USD/JPY Discussion

com-on guys, we are not surrendering are we?

Hell no......I'll see this pair hit 100 before I'm done with it!!

hei guys read this i take it from bloomberg and this is a crazy news but a nice input for me, i hope this will be a good info for you guys also:

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPod touch.
Yen Elliott Wave Shows ‘Final Surge’ to 72 Per Dollar, MUFG Says

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will rally to a new record at about 72 per dollar next year as the currency’s 40-year rising trend comes to an end, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. said, citing trading patterns.

Japan’s currency is in the final stage of an advance that started when the nation ended the yen’s peg against the dollar in 1973, said Naohiko Miyata, chief technical analyst at the unit of Japan’s largest banking group. The forecast is based on analysis developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression called the Elliott Wave, which says market swings follow a predictable five-stage structure.

“The yen will record its final surge versus the dollar around the first half of next year,” Miyata said.

The yen’s upward trend remains intact, even though the dollar will temporarily rebound early next year toward 89 yen or 85.93 yen, the level reached after Japan intervened in currency markets on Sept. 15, Miyata said. The dollar slid against the yen in the first, third and fifth Elliott Waves, and underwent correction in the second and fourth, he said.

The yen strengthened to 80.22 versus the dollar on Nov. 1, the highest since April 19, 1995, when the currency reached a record high of 79.75. The yen traded at 81.19 per dollar as of 1:11 p.m. in Tokyo.

Fifth Wave

The first wave began as Japan ended the yen’s peg following the so-called Nixon Shock in 1971, when then-U.S. President Richard Nixon’s administration suspended the gold standard for the dollar, Miyata said. The initial wave pushed the yen to as high as 175.5 per dollar in October 1978 before the second wave weakened the yen to 278.50 in October 1982, he said.

The third wave ended when the yen gained to a record 79.75 in April 1995, according to Miyata. The 12-year fourth wave, where a “triangle formation” appeared, finished when the yen hit a low of 124.16 yen in June 2007, he said. A triangle pattern is formed when upper and lower trend lines intersect.

The ongoing fifth wave will likely end in the second quarter of 2011, based on the theory that the dollar bottoms out at an average cycle of about 64 months, Miyata said. The last stage could also end in October next year, based on the assumption that it will take 198 months for the fourth and fifth waves to finish, the same number of months it took for the second and third waves to complete, according to Miyata.

The dollar dropped about 50 percent during the first wave and declined from an April 1990 high of 160.35 yen to a record low of 79.75 yen, Miyata said. The currency may target 75 yen, which is about 50 percent below the August 1998 high of 147.63 yen or 72 yen, one-fifth of 360 yen, according to Miyata.

“In the past, 180 yen and 120 yen -- submultiples of 360 yen -- were seen as key levels,” Miyata said. The dollar’s record low of 79.75 yen is an “overshoot” of 90 yen, which is a quarter of 360 yen, he said.

Yen’s Gradual Slide

After the yen’s 40-year rally ends next year, the currency will begin a long-term decline against the dollar, Miyata said. The yen may target 124 per dollar, the level reached when the triangle pattern was completed in the fourth wave, he said.

Still, since the yen weakened to as low as 147 per dollar during the triangle formation, “about 150 may come into sight” around 2015 to 2016, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hiroko Komiya in Tokyo at [email protected] Kazumi Miura in Tokyo at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at [email protected]

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPhone: http://m.bloomberg.com/iphone/


Sent from my iPod

Very nice and compact information you have here. thanks....

So far, their exports are much bigger than imports.... so they will suck a lot of USD from the world.
US print more USD, but yen is still the same amount, so that will cause increasing yen value..

If yen considers as "safe heaven" currency, i think they will consider the very stronger yen in the future...
But if Japan collaps because their exports is too expensive so only few people can afford it, i don't think that will be a "save heaven"..

would like to see a chart as per article .

guess , the USA and USD is pretty much down and out ... have to consider putting the money in gold and commodities to preserve value and against inflation, like Jim Rogers said.

for udsjpy .. the direction is set ... must be fun playing the charts

hmmm .. will 500 billion usd pumb break usa ? thought usa is made of tougher stuff .. or the children of baby boomers whimps ... ?

cheeky

H1:

not go long ,not go short .what hell the pair is

ah, finally some movement...

80.80 break again... next support 80.3x..

Could be wrong but changed SL on my longs to 80.50 risking 35 pips
Strange PA though, can't find the correlation with USDX anymore maybe market is preparing for risk-aversion and rather chooses YEN instead of USD, well no end to the struggle yet.....

H1:

I'm waiting for either 80.00 or 82.00 then I'll go accordingly
It's two very nice lines there...

Mind to share?
I see the 82 but not the 80.....

i will only seriously going to long in UJ if any daily USDX close above 78...currently have one dummy 50sen long from ~81 area since friday...

all PA look fuck up, look at main pair, gold as well as chf n cad...mmm...BS movement...EY look better than other crosses...i think

chow

g

Sorry, should have been more specific as I hate It myself when people aren't...

I don't look at specific numbers so instead of saying 80.19 I just jacked it down to 80... Too many putting pending orders around obvious numbers, I like to make my pending orders less obvious...

As in not being to obsessed with past number-specifics

Ah right, good thinking, thanks...

Any chance of intervention prior to the G20? I'd assume that when the BOJ hits this one they will do it hard... Does any one have any literature or thoughts?

Afternoon/Morning Traders!

We could see short term resistance at around 80.71 for a re-test of the weekly pivot S1.

USD/JPY M5 (08/11-12/11)

uj stop at 80.60.... do not have any power to clim up..
tomorrow it will dig more hole..

I think Last meeting may cause japan difficult to intervene..
Will this week uj break 80,00?....