Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE) | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Made a 100% Winrate EA 26 replies

what can we do with 90% winrate? 130 replies

MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR 63 replies

Does anyone use a statistical edge 0 replies

How do you gain, and measure, your trading system's statistical edge? 29 replies

Attachments: Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)
Exit Attachments

Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #81
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:40pm Jan 21, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hey Magix, looks like my system will make more return /day than yours in its entire career

Geez Prox,

What happened to 10%/day?

Maybe it will make the other 18% tomorrow?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: prox.png Size: 16 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #82
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:53pm Jan 21, 2014 3:53pm
what happens if the price is constantly moving over the 30 MA .. does it not burn the account with spreads and false moves ?
  • #83
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:59pm Jan 21, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Geez Prox, What happened to 10%/day? Maybe it will make the other 18% tomorrow? {image}

Magix, your a naughty boy lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #84
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:32pm Jan 21, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting Avy25
what happens if the price is constantly moving over the 30 MA .. does it not burn the account with spreads and false moves ?
No because you don't open a new trade until the take profit on the previous trade is hit. So you just take a steady stream of profits. In theory...
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #85
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:43pm Jan 21, 2014 5:43pm
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]No because you don't open a new trade until the take profit on the previous trade is hit. So you just take a steady stream of profits. In theory...[/highlight]

[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]thankyou for clarifying [/highlight]
  • #86
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:48pm Jan 21, 2014 7:48pm
i just try this system for scalping using M1 to entry.....but need to look at M5 , M15, M30 and H1 for trending. so far every trade that i take will hit my TP. thanks for a very profitable system.............
  • #87
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:54pm Jan 21, 2014 7:54pm
i just using 1% of my total balance plus 1 extra bullet to make sure i will hit TP S & R. Maximum drag down is 5 % of my total capital............
  • #88
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:35pm Jan 21, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} You've said several times that 1:1 leverage is desirable so that's what I used. That means to open a 0.01 position you would need £1000 in your account. I coded it to trade exactly per your instructions in the last update and I tested it visually so I know it works fine.
Hmm maybe we should keep a bit of leverage then.We need 1:10 to open a 0.01 with 100€ but, this way the margin requirement would be huge which would increase our chance of a margin call because we'd have less free margin.

So because anyway we use tiny lot sizes to not get MC'd, we could aswell use larger leverage.I`m thinking between 1:100, and 1:200, besides the demo account has 1:100 leverage anyway.

Quoting handy148
Proximus - are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?
Not really, maybe i should redesign the system, for other pairs, to atleast get some swap bonus

Quoting ChicagoRob
What's the current TP for the latest template? It was 10 pips, originally, and then I think it was changed to 3.5 pips. Rob
Its called adaptation to the market.While the system is in forward test, i`m still optimizing it for better outcomes, so the current best outcome is reached with 3.5 pips.

Anyway thanks for the suggestions guys, i will think about them , and release a new version of the system.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #89
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:31pm Jan 21, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote}i`m still optimizing it for better outcomes, so the current best outcome is reached with 3.5 pips.
You are not finding better future outcomes ... but best past outcomes. Optimizing is a double-edged sword ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #90
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:38pm Jan 21, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} You are not finding better future outcomes ... but best past outcomes. Optimizing is a double-edged sword ...
I have 20 years of tick based historical data, 99.9999% accurate candlestick modelation.The fact that i run the system on 20 years of data gives me a very clear vision about the system.Its is highly unlikely that the market will change so drastically in the next few years, relative to the past 20 years.

Markets usually have many cycles, and i`m very certain that it wont change drastically in the next 20-30 years, the last major change in the markets was the electronic trading which happened 40 years ago,the NASDAQ, i think we are safe for the next 30 years.The 2008 crisis was only a minor change if you think about it, not much changed in the price flow
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #91
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:41pm Jan 21, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I have 20 years of tick based historical data, 99.9999% accurate candlestick modelation.The fact that i run the system on 20 years of data gives me a very clear vision about the system.Its is highly unlikely that the market will change so drastically in the next few years, relative to the past 20 years.
I agree ... but there's still no guarantee ...

Never say never
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #92
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:45pm Jan 21, 2014 9:45pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} I agree ... but there's still no guarantee ... Never say never
Nothing is certain in life.

This system itself is no certain at all.Its a gambling system, and what we do is , we increase the odds to the maximum thats possible to achieve.

Then only luck will separate the winners from the losers.But still the odds here will be higher than on the lottery or casinos
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #93
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:06pm Jan 21, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Nothing is certain in life. This system itself is no certain at all.Its a gambling system, and what we do is , we increase the odds to the maximum thats possible to achieve. Then only luck will separate the winners from the losers.But still the odds here will be higher than on the lottery or casinos
Exactly.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #94
  • Edited 12:26am Jan 22, 2014 12:05am | Edited 12:26am
Our new pair will be the AUD/USD, after careful considerations, i have found out that its the best pair for this system.

The new strategy will be to enter only long on AUD/USD, since our probability wont be affected ,50% chance of getting it right (~49% if we count in the spread), so that would result in a small average loss which would slowly drain our account to 0.

But ofcourse we use a 99.9999999% winrate strategy, but i`m just saying that it would work even with a 49-49 strategy (1% is always lost because of spread & slippage)

BUT, and this will change a losing system into a winning one.Everyone knows that the RBA gives bigger interest rate than the FED, so we can do carry trades.And since we only enter in long trades, we get 4.5 swap points on every long position at the AUD/USD (or atleast my broker gives that many points, it may differ on different brokers).

Rollover on every midnight= (Swap rate/10,000) × Position × Number of days

So for our position 4.5 /10000 * (1000 LOT UNIT) * DAYS

You get that on every midnight if the position is still open, so

Quoting handy148
are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?

After a month we get on each day (left column days, right column swap bonus in AUD):

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx SWAP BONUS AFTER 30 DAYS ON AUDUSD LONG.xlsx   9 KB | 405 downloads


So after 30 days we get 209.25 AUD which is 136.24 € , given that we trade 0.01 lot size (1000 units ) only and start with 100€ account, thats a 136% growth in either way And thats the worst case scenario if we have a bad trade that we must hold for months.

Of course the optimal situation is that we make 5-6% return/day depending on the markets ranging-ness.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmonthly.png Size: 38 KB


Besides the AUD/USD was mostly in uptrend in the last 20 years, hmm maybe we even have an edge on long trades
And the spread is still the best, from the pairs which can be carry traded, 13-14 pipette on average, so its worth a try

What do you think guys?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #95
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:45am Jan 22, 2014 12:45am
Quoting Proximus
Our new pair will be the AUD/USD, after careful considerations, i have found out that its the best pair for this system. The new strategy will be to enter only long on AUD/USD, since our probability wont be affected ,50% chance of getting it right (~49% if we count in the spread), so that would result in a small average loss which would slowly drain our account to 0. But ofcourse we use a 99.9999999% winrate strategy, but i`m just saying that it would work even with a 49-49 strategy (1% is always lost because of spread & slippage) BUT, and this...
I think you should consider volatility for what you are trying to do. Perhaps you want to look at the logic of if X trades does not come back in Y days, start trading Z pair. It's the only way you don't shut yourself down for extended periods if you get caught in a trade. Find a way to trade around a bad position. Lots of ways to do it depending on your risk and what you like to do.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #96
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:50am Jan 22, 2014 12:50am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think you should consider volatility for what you are trying to do. Perhaps you want to look at the logic of if X trades does not come back in Y days, start trading Z pair. It's the only way you don't shut yourself down for extended periods if you get caught in a trade. Find a way to trade around a bad position. Lots of ways to do it depending on your risk and what you like to do.
I dont think thats a wise idea because our capital is locked in to that long trade.If we were to add more positions, and they would go against us aswell, that would double the chance for a margin call.

Adding more positions or averaging is not very wise ,i`ve ran many simulations, and it all turned out even if i hedge the position it would still give us a MC.

Retail traders just dont have the capital necessary for hedging effectively, and this system will try to minimize that risk.You dont want to risk a 50.000$ account on this strategy, because its a gambling anyway.

Only start with a very small account you can easily afford to lose, and from there we must maximize our gains.With 5-6% / day its easy to reach 1 million $ in a year even with 100$ start

And the losses are reduced to the bare minimum.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #97
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:53am Jan 22, 2014 12:53am
Quoting Proximus
Hmm maybe we should keep a bit of leverage then.We need 1:10 to open a 0.01 with 100€ but, this way the margin requirement would be huge which would increase our chance of a margin call because we'd have less free margin. So because anyway we use tiny lot sizes to not get MC'd, we could aswell use larger leverage.I`m thinking between 1:100, and 1:200, besides the demo account has 1:100 leverage anyway.
You're better off setting your leverage high but only using 0.01 per 100 euros in your account. That way your margin requirement is low but you're not actually using excessive leverage.

Long only on audusd, really?!

It's interesting that Sony hasn't put a euro symbol on their Vaio on British keyboards yet. Do they know something we don't? ;-)
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #98
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:59am Jan 22, 2014 12:59am
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} You're better off setting your leverage high but only using 0.01 per 100 euros in your account. That way your margin requirement is low but you're not actually using excessive leverage. Long only on audusd, really?! It's interesting that Sony hasn't put a euro symbol on their Vaio on British keyboards yet. Do they know something we don't? ;-)
Yes but we wont use 0.01 forever, it will increment anyway, with 0.5 account risk it will be a slow, but steady incrementation.

Besides the broker has the right to modify the leverage at higher capitals, so its not very realistic to run a 1m$ demo account with 1:400 leverage or so.Nobody would give you that much, plus with higher capital, the lot will increase aswell so that will increase our risk of MC.

So we should find a balance between this 2 problems: higher leverage to not pay so much margin requirement, but lower enough to lower our chances of MC when the lot will be incremented.

Yes we will enter only long on AUD/USD when our indicator will tell us to, preferably after retracements.I will write the entire strategy detailed, but i`m still backtesting some configurations, it takes me hours to run a backtest (over 70 GB tick data i have only on AUD/USD)
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #99
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:01am Jan 22, 2014 1:01am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I dont think thats a wise idea because our capital is locked in to that long trade.If we were to add more positions, and they would go against us aswell, that would double the chance for a margin call. Adding more positions or averaging is not very wise ,i`ve ran many simulations, and it all turned out even if i hedge the position it would still give us a MC. Retail traders just dont have the capital necessary for hedging effectively, and this system will try to minimize that risk.You dont want to risk a 50.000$ account on this strategy,...
What is your plan if you buy the monthly high or sell the monthly low? Those are points in the chart where price is not going to come back. Happens every month.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #100
  • Jan 22, 2014 1:04am Jan 22, 2014 1:04am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} What is your plan if you buy the monthly high or sell the monthly low? Those are points in the chart where price is not going to come back. Happens every month.
No we will use the same strategy, small trades with 40-50 pipette TP, but only trade in the LONG direction, and when the price goes agains us, we still get the swaps, because we were LONG.

Its a win-win situation, only the MARGIN CALL can f*k us up

Wait a little bit, i will soon write down the entire system detailed, but let me finish the backtests first.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
0 traders viewing now