Cable Update (GBPUSD)

That scenario of a retrace and resumption downwards looks very plausible to me. Probable, even. Let it be so.

PM you

I presume recent spike looks "unhealthy"

There is two possibilities:

1. Either all other currency pairs with USD will follow GBPUSD (EURUSD< NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF)

or

2. GBPUSD will retreat from recent highs and go bearish.

one more possibility is to stay in sideways

It might be good position for entry short and placing stop on the high of Friday's

It’s often the little pictures that reveal the view of the panoramic. My last Sunday in China was a good example of such.

Ambling on foot around some distressed street that I did not know, could never hope to be able to pronounce, and which was not shown on the suggested walking routes imprinted upon the map that I had received from my good man at the hotel’s concierge desk, I stumbled across an old lady. She appeared to be 70 years-old, but given her apparent state of survival, could well have been only 50. Maybe less.

Regardless, she was, in my opinion, of an age that has missed out on the Chinese policy of state education for all, and as such, was bent over a small table whilst desoldering components from a huge pile of electronic boards. Her hands were black, her hair all over the place, and her clothing, at my best description, more tattered and yellow than her rotting teeth. I know her teeth were this condition because she smiled as I mosied on by the plume of poverty that surrounded her.

Once back in the much-appreciated comfort of corporation-provided five star, I then began to read of the bank-buddy bandit from Brussels – José Manuel Barroso – declaring, from Greece, of all places, that the crisis in Europe is over. I nearly choked on my cappuccino. A reaction not missed by those members of staff that, present in the top floor VIP lounge, waited dutifully to attend to every whim of the yáng guǐzi… that’s foreign devil. Members of staff that were all female, subservient to the point of annoying, and all of whom had porcelain-coloured features that I am convinced are a result of them being locked in darkness when not on duty - their complexions would suggest that they are not allowed to venture outside of the hotel, and thus allow their angelic faces to be tainted by the defiling smog, let alone any sunlight that might happen to break through and give the population a much-needed infusion of Vitamin D.

Recomposed with a few smiles from these seraphic faces that, I assume, were disguising their wrath at receiving only a dollar a day to be in deferential waiting to the barbarian from Britain, I returned my attention back to Barroso. Wanting to shout out to him that I think that the problems within Europe have just begun, I remembered the comportment expected of me whilst within such opulent surroundings. As such, I subtly requested, by way of a discreet index finger, that a fresh cappuccino be enjoyed - courtesy of the bill that many who may be reading this little ditty, will have helped my corporation to pay for - before taking a further perusal of my complimentary newspapers.

I then began to muse over how with still six months to go, some 10 million Chinese students, all of them 18 years in age, were preparing to take their study books back home with them for the Chinese New Year. A dedication to aspiration that I quickly linked to the old lady being wasted out in the street, as she ran a little business of scrap metal collection, and also electronic component reclamation for sale to backstreet gadget manufacturers. It’s good to know that things are being recycled…

You see, behind her, and in what could be best explained as a garage, but which was also obviously her home, sat a young girl, working industriously over some books. A sight that I am familiar with. Just like how I am acquainted with the importance of education in China, and also of the growing millions within this nation that take the Gaokao – entrance exam for Chinese University. I am also aware of how even the poorest of people have the desire to support their family’s futures. And rightly bloody so. And which made me think that perhaps the smile that was so freely given to me, was an acknowledgement that even though the old lady’s situation seemed cripplingly dire, her hopes and dreams for her family were not.

Which may be more than can be said for parents within Europe.

Sure, many may be fooled by the proclamation that unemployment levels are stabilising, even falling, within Europe, but the quality of this assertion is contaminated by the fact that the rules and metrics for measuring misery for the masses are changing. More so for the young, as this demographic are increasingly being denied the opportunity to be registered as surplus to requirement, nor be eligible for inclusion within government recognition of their plight. As for receiving unemployment status, and subsequent assistance, it seems to be getting harder for them, and which may further explain the falling unemployment figures... the exodus of the willing and able, from Europe, as they seek recognition elsewhere, also a factor for contribution in the good news printed from the political pulpit.

Where the young of Europe are heading to, it is difficult to say, as they are discovering that not only are they competing against fellow Europeans that have been sold the idea of a certain standard of living that they cannot afford to purchase, but that they are also competing against the 10 million annual graduates from China. Most of whom are prepared, or simply have no choice other, than to live in squalid factory dormitories, and survive on a bowl of rice a day and two hours of ‘social’ recharge via Weibo.

And this must be a scary thought for many elsewhere, as the red army of academia represent a workforce that is prepared to toil for far less, and far longer, than the cleaner in the traditional West who holds in one hand, a PhD in chemistry, and in the other, a mop and bucket to clean up their broken energy.

Indeed, so strong is the onslaught from China to surrender its youth to rapacious global corporatism, that these foot soldiers of the brave new world have little to no time for ‘real’ social interaction, as they spend almost every waking moment studying to pass the Gaokao. And if that seems like poor dedication to some, consider that there are still others, as was reported recently, who attend a classroom in China that provides energy-boosting amino acids to their students – available via intravenous drips that are hung from the ceiling!

It is with this thought in mind that I scoff at the false prescriptions given by the administrators of Europe; a fractured false promise for so many, and one that, rotting beneath its surface, is unable to contain the evolution transpiring within the East.

very nice post, 45 condor, can I repost it?

45Condor,

Was that written back in the late 80's? I swear I read that just as Reagan was leaving office and I heard repeatedly about the opulence of the 80's, and of capitalism, and how the Japanese (Oh wait, did you say Chinese?) were going to be the new up and coming country that would be the economic powerhouse in the world.

Is China the Japan of the 21st century?

Certainly India gets its turn sometime, shouldn't it?

Hi Chonchy,

Yes, be my guest.

I'm slowly getting back into writing little pieces for FF... beats the constant "short, long, no, wait, short" shouts that often plague these forums during the working week,

...written about 8 hours ago - the wife was competing in a riding competition, I couldn't muster the energy to go, and so, foregoing my other responsibilities around the home (I used the excuse of jetlag), I did what I enjoy the most. That is, having a little rant in type.

I've just returned from China, and which while something of a proverbial hole in many places, has a GDP, and associated economic projection (it has, apparently, just overtaken the US as the world's largest goods trader), that should worry many in the West. Yes, of course, the prosperity of China relies a lot upon the prosperity within the West... and therein lies the paradox of its progression.

India… hmm.

I see what you mean Sir, I certainly do.......thanks.

I think 45 sir,we should begin learning to speak Chinese, we may need it soon.

Still got my shorts @ 6440 and 6330. In the red overall (6440 short doing well) but i'm hoping this week that i can get them all into profit Going to take profit around 6300 for them and then see how it plays out around that area when deciding if i'll short some more.

Going to study some more pairs today as GU is taking up all my time at the moment!

EU looks good to short at the moment if it can get rejected at the trendline moving up. Interestingly enough i have a sell in EU on a demo account at 3613 that it well into profit. Wishing it was in my live account now

Hey this is a valid question ...I dont know your strategy or system but if you got instant price feeback and you are under water, why do you think its going to come back into your favor and you will be taking profits at 6300 when your original analysis didnt work ?
Also if you had devoted all your time to Gbp/Usd and you are not doing as well how will you do if you now divide your time between 2 or more pairs.
You are doing pretty well in your demo account and maybe thats because you are using your method/rules on it better . Like cutting your losses short and letting your profits run. I take long position trades often times with 50-70 + stop losses adjusted position sizing but if its going against me 25 pips ill rather close the trade and reenter if my initial analysis comes out true . yes i dont mind paying the 2-3 pip spread rather than taking it in the chin.

They were trades i was well in profit in and decided to let run (i've previously taken profit far too early which is why i've been hesitant to take profit recently), and then got screwed after the news and the huge hike in price. From what i can gather due to the price being rejected around the 6450's it should come down at least to where i can be in profit due to the short i took out after the hike.

If i take the loss as it stands i'll still be well in profit from previous shorts last week, but it is more than i'd like to lose if i'm honest. I'm trying to not be as strict with my stop losses as i keep finding more often than not that it keeps turning around and going in favour of my original analysis.

It is something i need to work on in regards to stop losses and money management!

Plus with living in the UK myself, i know how rubbish it is here and that it's just going to keep getting worse, regardless of what the government will have us believe.

It also makes me feel more confident that people far more experienced than me are predicting the same decline of the pound as myself.

I will admit though that i need to calm down and stop feeling as though i need to be in a trade all the time. Need to be more patient.

It seems to me the rising is not over and the ~6700 resistance is comeing.
Hopefully that is why we see a bullish engulfing on the daily TF.
I have one long position at the moment with a tight SL and i would like to add one more above MPP ~6451.

Green pips to everybody

Ok that makes sense now , your trade is a combination of both Fundamental/technical and sentimental analysis. Fair enough and if your conviction is that strong and it works for you then thats good. Thanks for the openness

one eye on $ ,
at pivot point yes but weekly suggests will be taken
I see $ at 1.7800
note this month open and doji ,taken to upside = continuation

This is my humble opinion about gbpusd

However the £ is trending ,up note large bullish followed by smaller ,then this month rather small at this point ,
weekly within 3 week consolidation ,under 2.9000 ,top of channel ,
say gbp closes out at 2.9000
2.9000 /1.7800 =1.6292
gives wick cover to last weeks cable candle

Yes I agree with you
Price never goes straight up or down but one can't deny that up momentum has fizzled and last spike was temporary news driven.
To me AB=CD pattern has not been completed.Its still valid

I'm an open book, me!

I'm not going to pretend i have a killer strategy or pattern - i don't use any indicators usually, but have been finding use for Fib Retracements and multiple moving averages just lately. I mainly just trade with support and resistance and with the bigger picture (trend).

I'm still new to this though and find i'm often either too early or too late - but i'm working on that

I hope for lots of profit for the both of us my good man!