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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,461
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:43pm Jan 10, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} Stop playing games and asking questions. This is how silly and useless you are. You say you can prove if I am real by a question. Hahha. We are trying to prove who is good at trading. That is what this forum is about, trading. I say you can prove if I or you are real by showing everyone your account. Time to put your money where your mouth is. Open up an account with MT4. Its not very hard. I'll help you if you want! Link it here on FF so we all can see. Or we can link our account with another third party like my fx book, etc. You say I...

Cheers
  • #41,462
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:54pm Jan 10, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} So so funny. So you are calling my BS by not answering my question. perfect! you clearly don't know the answer to the simple question then, proving that you clearly don't trade to a high level. Also, using a 3rd party wouldn't work, as like I said I use FXall. so neither of your two options. the fact the think 1 lot = $10 per pip for USDJPY just shows how stupid you are! its really quite funny reading this. But for sure, try and make yourself not look like a complete and utter idiot and answer my previous question. I am sure for a pro trader...
Okay I had enough of you. I don't know the answer. If this proves that I don't know how to trade than fine you win. 1 standard lot is $10 per pip. I hope you understand this. I wont call you names and go to your level. In fact I wish you nothing but good luck my friend. This is all. You are a great trader and I wish you nothing but green pips. If you ever want to trade account vs account for fun to show everyone let me know. If not I understand. You are a great trader and I take nothing from you. Green pips to you and have a great weekend. Now lets get back to trading usd jpy shall we!
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #41,463
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:59pm Jan 10, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} Okay I had enough of you. I don't know the answer. If this proves that I don't know how to trade than fine you win. I standard lot is $10 per pip. PI wont call you names and go to your level. In fact I wish you nothing but good luck my friend. This is all. You are a great trader and I wish you nothing but green pips. If you ever want to trade account vs account for fun to show everyone let me know. If not I understand. You are a great trader and I take nothing from you. Green pips to you and have a great weekend. Now lets get back to trading...
1 standard lot is not 10 USD per pip. That is only true on pairs which are CCY/USD

Therefore for EURUSD 1 lot = $10 per pip, but for USDJPY and USDCAD this is not the case.

Do the math.

Oh and btw, not knowing the answer proves to me and everyone in hear that you know absolutely nothing about what you are talking about.
  • #41,464
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:03pm Jan 10, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} 1 standard lot is not 10 USD per pip. That is only true on pairs which are CCY/USD Therefore for EURUSD 1 lot = $10 per pip, but for USDJPY and USDCAD this is not the case. Do the math. Oh and btw, not knowing the answer proves to me and everyone in hear that you know absolutely nothing about what you are talking about.
Okay when I punch in 100 lots in software this is what is giving me. Maximum lots available. Okay you are right I know nothing. I am horrible trader and I should find another job. Maybe work at gas station is good for me. I wish you good weekend my friend. Take care buddy!!!!
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #41,465
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:05pm Jan 10, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} So so funny. So you are calling my BS by not answering my question. perfect! you clearly don't know the answer to the simple question then, proving that you clearly don't trade to a high level. Also, using a 3rd party wouldn't work, as like I said I use FXall. so neither of your two options. the fact the think 1 lot = $10 per pip for USDJPY just shows how stupid you are! its really quite funny reading this. But for sure, try and make yourself not look like a complete and utter idiot and answer my previous question. I am sure for a pro trader...
I've been trading for a long time and I'm lucky if I clear six figures a year, but I also started with 3k. I wish I was blessed to have been born into a family with a ton of cash to just give me to screw around with. Sounds like that's what Forexvegan "has". I will say I learned allot starting small though.

Usd/jpy isn't exactly 10 a pip per a lot but its close .
Attached Image
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,466
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:09pm Jan 10, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I've been trading for a long time and I'm lucky if I clear six figures a year, but I also started with 3k. I wish I was blessed to have been born into a family with a ton of cash to just give me to screw around with. I will say I learned allot starting that way though. Usd/jpy isn't exactly 10 a pip per a lot but its close . {image}
exactly!

And the USD per pip varies depending on the USDJPY exchange rate. when the USDJPY was trading at 80, 1 standard lot would have equalled ~$12 per pip.

However for the EURUSD, no matter what price it is at, 100,000 notional units will = $10 per pip.

SIMPLE MATHS!
  • #41,467
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:15pm Jan 10, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} exactly! And the USD per pip varies depending on the USDJPY exchange rate. when the USDJPY was trading at 80, 1 standard lot would have equalled ~$12 per pip. However for the EURUSD, no matter what price it is at, 100,000 notional units will = $10 per pip. SIMPLE MATHS!
I wasn't born in rich family not even close. I got some money from an inheritance. Sorry if you hate me for this. Most my money came from selling the house and savings working. I took the risk and put my money into broker account. After making profit, I went all in only risking profit. This is how it happened. Yes simple math, I didn't make 80 pips exactly I made 86. something. I was just trying to be simple. Either way, good stuff. Thanks and happy pips!!
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #41,468
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:25pm Jan 10, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I've been trading for a long time and I'm lucky if I clear six figures a year, but I also started with 3k. I wish I was blessed to have been born into a family with a ton of cash to just give me to screw around with. Sounds like that's what Forexvegan "has". I will say I learned allot starting small though. Usd/jpy isn't exactly 10 a pip per a lot but its close . {image}
Heh, one more troll here. You already showed your "knowledge" of markets going long on USD/JPY and I find it amusing to read you are clearing anything close to 6 figures, mkay?
  • #41,469
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:28pm Jan 10, 2014 1:28pm
OKAY GUYS LETS SETTLE DOWN. How is usd. jpy. Very slow now. I think it will close at 104.00 today. Sunday maybe retrace or we will go down further. Watch out!!! and be careful.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #41,470
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:30pm Jan 10, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting forexvegan
OKAY GUYS LETS SETTLE DOWN. How is usd. jpy. Very slow now. I think it will close at 104.00 today. Sunday maybe retrace or we will go down further. Watch out!!! and be careful.
cash out and invest, man, dont be stupid, you dont have any future with forex in a long run
  • #41,471
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:30pm Jan 10, 2014 1:30pm
If we are done talking about me and my account this will be my last post. Take care everyone. Green pips to all and have a great weekend. Keep at it, it is possible everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #41,472
  • Edited 1:53pm Jan 10, 2014 1:37pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} Heh, one more troll here. You already showed your "knowledge" of markets going long on USD/JPY and I find it amusing to read you are clearing anything close to 6 figures, mkay?
You mostly ignore my posts and I ignore yours. If you bothered to read any of my previous posts you'd know I closed my usd/jpy positions back on 1/5 and pocketed right around 700 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.PNG Size: 122 KB
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,473
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:31pm Jan 10, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting Ulterior
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} ok, I am not a pro, but I would long AUD spot and sell puts to have zero delta - maybe I am confusing rates with swaps, but that is what I would do with large account
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} that would kind of work, but you would not want to be perfectly delta hedged so that you beat the forward rates (as per expiration of puts) so to win, one would have to have some slight delta, therefore meaning you have some AUD exposure. Pretty good idea though. And yes I was referring to interest rates when referring to rates. although swaps are the same thing, options are priced off the forwards and therefore discount this effect.
Maybe in an alternate universe somewhere, you'd be able to get to zero delta by going long AUD spot and selling AUD puts. In this universe, I'd try going long AUD spot and buying AUD puts or selling AUD calls. Besides, you cannot stay perfectly delta hedged on your long spot contracts by using options. There's this annoying thing called Gamma that will have a problem with your strategy.

You guys wanna know a great way to "hedge your deltas a little" in your scenario? Trade smaller size. Unless you're an options market marker or trading some kind of strategy that involves betting on volatility too, there is no reason for you to be hedging with options, in the first place. Unless you're feeling generous towards your broker.
  • #41,474
  • Edited 9:16pm Jan 10, 2014 9:00pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting card
{quote} {quote} Maybe in an alternate universe somewhere, you'd be able to get to zero delta by going long AUD spot and selling AUD puts. In this universe, I'd try going long AUD spot and buying AUD puts or selling AUD calls. Besides, you cannot stay perfectly delta hedged on your long spot contracts by using options. There's this annoying thing called Gamma that will have a problem with your strategy. You guys wanna know a great way to "hedge your deltas a little" in your scenario? Trade smaller size. Unless you're an options market marker or trading...
Hi, sorry, I have edited my post previously about the puts.. Anyway, I know that without dynamically hedging such strategy will not work. I also know that any strategy with negative gamma is a losing strategy, if the gamma was positive you should be able to make money dynamically altering spot position exactly to the size of a premium received selling the calls. That is what a broker should be doing, not a trader! The only way gamma can be positive is when simply buying options - again - not about forex... In general, knowing that markets which we trade are already 40 years old - not a lot of risk free opportunities exist You have to be exposed to "something" in order to profit, so as to keep things simple - let us be exposed to delta, trade small and use tight SL according to your strategy and if its a working one, you will make money
  • #41,475
  • Edited 10:30pm Jan 10, 2014 10:10pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} Hi, sorry, I have edited my post previously about the puts.. Anyway, I know that without dynamically hedging such strategy will not work. I also know that any strategy with negative gamma is a losing strategy, if the gamma was positive you should be able to make money dynamically altering spot position exactly to the size of a premium received selling the calls. That is what a broker should be doing, not a trader! The only way gamma can be positive is when simply buying options - again - not about forex... In general, knowing that markets...

exactly! Usually when I tell someone that I have an advanced degree in Math and work as a Quant, they say "Why don't you just start a hedge fund then?". I wish it were as easy as just knowing how to price derivatives. The fact that I work as a quant and know how to price really exotic stuff, give me absolutely no advantage over Joe Dirt who has not even graduated high school and does not know the difference between a Eurodollar and Euro/Dollar. Maybe, 20 years ago, you could have made money by pricing things correctly while everyone else in the world was doing it incorrectly. Famous example is Goldman Sachs taking advantage of convexity in long-dated swaps. They were making a ton of money because their counterparties didn't know what they were doing.

These days, there is no such thing. If you want to make money, you have to bet on something! Price, volatility, correlation. Something! So, why not keep it simple. The only question you have to answer is "Is U/J going up, going down or ranging? Hence, should I go long, go short or stay out? OK, maybe i'm exaggerating a bit with the whole keep it simple thing... but you get the idea.

BTW, there are people out there who consistently make money with negative gamma strategies.

There is absolutely no point in buying $1M AUD and then perfectly hedging $800K AUD. Why not just buy $200K AUD and save the commission costs and spread? I see people complaining about how the US made it illegal for FX brokers to allow "hedging". Where, instead of them netting out your positions, they let you hold the same currency pair long and short. That is so silly. If you engage in this kind of trading, you are NOT in any sense a trader. You're not even a gambler. I would just call you an irrational idiot and happily watch as you are separated from your money!

In my trading, I spend 0 time on pricing, formulas or anything more complex than basic Math. I don't touch options unless I see an opportunity to sell them. And when I do, I just guesstimate which strike to sell. I don't even check if the options are priced correctly because they most likely are. And this options selling does not happen very often. I spend most of my time, keeping track of my emotions, reading Market Wizards over and over again, studying fundamentals and reading The Economist.
  • #41,476
  • Jan 11, 2014 3:46am Jan 11, 2014 3:46am
Quoting yeri
hei guys read this i take it from bloomberg and this is a crazy news but a nice input for me, i hope this will be a good info for you guys also: Bloomberg News, sent from my iPod touch. Yen Elliott Wave Shows ‘Final Surge’ to 72 Per Dollar, MUFG Says Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will rally to a new record at about 72 per dollar next year as the currency’s 40-year rising trend comes to an end, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. said, citing trading patterns. Japan’s currency is in the final stage of an advance that started when the nation...

We have gone from him quoting 124 to 90 now. Looks like someone had a change of view or may have gotten lost as to which direction this YEN is headed.

http://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChroni...TAJ6V06UBQLDAR
  • #41,477
  • Edited 10:37am Jan 11, 2014 8:35am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} We have gone from him quoting 124 to 90 now. Looks like someone had a change of view or may have gotten lost as to which direction this YEN is headed. http://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChroni...TAJ6V06UBQLDAR
the an EXTREMELY bearish view on UJ from large corps. dont buy it just yet
  • #41,478
  • Jan 11, 2014 11:33am Jan 11, 2014 11:33am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} the an EXTREMELY bearish view on UJ from large corps. dont buy it just yet
You have quite a few big guys and corporations saying it is going to 110-115 while others are saying we are headed back to 90. Will be interesting to see who is right. Japan needs YEN at 100 to keep their corporations from losing money and 110 to see profits and growth.
  • #41,479
  • Jan 11, 2014 1:04pm Jan 11, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} You have quite a few big guys and corporations saying it is going to 110-115 while others are saying we are headed back to 90. Will be interesting to see who is right. Japan needs YEN at 100 to keep their corporations from losing money and 110 to see profits and growth.
did you make up those numbers at the end?
  • #41,480
  • Jan 11, 2014 3:15pm Jan 11, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} did you make up those numbers at the end?
dont think he did. read it somewhere myself some time back when the UJ was at 97-99
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