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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #359,441
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:31pm Jan 20, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting mszaman
Sorry to interrupt but on coming Wednesday there are possibilities to rise at least 100 pips due to unemployment news of UK. Do not you think of that?
The fact this may happen annoys the hell out of me. Unemployment is huge in the UK at the moment and isn't getting better from what i see.
  • #359,442
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:35pm Jan 20, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I trade on fundamentals.My analyses is GU will see 1.60 before 1.67 I don't think 300pips is noise by any measure.
You told 2 attractive price
It would be good both by sudden move
Anything is math!
  • #359,443
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:36pm Jan 20, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I trade on fundamentals.My analyses is GU will see 1.60 before 1.67 I don't think 300pips is noise by any measure.
Quoting okanemici
{quote} This is my humble opinion about gbpusd {image}
Trade is developing close to my drawing . It just needs max an other day to break below 1.64.
  • #359,444
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:37pm Jan 20, 2014 2:37pm
But as economy is getting better and last time it showed improvement. So is it not going to be positive again or it will decline?
  • #359,445
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:38pm Jan 20, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I trade on fundamentals.My analyses is GU will see 1.60 before 1.67 I don't think 300pips is noise by any measure.
But the fundamental figures in the past weeks point to an improving economy,

they ranged from good to exceeding the consensus.

One can surely not dismiss the latest improvements.

Something in your fundamental analysis must be so overwhelming that you're prepared to dismiss 250 pip rise in favor of 450 pip fall.

I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #359,446
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:38pm Jan 20, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Griffo
{quote} The fact this may happen annoys the hell out of me. Unemployment is huge in the UK at the moment and isn't getting better from what i see.

The unemployment rate, in places like the USA and the UK has been measured pretty consistently over the last several decades. People question whether that measure works or not, but there it is.

For example, here in the USA, people are saying we have very low participation rate, which makes the unemployment rate look better. One reason they say is that young people aren't employed and they just aren't looking for work. They are happy with their food stamps, living with mom and dad, etc. The other argument is that we've had an unprecedented number of baby boom generation people retiring and leaving the work force.

Which is right? I don't know. I think the baby boom argument is a bit convenient, but at the same time, when I drive to work in the mornings, there is a lot of traffic.

Regardless, people believe the standard way of measurement. Like it or not. So if the unemployment rate goes down by the age old method of measurement, expect the currency to strengthen. If it goes up, expect it to weaken.
  • #359,447
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:46pm Jan 20, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} But the fundamental figures in the past weeks point to an improving economy, they ranged from good to exceeding the consensus. One can surely not dismiss the latest improvements. Something in your fundamental analysis must be so overwhelming that you're prepared to dismiss 250 pip rise in favor of 450 fall. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

It is my understanding that in global market economy no economy can singularly improve dramatically while its trading partners are in slump.
Biggest UK trading partner is Euro zone which is in a slump and new crises with Greece is in near future since fundamentally Greek crises has not been resolved.
China,Japan,US are in contraction which does not project growth for UK.
Interesting factor is Euro is trading at 1.35 range and Cable at 1.64.Cable is at least 400pips out of sink.Cable at 1.64 should have Euro at 1.38-1.40.The clue is right there.

We will see continued improvement of US economy coming months.This is my bias.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #359,448
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:05pm Jan 20, 2014 3:05pm
And let's not forget the DOW which is attracting money like flies to sh!t as people find a place to escape and profit from ballooning Govt debts and continued ultra low interest rates/easing policy respectively.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #359,449
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:07pm Jan 20, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} It is my understanding that in global market economy no economy can singularly improve dramatically while its trading partners are in slump. Biggest UK trading partner is Euro zone which is in a slump and new crises with Greece is in near future since fundamentally Greek crises has not been resolved. China,Japan,US are in contraction which does not project growth for UK. Interesting factor is Euro is trading at 1.35 range and Cable at 1.64.Cable is at least 400pips out of sink.Cable at 1.64 should have Euro at 1.38-1.40.The clue is right...
I would fully concur with your contention if we were to select the purchase of respective countries' company stocks,

but since we're dealing with currencies here -- they being relative values --

accurately reflect the economic disparity you highlighted

i.e.

as this disparate economic reality continues to expand , the disparity in exchange rates will continue to expand in lockstep.


Regards to you as well
& Happy Trading.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #359,450
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:07pm Jan 20, 2014 3:07pm
We al know that US economy is recovering but most are thinking that UK economy is going to exceed Germany by 2030. I know US economy is the largest but they already in deep s---t and do not know how much they are going to recover.
  • #359,451
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:09pm Jan 20, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} It is my understanding that in global market economy no economy can singularly improve dramatically while its trading partners are in slump. Biggest UK trading partner is Euro zone which is in a slump and new crises with Greece is in near future since fundamentally Greek crises has not been resolved. China,Japan,US are in contraction which does not project growth for UK. Interesting factor is Euro is trading at 1.35 range and Cable at 1.64.Cable is at least 400pips out of sink.Cable at 1.64 should have Euro at 1.38-1.40.The clue is right...
I see a perfect 1.6380 sell stop eurnzd tonite !
  • #359,452
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:09pm Jan 20, 2014 3:09pm
I still don't understand at all the fixation on the idea the UK economy has to be our shining everyone else for this pair to rise.
Was the UK really doing that spectacularly well during the multi year bull run on this pair prior to the crisis?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #359,453
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:15pm Jan 20, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} I would fully concur with your contention if we were to select the purchase of respective countries' company stocks, but since we're dealing with currencies here -- they being relative values -- accurately reflect the economic disparity you highlighted i.e. as this disparate economic reality continues to expand , the disparity in exchange rates will continue to expand in lockstep. Regards to you as well & Happy Trading.

It would be interesting how tonight London reacts.If they sell/buy heavy I suspect they may have leaked info on Weds news.If continues to range in 20-30 pips then all guns are in fire ready mode and waiting.Recent scandals in London suggest lot of insight trading going on.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #359,454
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:19pm Jan 20, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I still don't understand at all the fixation on the idea the UK economy has to be our shining everyone else for this pair to rise. Was the UK really doing that spectacularly well during the multi year bull run on this pair prior to the crisis?
In one word: yes .

They had higher interest rates,

and that's the foremost consideration in the FX market.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #359,455
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:23pm Jan 20, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I still don't understand at all the fixation on the idea the UK economy has to be our shining everyone else for this pair to rise. Was the UK really doing that spectacularly well during the multi year bull run on this pair prior to the crisis?

It is my understanding that British pound prior 2008 was extremely over appreciated same way Aussie dollar was...
Housing crises of 2008 just leveled everything down to realistic value where it should of been anyway.To me markets got lot more efficient and smarter now.
Its hard now to hype something to extreme levels without substance.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #359,456
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:29pm Jan 20, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} In one word: yes . They had higher interest rates, and that's the foremost consideration in the FX market.
That's right, and The US interest rates were low for too long which fuelled the elements of the crisis.
Anyone been listening to the Fed and their message?
My point being interest rates largely dictate money flows but do not necessarily reflect "true" economic health.
US Stock market has been the recipient of significant public money during times of crisis and govt debt as seen in the depression after the initial crash, particularly from Indebted Europe.
Sinilar conditions occurring.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #359,457
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:42pm Jan 20, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} It is my understanding that British pound prior 2008 was extremely over appreciated same way Aussie dollar was... Housing crises of 2008 just leveled everything down to realistic value where it should of been anyway.To me markets got lot more efficient and smarter now. Its hard now to hype something to extreme levels without substance.
I guess we have different views on the medium to longer term consequences of the actions of this pairs respective central banks.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #359,458
  • Edited 4:05pm Jan 20, 2014 3:52pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} I see a perfect 1.6380 sell stop eurnzd tonite !
Now eurnzd 1.6320 Exited at 1.6290.
  • #359,459
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:00pm Jan 20, 2014 4:00pm
12pip drop on NY close
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #359,460
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:08pm Jan 20, 2014 4:08pm
Does it mean we might go down at Asian session?
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