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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #360,001
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:43pm Jan 22, 2014 1:43pm
hope next month big fall i think . fomc coming next week. gbp stand resistance so expected .
last two day gbp news good . gbpusd go up 200 pips .
  • #360,002
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:46pm Jan 22, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting PoundTrader
{quote} Most likey she will break 1.6700 this week
If the euro go under 1.35 she go with him , they are married
  • #360,003
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:53pm Jan 22, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting Davit
Short G/CHF at 1.511 Price upper level of 2nd and 3rd deviation RSI 70 This is based on daily. {image}
what would be the SL n TP ?? thanks
  • #360,004
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:54pm Jan 22, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting -sonny-
{quote} If the euro go under 1.35 she go with him , they are married

There is more to this.UK biggest trading partner is Euro zone and having expensive currency does not help UK when Euro is depreciating.This is just plain economics factor in correlation and adds are major correction in order.
Putting this in context raising interest rate while Euro zone is in slump makes no economical sense when major currencies are actively trying to lower their value to be competitive.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,005
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:04pm Jan 22, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting rambo12
{quote} what would be the SL n TP ?? thanks

SL should be BE as soon as you can then let it ride down and progressively move stops lower to protect profits.Don't trail stop.Its not effective.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,006
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:11pm Jan 22, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There is more to this.UK biggest trading partner is Euro zone and having expensive currency does not help UK when Euro is depreciating.This is just plain economics factor in correlation and adds are major correction in order. Putting this in context raising interest rate while Euro zone is in slump makes no economical sense when major currencies are actively trying to lower their value to be competitive.
consider marshall lerner.

While there is a high marginal propensity to import, our summed elasticities aren't much greater than 1.

Our trade didn't improve when the GBP worsened, so why should, when the GBP rises, our trade worsen?

Econ 101!
  • #360,007
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm
BoE's McCafferty: sharp forex movements would be a concern
22 January 2014 20:51, updated 22 January 2014 21:27
NOTTINGHAM, England, Jan 22 (Reuters) – A sharp strengthening or weakening of the pound would always be a concern for policymakers, a top Bank of England official said on Wednesday.

"It is something of course that the MPC always looks at closely," Ian McCafferty, a member of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee, said after giving a speech.

"I think were we to see sharp movements in sterling in either direction, those are always cause for concern..." McCafferty said his contacts with businesses suggested the pound's current level was not a concern to them.

The pound hit its highest level against the U.S. dollar in almost three weeks and strengthened against other currencies on Wednesday after Britain's unemployment rate fell sharply to just above the Bank of England's 7 percent threshold level for considering an increase in interest rates. BoE policymakers have stressed that level is not a trigger for a rate hike.

(Reporting by Ana Nicolaci da Costa; editing by William Schomberg) (([email protected])(+ 44 207 542 8322)(Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

Keywords: BRITAIN BOE/MCCAFFERTY STERLING
  • #360,008
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} SL should be BE as soon as you can then let it ride down and progressively move stops lower to protect profits.Don't trail stop.Its not effective.
OK thanks ..
  • #360,009
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:15pm Jan 22, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} SL should be BE as soon as you can then let it ride down and progressively move stops lower to protect profits.Don't trail stop.Its not effective.
yep and the euro seems to have a lot of room to go down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurogbpweek.png Size: 135 KB
  • #360,010
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:15pm Jan 22, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} They must be busy doubling down....LOL Because, you know, they don't like to use stop loss....
I don't see what's funny about traders on the other side of the market than you. I was short today, and yes, without a SL. I don't have a problem as my positions are small.
But suppose they weren't and I had lost all my money, would that be funny too?

Just curious
Be water, my friend
  • #360,011
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:18pm Jan 22, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} consider marshall lerner. While there is a high marginal propensity to import, our summed elasticities aren't much greater than 1. Our trade didn't improve when the GBP worsened, so why should, when the GBP rises, our trade worsen? Econ 101!

Please compare Euro zone with UK which is more relevant since UK's biggest trading partner is Euro Zone.Our biggest trading partners are Canada,China,and Mexico UK number 5
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,012
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:20pm Jan 22, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Please compare Euro zone with UK which is more relevant since UK's biggest trading partner is Euro Zone.Our biggest trading partners are Canada,China,and Mexico UK number 5 {image}
unfortunately this is kinda irrelevant for considering EURGBP
  • #360,013
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:22pm Jan 22, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting Davit
Short G/CHF at 1.511 Price upper level of 2nd and 3rd deviation RSI 70 This is based on daily. {image}
What is your SL, TP? Because this trade with wide SL is too risky for me.
After a daily bullish marubuzo which just has broken some resistance, i dont know.
Look back what happened in the past such a kind of candles!
But it is good you called my attention up
If i will not forget i will take a long if there will be some retrace...
I think ~5217 is the target on the week, invalidation price ~5027, RR ~1,6.
Trend is your friend!

Good luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfmicrodaily.png Size: 32 KB
Anything is math!
  • #360,014
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:23pm Jan 22, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting Davit
Short G/CHF at 1.511 Price upper level of 2nd and 3rd deviation RSI 70 This is based on daily. {image}
Davit,
please excuse what will probably be a stupid question, I'm new to this.

If g/chf broke 1.5 and RSI14 is not too far oversold why couldn't we consider 1.5 support and a target of the july high of 1.54/5?

thanks
  • #360,015
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:24pm Jan 22, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} What is your SL, TP? Because this trade with wide SL is too risky for me. After a daily bullish marubuzo which just has broken some resistance, i dont know. Look back what happened in the past such a kind of candles! But it is good you called my attention up If i will not forget i will take a long if there will be some retrace... I think ~5217 is the target on the week, invalidation price ~5027, RR ~1,6. Trend is your friend! Good luck! {image}
Sorry, i have just read back. Now i see

Good luck!
Anything is math!
  • #360,016
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:30pm Jan 22, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting lamp
{quote} Davit, please excuse what will probably be a stupid question, I'm new to this. If g/chf broke 1.5 and RSI14 is not too far oversold why couldn't we consider 1.5 support and a target of the july high of 1.54/5? thanks
I think we should!
Anything is math!
  • #360,017
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:30pm Jan 22, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} unfortunately this is kinda irrelevant for considering EURGBP

I was not posting about EG
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,018
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:34pm Jan 22, 2014 2:34pm
Well if someone thinks having a stop loss is funny, something's gotten over their head.

I, for one, don't think, they're funny.

Stop losses help limit losses and avoid total account depletion.

And if you think they're funny, then go ahead and trade without a stop loss.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #360,019
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:34pm Jan 22, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting lamp
{quote} Davit, please excuse what will probably be a stupid question, I'm new to this. If g/chf broke 1.5 and RSI14 is not too far oversold why couldn't we consider 1.5 support and a target of the july high of 1.54/5? thanks

I just posted a trade my friend based on my system..I have no idea what price can do in the future but based on BB deviations and RSI 8 I think it has sufficient edge for short.You can be 60% wrong and still make money if you keep your losses short and run your winners.
notice the patterns
That's all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.daily.png Size: 45 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #360,020
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:38pm Jan 22, 2014 2:38pm
I am preparing for breakout, buy stop placed above last high.
Last live long order will be closed under ~6560.
I think i will not sleep tonight too much

Good luck you all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdxm15.png Size: 57 KB
Anything is math!
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