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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #358,761
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:03am Jan 15, 2014 11:03am
For people who like trend lines and channels.
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  • #358,762
  • Edited 11:34am Jan 15, 2014 11:05am | Edited 11:34am
:nerd:
Quoting Baggi
I'm still trying to catch the bottom of this thing. We could go back down as far as 6220 and test that support again, but I certainly wasn't expecting that.

Sir B,

Daily Lower Highs. Lower Low on the swing
4H 200 ema is above price
This needs to be left alone till it shows clear direction but... Note US DX is showing signs of breaking to the top- side
There are expectations that Fibre will reach parity with USD and Im brave enough to note trend reversal on EU

Caution is advised, small positions only....

GU 4H

Watch list is now price trading below 1.626 which would confirm the bear market and opens targets to 1.55

Risks to review here would be +ve GBP data or poor US Data

G/L
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  • #358,763
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:18am Jan 15, 2014 11:18am
Quoting el_duende
For people who like trend lines and channels. {image}
What are you trying to say with your chart ? LDDDDDD
  • #358,764
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:19am Jan 15, 2014 11:19am
Latest swing down stalled exactly at 38.2Fib amazing how that works.
I anticipate going down further rest of the week so not setting hard stops.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #358,765
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:29am Jan 15, 2014 11:29am
Quoting Davit
Latest swing down stalled exactly at 38.2Fib amazing how that works. I anticipate going down further rest of the week so not setting hard stops. {image}
Bearish on daily TF and other TFs. Think tomorrow it will break through the 1.6314 mark and continue down?

Tempted jump back in with a short.
  • #358,766
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:33am Jan 15, 2014 11:33am
Quoting Davit
Based on Guppy MA's ... Heart of the presentation is when investors and traders agree on price when both slow and fast MA's converge that's when we anticipate breakout or trend exhaustion.
Davit,

I don't understand how Guppy came to the conclusion that the fast group tracks the efforst of traders and the slow group tracks the investors (big money). It makes no sense to me.

Perhaps you could clarify it?

Thanks, Karel
  • #358,767
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:37am Jan 15, 2014 11:37am
Anyone else see GU at 1.672 in a week or two?
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,768
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:45am Jan 15, 2014 11:45am
Quoting 110101
Anyone else see GU at 1.672 in a week or two?
How so? What makes you think this as opposed to it continuing down after breaking next resistance?
  • #358,769
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:46am Jan 15, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Griffo
{quote} How so? What makes you think this as opposed to it continuing down after breaking next resistance?
a daily chart with a fib over past months action.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,770
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:48am Jan 15, 2014 11:48am
Quoting karelk
{quote} Davit, I don't understand how Guppy came to the conclusion that the fast group tracks the efforst of traders and the slow group tracks the investors (big money). It makes no sense to me. Perhaps you could clarify it? Thanks, Karel

Hi Karelk
Often banks trade weekly and monthly charts and stay in it longer duration then traders as long 6-12months.Traders on the other hand go in and out of the market hence fast MA's.
I know its all math but if you are a bank trading monthly chart obviously slow moving average will be the bases for the trade.Guppy makes perfect sense.The system was invented for stocks but works on all markets.

Inserted Video

this is him talking about his system.Very interesting notice he does pay attention to TL and not necessarily MA cross overs.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #358,771
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:50am Jan 15, 2014 11:50am
if it weren't for tomorrow's news+Big Ben's speech i'd have a full long with a stop loss. but i think tomorrow will be very choppy so i'll wait for the direction so far this is just a retracement.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,772
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:59am Jan 15, 2014 11:59am
Quoting 110101
if it weren't for tomorrow's news+Big Ben's speech i'd have a full long with a stop loss. but i think tomorrow will be very choppy so i'll wait for the direction so far this is just a retracement.
Fair enough mate The long term trend is still quite clearly up on a daily TF and on a monthly it looks as though it could very well hit the target you mentioned as it has finished well above previous resistance.

But at the moment it seems bearish on the daily for the past couple of weeks so could be a retracement as you say since the trend is still up long-term. All very interesting stuff!
  • #358,773
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:04pm Jan 15, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting Griffo
{quote} Fair enough mate The long term trend is still quite clearly up on a daily TF and on a monthly it looks as though it could very well hit the target you mentioned as it has finished well above previous resistance. But at the moment it seems bearish on the daily for the past couple of weeks so could be a retracement as you say since the trend is still up long-term. All very interesting stuff!

I may be 100% wrong in my assessment so don't let me mess you up. I also have doubts and one of the reasons is EU. I think EU will fall further and I wonder how that would affect GU.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,774
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:29pm Jan 15, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting 110101
{quote} I may be 100% wrong in my assessment so don't let me mess you up. I also have doubts and one of the reasons is EU. I think EU will fall further and I wonder how that would affect GU.
Depends if the fall is due to dollar or EUR. If dollar, it will affect all XXX/USD including G/U. Sometimes watching EUR/GBP could help but ......

I personally think G/U can't be far away from G/J
  • #358,775
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:37pm Jan 15, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Depends if the fall is due to dollar or EUR. If dollar, it will affect all XXX/USD including G/U. Sometimes watching EUR/GBP could help but ...... I personally think G/U can't be far away from G/J
Hi Ken, GJ imo will also shoot up, based on what I see from the charts atm. Isn't GJ a mix of UJ and GU?

It's funny that you wrote if the fall would be due to EUR or USD strength/weakness. Now i'm trying to picture tomorrows news and ben not give usd too much strength but enough to spook EUR bulls, lol.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,776
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting 110101
Isn't GJ a mix of UJ and GU?
Indeed and G/U can't run away from the rest unless someone is willing to absorb the spreads lol

Everyone was calling 1.55 and look where the last high was.

Compare G/J monthly to E/J monthly. G/J is still far behind E/J. If history to repeat itself G/J still has few thousand pips to catch up with E/J.
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  • #358,777
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:52pm Jan 15, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Indeed and G/U can't run away from the rest unless someone is willing to absorb the spreads lol Everyone was calling 1.55 and look where the last high was. Compare G/J monthly to E/J monthly. G/J is still far behind E/J. If history to repeat itself G/J still has few thousand pips to catch up with E/J. {image}

From your text to market makers eyes/brain/execution, lol. Lets make it.

To be honest I don't go past the Daily in most cases, ill look into "monthlys", thanks.

Also, Ken, if you remember... Not too long ago there was this spreadsheet(fibo) I haven't read into it, is it worth my time?
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,778
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:59pm Jan 15, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting 110101
Also, Ken, if you remember... Not too long ago there was this spreadsheet(fibo) I haven't read into it, is it worth my time?
I won't go there. FIB is useful for me to measure target/reversal etc and as a road map PA geographical location.
  • #358,779
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:02pm Jan 15, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I won't go there. FIB is useful for me to measure target/reversal etc and as a road map PA geographical location.

I guess i won't be investing my time. It looked interesting but I skimmed through the thread and no one actually made sense of it. Thanks
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #358,780
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:19pm Jan 15, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting Bones
lol maybe consolidation zone we all gonna be wrong some time or other ,for this train to turn gonna take time perhaps imo ,you must be a bit concerned tl/pivot gone ,you trading into it ,
agreed...definitely consolidation bro....and one of the most challenging one at that...

I don't know tl looks pretty intact to me.....might be wrong tho....got sl in place just in case.

my H8 looks like this... kinda pin-ish....


Have a good one bro!
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