• Home
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • User/Email: Password:
  • 2:15pm
Menu
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 2:15pm
Sister Sites
  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR 63 replies

Made a 100% Winrate EA 25 replies

what can we do with 90% winrate? 125 replies

Does anyone use a statistical edge 0 replies

How do you gain, and measure, your trading system's statistical edge? 29 replies

  • Trading Systems
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
  • 64
Attachments: Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)
Exit Attachments

Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • Last Post
  •  
  • 1 23Page 456 19
  • 1 3Page 45 19
  •  
  • Post #61
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:38am Jan 21, 2014 5:38am
  •  billytt
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Member | 24,847 Posts
Quoting Proximus
Disliked
{quote} What do you mean by similar ? I use the MA as a tool to find the clusters of price as price will tend to fluctuate around the MA.
Ignored
oh, I do that in my head and just have a 20 ema on chart,, perhaps it isn't similar but it is to me, lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
 
 
  • Post #62
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:42am Jan 21, 2014 5:42am
  •  Proximus
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
Quoting dannyrose
Disliked
Here's my version of the ea. It doesn't wait for a candle to close, according to the instructions a cross is enough. I ran it on eurusd and it wins about 9 trades but then puts a sell on at 1.32616 on 13th September and it doesn't come back. That's 4 months now, would you want to wait that long?! Maybe a more ranging pair like eurchf would be better. Or how about usdhkd? You'd have to stop it from taking trades near the range tops but that could be coded into it. Also to use 1:1 leverage then you need to trade 0.01 per every £1000 in your account...
Ignored
How does the leverage affect this.We use a 0.5 - 1% lot size, so basically the lot requirements are small.I`m using a 1:100 leverage to pay less margin requirement, because the more cash remains in the account the less chance of a margin call.

I`m not sure how your EA works, but i will release mine too soon.I think you made a few mistakes here and there.For me it will always bounce back, and the longest wait time is about 1 month now.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
 
 
  • Post #63
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:46am Jan 21, 2014 5:46am
  •  billytt
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Member | 24,847 Posts
Bud, I will keep my mouth shut or I will probably confuse you.
I have spent years watching charts and running tests, anyway ,,,with this trade I got on, it is the original trade I was asked to do regarding gbp/jpn and the outside bars, I entered long after the breach of outside bar AND the 20 ema was breached AND PC crash, lets see what happens, IT might just end up a long day for me to trade it back into profit, Be good and again I shall be quiet
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
 
 
  • Post #64
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:47am Jan 21, 2014 5:47am
  •  teofil00
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 70 Posts
How many good trades does it take to double the account? Or how long? (with 100 euros)

It could be good given you can double your balance and then pull out.
 
 
  • Post #65
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:48am Jan 21, 2014 5:48am
  •  Proximus
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
Quoting billytt
Disliked
Bud, I will keep my mouth shut or I will probably confuse you. I have spent years watching charts and running tests, anyway ,,,with this trade I got on, it is the original trade I was asked to do regarding gbp/jpn and the outside bars, I entered long after the breach of outside bar AND the 20 ema was breached AND PC crash, lets see what happens, IT might just end up a long day for me to trade it back into profit, Be good and again I shall be quiet
Ignored
Ok then, btw finally i`ve recovered from that nasty mistake of mine

I`m now backtesting the system for better configurations.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
 
 
  • Post #66
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:57am Jan 21, 2014 5:57am
  •  billytt
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Member | 24,847 Posts
Quoting Proximus
Disliked
{quote} Ok then, btw finally i`ve recovered from that nasty mistake of mine I`m now backtesting the system for better configurations.
Ignored
good,,, just take care that you do not fit the history in the backtest
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
 
 
  • Post #67
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:58am Jan 21, 2014 5:58am
  •  Proximus
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
Quoting teofil00
Disliked
How many good trades does it take to double the account? Or how long? (with 100 euros) It could be good given you can double your balance and then pull out.
Ignored
With my modified settings, i`ve set the TP to 35 pipettes, so including spread, then each winner trade gives us around 0.2-0.3 % return.

So with 100 euro and 0.01 lot start, assuming my spread, it would give 0.26 cent/trade,for now, after the balance grows, the lot size will increment aswell.

I dont know yet when its good time to pull out, but i`m still backtesting the system for better configurations.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
 
 
  • Post #68
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:59am Jan 21, 2014 5:59am
  •  billytt
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Member | 24,847 Posts
oil is looking good lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
 
 
  • Post #69
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:11am Jan 21, 2014 7:11am
  •  Ezzy
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Learning | 1,050 Posts
Hi Proximus, thanks for the thread and the idea / system you are sharing.

I started trying your system on demo.....6 from 6 winners, maximum drawdown..about 12 pips with one of the trades. Good so far, but worried about SL. Will continue to forward test, however starting to think of some ideas surrounding hard stops to put in place if I start trading it live.

Just some thoughts.

Once again, thanks for the system, I'll continue to contribute with my findings.

Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
 
 
  • Post #70
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:35am Jan 21, 2014 7:35am
  •  Pharm0r
  • Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
subbed. This might be a fun one to add to my toolbox Good work!
 
 
  • Post #71
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:38am Jan 21, 2014 7:38am
  •  handy148
  • Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Member | 2,527 Posts
Proximus - are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?
 
 
  • Post #72
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:59am Jan 21, 2014 7:59am
  •  dannyrose
  • | Additional Username | Joined Oct 2013 | 52 Posts
Quoting handy148
Disliked
Proximus - are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?
Ignored
That's a good point.
Shampoo for my real friends
 
 
  • Post #73
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:03am Jan 21, 2014 8:03am
  •  dannyrose
  • | Additional Username | Joined Oct 2013 | 52 Posts
Quoting Proximus
Disliked
{quote} How does the leverage affect this.We use a 0.5 - 1% lot size, so basically the lot requirements are small.I`m using a 1:100 leverage to pay less margin requirement, because the more cash remains in the account the less chance of a margin call. I`m not sure how your EA works, but i will release mine too soon.I think you made a few mistakes here and there.For me it will always bounce back, and the longest wait time is about 1 month now.
Ignored
You've said several times that 1:1 leverage is desirable so that's what I used. That means to open a 0.01 position you would need £1000 in your account.

I coded it to trade exactly per your instructions in the last update and I tested it visually so I know it works fine.
Shampoo for my real friends
 
 
  • Post #74
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:57am Jan 21, 2014 9:57am
  •  Magix
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,826 Posts
Quoting Proximus
Disliked
{quote} Hey Magix, looks like my system will make more return /day than yours in its entire career
Ignored

What can I say...After all, you have all the information that can be provided in less than 24hours of actual live testing and back-tests to support your theory.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
 
 
  • Post #75
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:00am Jan 21, 2014 11:00am
  •  promisedea
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Nov 2013 | 20 Posts
Quoting Magix
Disliked
{quote} What can I say...After all, you have all the information that can be provided in less than 24hours of actual live testing and back-tests to support your theory.
Ignored
Smoke is coming??
 
 
  • Post #76
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:42am Jan 21, 2014 11:42am
  •  shiva
  • Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Doing It In Dubai | 2,457 Posts
Quoting Magix
Disliked
{quote} Thus the reason I made mention of that. Unless Shiva was referring to using a 30 BB...but even at this, I don't know what the point is. CCI 30 cross zero, Cross Middle Band of BB 30, and Price close against SMA 30 are 3 ways of saying the exact same thing.
Ignored

Not sure why I said that, but I remember the first post mentioning 120 SMA, I tend to type a lot after a drink or so lol
 
 
  • Post #77
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:47am Jan 21, 2014 11:47am
  •  Magix
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Half in the Bag | 17,826 Posts
Quoting shiva
Disliked
{quote} Not sure why I said that, but I remember the first post mentioning 120 SMA, I tend to type a lot after a drink or so lol
Ignored
I don't think you are exclusive in this...

But, FWIW, I feel like I'm in better company now.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
 
 
  • Post #78
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:50am Jan 21, 2014 11:50am
  •  shiva
  • Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Doing It In Dubai | 2,457 Posts
Quoting Magix
Disliked
{quote} I don't think you are exclusive in this... But, FWIW, I feel like I'm in better company now.
Ignored

Gods' own drink
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #79
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2014 12:02pm Jan 21, 2014 12:02pm
  •  ForexFury
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
Valiant effort Proximus!

I like how you call your system a gambling system. That word is taboo amongst most experts here at FF and elsewhere, due to what I surmise as it belittling their efforts at turning a profit in Forex. They very much prefer the word "investing" even though Forex is rarely considered an investing platform at the retail level. By acknowledging that you are gambling, albeit with sound mathematical reasoning, and willing to lose your entire account, you are open to a way of thinking not available to "investors."

One thing to note is the eventual "trade of no return." I've seen plenty of backtests on systems like this. Your profit will grow and grow and grow until one day a trade takes months and months to return home. But then again you've already acknowledged this. Systems like this will return profit but will be inconsistent year after year.

It may be obvious but I've noticed that the longer you hold out, the more likely you will run into a trade that doesn't return. You're a smart guy Proximus. I'm sure you can devise a strategy that allows you to cut out these rouge trades while still remaining solvent.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
 
 
  • Post #80
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:59pm Jan 21, 2014 1:11pm | Edited at 1:59pm
  •  ChicagoRob
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Member | 953 Posts
What's the current TP for the latest template? It was 10 pips, originally, and then I think it was changed to 3.5 pips.

Rob
 
 
  • Trading Systems
  • /
  • Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)
  • Reply to Thread
    • 1 23Page 456 19
    • 1 3Page 45 19
0 traders viewing now
  • More
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About FF
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Media Kit
  • Blog
  • Contact
FF Products
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Trade Explorer
FF Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow FF
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

FF Sister Sites:

  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Forex Factory® is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2022