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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #61
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:38am Jan 21, 2014 4:38am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} What do you mean by similar ? I use the MA as a tool to find the clusters of price as price will tend to fluctuate around the MA.
oh, I do that in my head and just have a 20 ema on chart,, perhaps it isn't similar but it is to me, lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #62
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:42am Jan 21, 2014 4:42am
Quoting dannyrose
Here's my version of the ea. It doesn't wait for a candle to close, according to the instructions a cross is enough. I ran it on eurusd and it wins about 9 trades but then puts a sell on at 1.32616 on 13th September and it doesn't come back. That's 4 months now, would you want to wait that long?! Maybe a more ranging pair like eurchf would be better. Or how about usdhkd? You'd have to stop it from taking trades near the range tops but that could be coded into it. Also to use 1:1 leverage then you need to trade 0.01 per every £1000 in your account...
How does the leverage affect this.We use a 0.5 - 1% lot size, so basically the lot requirements are small.I`m using a 1:100 leverage to pay less margin requirement, because the more cash remains in the account the less chance of a margin call.

I`m not sure how your EA works, but i will release mine too soon.I think you made a few mistakes here and there.For me it will always bounce back, and the longest wait time is about 1 month now.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #63
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:46am Jan 21, 2014 4:46am
Bud, I will keep my mouth shut or I will probably confuse you.
I have spent years watching charts and running tests, anyway ,,,with this trade I got on, it is the original trade I was asked to do regarding gbp/jpn and the outside bars, I entered long after the breach of outside bar AND the 20 ema was breached AND PC crash, lets see what happens, IT might just end up a long day for me to trade it back into profit, Be good and again I shall be quiet
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #64
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:47am Jan 21, 2014 4:47am
How many good trades does it take to double the account? Or how long? (with 100 euros)

It could be good given you can double your balance and then pull out.
  • #65
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:48am Jan 21, 2014 4:48am
Quoting billytt
Bud, I will keep my mouth shut or I will probably confuse you. I have spent years watching charts and running tests, anyway ,,,with this trade I got on, it is the original trade I was asked to do regarding gbp/jpn and the outside bars, I entered long after the breach of outside bar AND the 20 ema was breached AND PC crash, lets see what happens, IT might just end up a long day for me to trade it back into profit, Be good and again I shall be quiet
Ok then, btw finally i`ve recovered from that nasty mistake of mine

I`m now backtesting the system for better configurations.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #66
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:57am Jan 21, 2014 4:57am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok then, btw finally i`ve recovered from that nasty mistake of mine I`m now backtesting the system for better configurations.
good,,, just take care that you do not fit the history in the backtest
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #67
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:58am Jan 21, 2014 4:58am
Quoting teofil00
How many good trades does it take to double the account? Or how long? (with 100 euros) It could be good given you can double your balance and then pull out.
With my modified settings, i`ve set the TP to 35 pipettes, so including spread, then each winner trade gives us around 0.2-0.3 % return.

So with 100 euro and 0.01 lot start, assuming my spread, it would give 0.26 cent/trade,for now, after the balance grows, the lot size will increment aswell.

I dont know yet when its good time to pull out, but i`m still backtesting the system for better configurations.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #68
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:59am Jan 21, 2014 4:59am
oil is looking good lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #69
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:11am Jan 21, 2014 6:11am
Hi Proximus, thanks for the thread and the idea / system you are sharing.

I started trying your system on demo.....6 from 6 winners, maximum drawdown..about 12 pips with one of the trades. Good so far, but worried about SL. Will continue to forward test, however starting to think of some ideas surrounding hard stops to put in place if I start trading it live.

Just some thoughts.

Once again, thanks for the system, I'll continue to contribute with my findings.

Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #70
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:35am Jan 21, 2014 6:35am
subbed. This might be a fun one to add to my toolbox Good work!
  • #71
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:38am Jan 21, 2014 6:38am
Proximus - are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?
  • #72
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:59am Jan 21, 2014 6:59am
Quoting handy148
Proximus - are you factoring in swap given that some trades could be held for weeks/months even?
That's a good point.
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #73
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:03am Jan 21, 2014 7:03am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} How does the leverage affect this.We use a 0.5 - 1% lot size, so basically the lot requirements are small.I`m using a 1:100 leverage to pay less margin requirement, because the more cash remains in the account the less chance of a margin call. I`m not sure how your EA works, but i will release mine too soon.I think you made a few mistakes here and there.For me it will always bounce back, and the longest wait time is about 1 month now.
You've said several times that 1:1 leverage is desirable so that's what I used. That means to open a 0.01 position you would need £1000 in your account.

I coded it to trade exactly per your instructions in the last update and I tested it visually so I know it works fine.
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #74
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:57am Jan 21, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hey Magix, looks like my system will make more return /day than yours in its entire career

What can I say...After all, you have all the information that can be provided in less than 24hours of actual live testing and back-tests to support your theory.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #75
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:00am Jan 21, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Magix
{quote} What can I say...After all, you have all the information that can be provided in less than 24hours of actual live testing and back-tests to support your theory.
Smoke is coming??
  • #76
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:42am Jan 21, 2014 10:42am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Thus the reason I made mention of that. Unless Shiva was referring to using a 30 BB...but even at this, I don't know what the point is. CCI 30 cross zero, Cross Middle Band of BB 30, and Price close against SMA 30 are 3 ways of saying the exact same thing.

Not sure why I said that, but I remember the first post mentioning 120 SMA, I tend to type a lot after a drink or so lol
  • #77
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:47am Jan 21, 2014 10:47am
Quoting shiva
{quote} Not sure why I said that, but I remember the first post mentioning 120 SMA, I tend to type a lot after a drink or so lol
I don't think you are exclusive in this...

But, FWIW, I feel like I'm in better company now.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #78
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:50am Jan 21, 2014 10:50am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I don't think you are exclusive in this... But, FWIW, I feel like I'm in better company now.

Gods' own drink
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  • #79
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:02am Jan 21, 2014 11:02am
Valiant effort Proximus!

I like how you call your system a gambling system. That word is taboo amongst most experts here at FF and elsewhere, due to what I surmise as it belittling their efforts at turning a profit in Forex. They very much prefer the word "investing" even though Forex is rarely considered an investing platform at the retail level. By acknowledging that you are gambling, albeit with sound mathematical reasoning, and willing to lose your entire account, you are open to a way of thinking not available to "investors."

One thing to note is the eventual "trade of no return." I've seen plenty of backtests on systems like this. Your profit will grow and grow and grow until one day a trade takes months and months to return home. But then again you've already acknowledged this. Systems like this will return profit but will be inconsistent year after year.

It may be obvious but I've noticed that the longer you hold out, the more likely you will run into a trade that doesn't return. You're a smart guy Proximus. I'm sure you can devise a strategy that allows you to cut out these rouge trades while still remaining solvent.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #80
  • Edited 12:59pm Jan 21, 2014 12:11pm | Edited 12:59pm
What's the current TP for the latest template? It was 10 pips, originally, and then I think it was changed to 3.5 pips.

Rob
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