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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #360,561
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:37am Jan 24, 2014 8:37am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} damn near 200 pips straight down in an uptrend - close and reload higher?

I moved SL to protect higher up shorts which are in profit if stopped out worse case scenario I will have less weight and more ammunition higher up.
Thanks guys
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,562
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:38am Jan 24, 2014 8:38am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} damn near 200 pips straight down in an uptrend - close and reload higher?

not possible. it will go down more. The fun just started.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,563
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:40am Jan 24, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I can really understand how you feel. I was in the same position yesterday, but got lucky since my shorts were put up higher. If you rather lose the 300 than being angry afterwards, I think you already decided to hold. Judging from the daily candle, it would not be a surprise if the selling continues. Maybe just see how things develop next week?

PA is still downward pressure so I will wait.Cable has been blown way up and we are still year or 2 away from interest rate hike.Its clear Carney is cautious.UK is holding highest debt to household and this is worrisome.Higher interest rate could stifle growth in matter of months and back to 7.8-8 unemployment
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,564
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:40am Jan 24, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I moved SL to protect higher up shorts which are in profit if stopped out worse case scenario I will have less weight and more ammunition higher up. Thanks guys
yes, close the part that has profit to reduce position size, and load it back later if it goes higher.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,565
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:43am Jan 24, 2014 8:43am
Quoting MrAmazing
{quote} Green circle = heavy accumulation for short. {image}
This is something I've often wondered about - how is the accumulation done? This price was quite high, and to push it higher there had to be quite heavy buying. The higher you push, the more difficult it gets (as more sellers appear). There are bears' stops but would they compensate for all that buying?

Karel
  • #360,566
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:44am Jan 24, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} PA is still downward pressure so I will wait.Cable has been blown way up and we are still year or 2 away from interest rate hike.Its clear Carney is cautious.UK is holding highest debt to household and this is worrisome.Higher interest rate could stifle growth in matter of months and back to 7.8-8 unemployment

it is critical that E/G bounced hard around 8170, proving 8170 as strong support. So cable will drop faster than euro. euro is at resistance now.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,567
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:44am Jan 24, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Davit
I have a dilemma Close all my shorts with -270 loss or let it ride and collect lot more as profit if bear continues to 6320 which is my original TP. Feb is just around the corner which could be good for USD My only reservation is Bull is just getting foothold at 1.65 for higher targets.I rather lose 300 then end of holding the bag tough decision
you will have to make it, i have a sell order 6475 to go to 6400 did you see my chart before
  • #360,568
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:48am Jan 24, 2014 8:48am
Quoting karelk
{quote} This is something I've often wondered about - how is the accumulation done? This price was quite high, and to push it higher there had to be quite heavy buying. The higher you push, the more difficult it gets (as more sellers appear). There are bears' stops but would they compensate for all that buying? Karel
big guys split their orders into small chunks and buy/sell slowly the market is not going to move. When they accumulated enough positions, they then push the market with large orders in a very short time, the market will move in large candles.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,569
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:51am Jan 24, 2014 8:51am
Attached Image
  • #360,570
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:53am Jan 24, 2014 8:53am
Quoting TauTrader
{image}
congratulations over 200% gain. I bet you were under all the bulls pressure yesterday. Now the bulls are all deaf or dead.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,571
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:53am Jan 24, 2014 8:53am
Quoting TauTrader
{image}
you bastard, getting nervous just following your (demo) GU-position
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #360,572
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:54am Jan 24, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Davit
{quote} PA is still downward pressure so I will wait.Cable has been blown way up and we are still year or 2 away from interest rate hike.Its clear Carney is cautious.UK is holding highest debt to household and this is worrisome.Higher interest rate could stifle growth in matter of months and back to 7.8-8 unemployment
A predicament.

The charts are technically bullish and the GBP fundamental outlook bearish.

There is one thing missing which is your analysis of USD fundamental outlook.
  • #360,573
  • Jan 24, 2014 8:55am Jan 24, 2014 8:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 71 KB
i went short on the break of the 61 at fib line the 200 sma will be what i watch out for break that and it should be 6400 and more, support of that 200 we are bullish i think
  • #360,574
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:00am Jan 24, 2014 9:00am
Quoting MrAmazing
{quote} Yellow area touched. Congratz to you who short this. Nice movement by MM, asian season bring the price higher with less volume to catch stop loss and make bear to surender so they close their short or to make them margin call. London session bring the price to support area to make retailers add their long position. And then, bye bye bull... Keep patience and discipline. Green circle = heavy accumulation for short. {image}

with the pink circle area included. they can move the market up and still accumulate shorts by doing buy one sell two. When they sell two they slowly sell so the market will not drop much. But when they buy one, they buy it fast to push the market up. When they acquired enough shorts, they will punch the market with fast sell to drop the market in a short time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 59 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,575
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:01am Jan 24, 2014 9:01am
Another thing to ponder over the weekend.

Markets have been pricing in that GBP will raise rates before USD. What would happen if this idea were to change?

What if BOE made noises that they don't see any rate change for the foreseeable future, that the 7% unemployment figure doesn't matter?

What if US stocks run out of steam?
  • #360,576
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:04am Jan 24, 2014 9:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I moved SL to protect higher up shorts which are in profit if stopped out worse case scenario I will have less weight and more ammunition higher up. Thanks guys

My suggestion is that if you aspire to make a living out of trading you need to think about actual lot size you would need to trade to make a living. Protecting equity is number 1 (you know that I not telling you to suck eggs). If your down 270 you must have been down a hell of a lot more than that prior. I would suggest close your shorts and take a hit. The last thing you want to do is reward yourself for getting into a bad position. If you take a loss you will remember it.

Theres no real level between here and 650. The way I see it will either go back up to that level or 350. It's your choice.
  • #360,577
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:04am Jan 24, 2014 9:04am
Quoting el_duende
Another thing to ponder over the weekend. Markets have been pricing in that GBP will raise rates before USD. What would happen if this idea were to change? What if BOE made noises that they don't see any rate change for the foreseeable future, that the 7% unemployment figure doesn't matter? What if US stocks run out of steam?
another thing to ponder Barlclays just published a forecast for a BOE rate hike in Q2 2015 previous was Q3 2016
  • #360,578
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 24, 2014 9:08am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting el_duende
{quote} A predicament. The charts are technically bullish and the GBP fundamental outlook bearish. There is one thing missing which is your analysis of USD fundamental outlook.

To me US fundamentals are on thin ice improvement sort of marginal.Unemployment still high and only positive news is Feds tempering and that's good but overall US still in slump economically.
Its sad to see how Feds really try hard to see any positive news to get out of printing money but at each time get smacked back to reality.
In truth as a patriotic citizen this country is falling apart and to distract folks we go to unnecessary wars with trillions of cost.This kind of thinking starting with Bush senior is disastrous....I am libertarian
Number one reason why empires fall is over extension,over estimation of their own powers- Caesar, Napoleon,Hitler all victims of this.
US has been acting like an empire since WW2 and reality is sinking that we can't charge anymore on credit card both government level and household.
Bleak view but reality is we are borrowing money (china)to pay bills on all levels.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,579
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:10am Jan 24, 2014 9:10am
Quoting el_duende
{quote} A predicament. The charts are technically bullish and the GBP fundamental outlook bearish. There is one thing missing which is your analysis of USD fundamental outlook.

what is US dollar outlook?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #360,580
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:11am Jan 24, 2014 9:11am
Quoting TauTrader
{image}
you're just crazy.. was worried about your trade explorer yesterday.. but -
you made it once again!
failure is not an option.
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