funds, the banks and other institutions who know their stuff and have really big...
Throw in some US media reco's and it makes you realise there are NO free lunches in this business...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #360,939
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:47pm Jan 27, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} No more Ben Try Super Yellen {image}
she's hot...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #360,940
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:48pm Jan 27, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Throw in some US media reco's and it makes you realise there are NO free lunches in this business...

True tough and that's why we should never pick on each other.It should be Retail VS institutions.Understanding their motives is money on our packets.
Lot of stops got cleared already.I anticipate nose dive any moment.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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