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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #360,721
  • Edited 9:23am Jan 25, 2014 8:59am | Edited 9:23am
I am watching this idea to see if there is validity to it.One can never stop learning.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=449489
So I downloaded the indi measured yearly low and high and drew a 50% mid point as base line.

You can read the details on the thread.Based on this theory if price breaks upper box 76% it will reach 50% and if it does break 50 price will reach 23 at 5727
So far so good.His idea is S/R levels are predetermined.Fresh thinking.
I may lower my shorts TP

I recalculated and 1.55 is 50% mid point as base line which makes sense to me.
according to theory price should of turn around at 6460's but overshot by another 220pips up hmmm and abruptly came back to upper baseZone
76fib is at 6237 which is interesting area because if you look to your left you will see price touched this area repeatedly
I drew a green box for clarity.
What attracts me about this concept is that markets shifts at roughly 1000pip points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.weekly.png Size: 58 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,722
  • Jan 25, 2014 9:47am Jan 25, 2014 9:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} great..unfortunately i cant monitor trades at work so i have to go with what i believe is the long term direction for cable and no way is it up..we have simply been consolidating in the secondary trend, friday morning we got to a point where it was interesting and market completely changed..bears are strong just waiting.. 1.5750 is coming but there it will be tricky with a bit of luck we will see this by march u have been trading absolutely great bro!!

Thanks for the compliment Bro
I hope price goes lot lower so you can get out of this positions with profit. Jan 29th Feds statement coming up.This could be good for USD as I suspect Yellen may turn out to be more hawkish then people anticipate.She officially starts in Feb but I think Ben is done and has no say future policy making.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,723
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:02am Jan 25, 2014 10:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} great..unfortunately i cant monitor trades at work so i have to go with what i believe is the long term direction for cable and no way is it up..we have simply been consolidating in the secondary trend, friday morning we got to a point where it was interesting and market completely changed..bears are strong just waiting.. 1.5750 is coming but there it will be tricky with a bit of luck we will see this by march u have been trading absolutely great bro!!

Happy Late New Year to you Navin2007!

Hope all is well ~

Nav....so far this year I have been focusing on the USD. Although I was watching and traded natty gas a bit but did not catch the biggest part of the explosive move up! Anyway - From what I am observing, the USD (or the DX - dollar index) which indicates the USD strength against a basket of currencies has been showing very good strength - the USD is up big against CAD and the YEN, has gained on the swissy, has a nice IHS / double bottom on the SEK and while cable and the euro have been strong against the USD it appears on a 12 hour chart that they are both approaching the upper levels and both are in good resistance levels. So in short -

USD has been and is strong against CAD & YEN

USD is holding and gaining in Swissy / Sek

USD is showing resilience and looking to gain against Cable and the Euro


I was very surprised at the Euro and Cable moves the other night - almost like a blow off top. The Euro moved up big when the French PMI numbers came out......and those numbers are STILL below 50 which means contraction....so although they beat expectation (Manufacturing PMI Expected 47.6 Actual 48.8 and Service PMI Expected 48.2 Actual 48.6) they did not beat by much and they are still in contraction mode as most of the Euro countries.

We still have the bank stress tests to come out of Euro zone - so I would have to say that things are starting to line up for a long term trade. Just make sure you pick the right pair and the right side for that long term trade!

Just my insight Nav - take care my friend.


Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #360,724
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:41am Jan 25, 2014 10:41am
cable is chop ! haha
I really like it I wouldn't be surprised if it dose not retrace ,good close ,up against 2 x reasonable bullish candle


Quoting Rtm
There is a nice bearish outside bar on GU but doesnt it concern anyone that it is trading into a lot of chop?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD d1 example Spot.png Size: 40 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #360,725
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:51am Jan 25, 2014 10:51am
btw ,I never noticed at the time but the example was the 3rd large bullish candle what I should have said at the time ,was they were in association ,like the 2 (maybe 3)large red now
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #360,726
  • Jan 25, 2014 11:10am Jan 25, 2014 11:10am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} {quote} I really so Sorry... Add the Chart, today. Cause got TROUBLE Connection @ yesterday. Attention : In 'Next Week' will get exciting SURPRISE in the Market ! TAKE CARE & TRADE SAFE G/L {image}


what hat surprise you mean...????????
  • #360,727
  • Jan 25, 2014 1:02pm Jan 25, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} look with all the news and positive gdp and unemployment cable barely has moved..bears are waiting..its just that many are short, way to many and statistically the majority is mainly wrong..its all in the air thou..i must say..price b4 yesterday had me concerned
I was just kidding with him Nav, trying to calm it all down.
Hope all is ok nAV.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #360,728
  • Jan 25, 2014 1:20pm Jan 25, 2014 1:20pm
On the daily chart this will be considered a retracement so far. Right now we are on the 23 fib and still have some room before we hit the stronger resistance at 1.6400 Right now bears are in temporary control but this can change in a moments notice. Monday price will definintely tell what the overall markets think about where cable is headed. Naked price action traders might want to short this but taking a 200 pip SL even with correction position sizing seems to barely get a 1 to 1 risk reward trade and not worth it . The Simple moving averages trend traders will probably be looking for long entry on the 4hrlys. All depends on how you look at it. On a shorter time frame I kknow a lot of traders got burned trying to call the bottom of this move and unless you are confident, maybe sitting on your hands on monday maybe the right play.
  • #360,729
  • Jan 25, 2014 1:39pm Jan 25, 2014 1:39pm
In retrospect , with all credit to Samansadeghi. He did point out that on the weeklies there are some bearish candles like the inverted hammer and shooting star formations so the balance is looking better for the bears.
  • #360,730
  • Jan 25, 2014 1:43pm Jan 25, 2014 1:43pm
It's just so typical, isn't it, that PA is short by four pips of reaching my TP (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post7230611), and then does an about face so quickly that it leaves many a man's stomach tossed over the floor. But, well, you know, it may also have something to do with how those deemed too big to fail have now been told by Mario Draghi that they will not have comply so much with the Basel III recommendations - this news is several weeks old, I admit - and thus have at least a 12% capital ratio, but can stay with the 3% that has seen so much go wrong for so many. Oh, and that allowance for 3% is indefinite.

With such good news of the confirmation that the situation regarding toxic debt is one that will not go away as it is too big, and will likely never be resolved, I'm happy to report that I'm still in my slightly smaller debt, and am still in my short on EG. Dear me it's been weeks now, and I hope that the PA reversal seen on Friday when little old me was travelling back home, was the familiar end-of-month Cable/Euro fix that seems to occur... I often wonder if this is the BoE depositing into ECB for the EC payment.

Anyway, I'm hoping that the descending Guppy profile on the daily will contain this, whilst Cables takes a bounce back north from the drop on Friday. I'm thinking that the ascending Guppy profile on the daily Cable chart, and 61.8 FE shown, will act as some sort of support - well, more hoping, than thinking.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpmonthly.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpweekly.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 67 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #360,731
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:03pm Jan 25, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I was just kidding with him Nav, trying to calm it all down. Hope all is ok nAV.
I know..bro!..yeah im ok..just tired mainly working like a donkey..
hope u well?
  • #360,732
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:04pm Jan 25, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Faller
{quote} Happy Late New Year to you Navin2007! Hope all is well ~ Nav....so far this year I have been focusing on the USD. Although I was watching and traded natty gas a bit but did not catch the biggest part of the explosive move up! Anyway - From what I am observing, the USD (or the DX - dollar index) which indicates the USD strength against a basket of currencies has been showing very good strength - the USD is up big against CAD and the YEN, has gained on the swissy, has a nice IHS / double bottom on the SEK and while cable and the euro have...
  • #360,733
  • Jan 25, 2014 5:14pm Jan 25, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} hello, i don't know much about the other indicators you have in the chart, but about that MA, try check the 65exp
hi BBKing,

i can't set fixed Period for my MA indicator , it's a real adaptive MA , only range can be set (11-61 in my chart).

in accordance with volatility and other factors, it choose the best MA in the range to use at each new candle.

but i put a 65 expo on my chart and it seems interesting , i keep an eye on


Thanks
  • #360,734
  • Jan 25, 2014 9:05pm Jan 25, 2014 9:05pm
We had a very volatile week but it seems that the coming week could be even more volatile. Both US and UK GDP figures will be released
  • #360,735
  • Jan 26, 2014 12:52am Jan 26, 2014 12:52am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} experience {quote}
can you share your chart analysis?
  • #360,736
  • Jan 26, 2014 2:14am Jan 26, 2014 2:14am
just found out the world wants the dollar to crash this year, the dollar is in a major downtrend across all pairs there is no way im going short untill i get a confirm trend
  • #360,737
  • Jan 26, 2014 2:19am Jan 26, 2014 2:19am
Quoting PoundTrader
just found out the world wants the dollar to crash this year, the dollar is in a major downtrend across all pairs there is no way im going short untill i get a confirm trend

Not gonna happen.Too many things are attached to dollar like commodities.
Just don't overlook the fact major Banks agree certain price levels that are negotiated prior.This is to insure there is no one sided meltdown.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,738
  • Jan 26, 2014 2:26am Jan 26, 2014 2:26am
Quoting PoundTrader
just found out the world wants the dollar to crash this year, the dollar is in a major downtrend across all pairs there is no way im going short untill i get a confirm trend
I have the same information.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #360,739
  • Jan 26, 2014 2:30am Jan 26, 2014 2:30am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Not gonna happen.Too many things are attached to dollar like commodities. Just don't overlook the fact major Banks agree certain price levels that are negotiated prior.This is to insure there is no one sided meltdown. Regards
your kind of thinking is what they want the pubic to beleive before the crash,. REGARDS
  • #360,740
  • Jan 26, 2014 2:32am Jan 26, 2014 2:32am
if your already short then your view will be bias, im flat
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