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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,921
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:11am Jan 10, 2014 1:11am
Closed my GU shorts with 40 pips loss.
  • #357,922
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:16am Jan 10, 2014 1:16am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Historically, Volatility dies down in the in the NFP week until the main event. Big moves occur during the event and in the week after usually.
yep
  • #357,923
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:21am Jan 10, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Historically, Volatility dies down in the in the NFP week until the main event. Big moves occur during the event and in the week after usually.

True.Its very possible that Morning employment numbers could be green hence end of bull drive.Having that scenario happen which I think very likely I am buffled why so many here keep mentioning "its a bull" and all that shit.
Perhaps we should consider that every trend ends at some point!One only needs to look at last 5yrs to see it.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,924
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:25am Jan 10, 2014 1:25am
Quoting Davit
{quote} True.Its very possible that Morning employment numbers could be green hence end of bull drive.Having that scenario happen which I think very likely I am buffled why so many here keep mentioning "its a bull" and all that shit. Perhaps we should consider that every trend ends at some point!One only needs to look at last 5yrs to see it. Regards
I'll leave you to it then Davit, good luck with your trades.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,925
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:35am Jan 10, 2014 1:35am
That's true.
The Gov/Institution market will ALWAYS work the otherside of what the majority is betting on. That's the only way THEY win. In a capital market, there must be more losers than winners.
So since SSI is still majority short, it will continue to bull run until more than 50% of the shorts go bust before it reverses and goes into a bear- which wipes are majority of the longs.

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} One thing I have learned over the years is that major market players will always try to move the market in the direction where they are more likely to find stop loss orders. If the majority of retail traders are short, then obviously any major player who tries to influence the short term direction is going to buy. So, yes you may have a point. However, we as traders need to pretend we are playing chess, not checkers, and as such we have to look beyond the short term market moves by major players. Instead we need to follow capital flows in...
  • #357,926
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:36am Jan 10, 2014 1:36am
Looks like we may be breaking down.
  • #357,927
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:41am Jan 10, 2014 1:41am
I thought holidays ended last week........
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,928
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:46am Jan 10, 2014 1:46am
Quoting shon9178
The Gov/Institution market will ALWAYS work the otherside of what the majority is betting on. {quote}
above is just false statement.


This is becoming a legendary myth.There is no statistical evidence retail positions (6% of the market) dictate price movement. perhaps short volatility bursts but not sustained long drive.Majority of retail traders have been short on Yen and guess what price has been going on retail way for 12months!
Price largely moves on fundamentals irregardless of retail traders.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,929
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:59am Jan 10, 2014 1:59am
Just as a curiosity roll back your weekly charts and view what has happened in the month of January for the last 6 years running.
  • #357,930
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:08am Jan 10, 2014 2:08am
Anyway............

we got price consolidation above broken hourly wedge with

a mini broadening top forming and positive slope.

Favoring longs.



GBP/USD - H1 1.6471
Attached Image
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,931
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:15am Jan 10, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} above is just false statement. This is becoming a legendary myth.There is no statistical evidence retail positions (6% of the market) dictate price movement. perhaps short volatility bursts but not sustained long drive.Majority of retail traders have been short on Yen and guess what price has been going on retail way for 12months! Price largely moves on fundamentals irregardless of retail traders.
Morning as you know i to have been pulling my shorts stops up,and as you said the trend has to end and i have been saying for 2 weeks now 1.66 was the top, hope were right,looking forward now to shorting and seeing more money you did well keeping your shorts.
  • #357,932
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:17am Jan 10, 2014 2:17am
Lets party guys
Brass All the way
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,933
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:21am Jan 10, 2014 2:21am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Anyway............ we got price consolidation above broken hourly wedge with a mini broadening top forming and positive slope. Favoring longs. GBP/USD - H1 1.6471 {image}
I have a very similar chart.
I think the "Risk On" sentiment is taking effect
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,934
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:24am Jan 10, 2014 2:24am
Looks to me like the DOW is ready to continue with the trend also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us30h4.png Size: 23 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,935
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:31am Jan 10, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Davit
{quote} no offense but you got future seemed all mapped out. nothing worse then writing fiction and believing it as reality. Obvious fact is big guns are not really pushing up the price.There is no real bull momentum.Since Monday to Thurs we got 70 pips hardly a sign for bull fireworks to come.
I only have probabilities mapped out Davit. There is no need to shoot me over it. You're convinced the market is going down and I'm not convinced of anything... just simply following the higher probability.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,936
  • Edited 2:48am Jan 10, 2014 2:33am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I have a very similar chart. I think the "Risk On" sentiment is taking effect
Yup...looks like they're running out of sterlings to sell......
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,937
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:05am Jan 10, 2014 3:05am
Also curious with a small buy trade on the Euro off support looking to retest that broken ascending TL.
I try not to trade this pair but temptation gets the better of me sometimes.

Using Tight stop.

With US banks via our "trusted friends" (efx news) calling short on this pair, I couldn't help myself

Off to dinner, enjoy folks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonthly.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonthly1.png Size: 26 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,938
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:13am Jan 10, 2014 3:13am
Quoting chazzle
GU H4 I have 443 as a med. strength s/r ... so ... 443/470(JAN swing mid) no break no shake

eyes on this level
  • #357,939
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:16am Jan 10, 2014 3:16am
waiting to add more shorts 1.6429 seems like data will be bad because always if it is bad..some1 takes it down before release (insiders?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2014-01-10 at 11.14.45.png Size: 34 KB
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #357,940
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:24am Jan 10, 2014 3:24am
Quoting eqshack
waiting to add more shorts 1.6429 seems like data will be bad because always if it is bad..some1 takes it down before release (insiders?) {image}
Im going to disagree with you there, the GBP is recoiling like a spring then BANG UP UP AND AWAY!!

Hope im wrong though
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