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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,881
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:11pm Jan 9, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} I wish you, because i cant remember to positive trades from you. I hope i did not embarrass you!

You did not embarrass me but I felt little weird someone (IveGotQuads) telling me to take a loss without knowing anything how I trade or anything about me.
Since you did question if I had positives trades I am compelled to show my Jan live account graph.Dollar amounts are blocked since that's not important.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,882
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:27pm Jan 9, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You did not embarrass me but I felt little weird someone (IveGotQuads) telling me to take a loss without knowing anything how I trade or anything about me. Since you did question if I had positives trades I am compelled to show my Jan live account graph.Dollar amounts are blocked since that's not important. Regards {image}
Nice job, keep it long time! But i was not convinced
Anything is math!
  • #357,883
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:06pm Jan 9, 2014 2:06pm
I can't draw charts right now, but on the hourly, this thing has the oddest looking upward trajectory I've seen in awhile.

The bottom isn't a static bottom right now. It has an slowly arching upward trajectory. Perhaps at a 10 degree angle, or less.

Very strange.

I can't remember the last time I've seen such a strange chart formation. But it has the feel to me of a chart pattern that ends in a break down. I have no logical explanation for that, only a feeling. Perhaps because I'm long and it's worry creeping in.
  • #357,884
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:26pm Jan 9, 2014 2:26pm
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/127572...apital-markets

sell ?
  • #357,885
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:26pm Jan 9, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting Baggi
I can't draw charts right now, but on the hourly, this thing has the oddest looking upward trajectory I've seen in awhile. The bottom isn't a static bottom right now. It has an slowly arching upward trajectory. Perhaps at a 10 degree angle, or less. Very strange. I can't remember the last time I've seen such a strange chart formation. But it has the feel to me of a chart pattern that ends in a break down. I have no logical explanation for that, only a feeling. Perhaps because I'm long and it's worry creeping in.
LOL
Anything is math!
  • #357,886
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:33pm Jan 9, 2014 2:33pm
How to Identify the Beginning of a Bull Market
If you’re into trading stocks, bonds, and other risk assets (FX Included), being able to identify the signs of a bull market can help you plan your trading strategy for maximum benefit. Signs that the market is entering a phase of investor confidence are in the following list:

  1. Bull markets begin before the economy starts to recover. Check
  2. Interest rates are low. Check
  3. Industrial production statistics are inching higher. Check
  4. Technology and cyclical stocks are starting to rise. Check
  5. Weekly chart of S&P 500 shows higher highs and higher lows; the MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) line is above the trigger line and rising. Check


How to Trade in a Bull Market
In a bull market, when investor confidence is high, the sound approach to trading is to look to buy fundamentally strong instruments with the following characteristics:

  1. With economic data indicators that are growing faster than average. Check
  2. While the instrument is approaching a technical buy signal on its bar chart and performing better than the average instrument with high relative strength (RSI) Check


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,887
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:34pm Jan 9, 2014 2:34pm
may be that it is being bought upto 1.650 to sell it off quickly over night
  • #357,888
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:48pm Jan 9, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting elbert3
may be that it is being bought upto 1.650 to sell it off quickly over night

One thing I have learned over the years is that major market players will always try to move the market in the direction where they are more likely to find stop loss orders. If the majority of retail traders are short, then obviously any major player who tries to influence the short term direction is going to buy. So, yes you may have a point. However, we as traders need to pretend we are playing chess, not checkers, and as such we have to look beyond the short term market moves by major players. Instead we need to follow capital flows in the markets that influence FX the most. Those are the bond markets (both corporate and sovereign) and the fund managers that invest/trade them. Then just look at the overall general market sentiment (risk-on or risk-off) coupled with the technical outlook/probabilities (Bullish/bearish). When they all line up in the same direction, if you do not pull the trigger, then in my opinion you're missing out on a fantastic opportunity. Oh, and fighting it puts you in a position of high risk / Low Reward.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,889
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:53pm Jan 9, 2014 2:53pm
I personally don't TL's as they are random depending on the trader and seem to just fit so they look nice on graphs.

The 2 in this chart were also 'valid'. The 2nd line is broken would that mean bears taking over?

Suppose depends how people draw them
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  • #357,890
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:53pm Jan 9, 2014 2:53pm
Okay... No more preaching from me. I promise. I just thought I would share how I look at the markets. I'm not always right, but this business is not about what is right and what is wrong. It is more about what is more likely. So if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is very likely a duck. So if you want to be right, it is better to call it a diuck than to call it a fish. Yes?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,891
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:58pm Jan 9, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting el_duende
I personally don't TL's as they are random depending on the trader and seem to just fit so they look nice on graphs. The 2 in this chart were also 'valid'. The 2nd line is broken would that mean bears taking over? Suppose depends how people draw them {image}
You make a very good point. However, what I see in the price action is higher highs and higher lows.
So, until the additional Blue and Red trend lines I drew on your chart are convincingly broken, the chances are that they will delineate the bulls from the bears with additional confirmation once a lower low is formed. Until then, Cable is still bullish.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,892
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:05pm Jan 9, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting el_duende
I personally don't TL's as they are random depending on the trader and seem to just fit so they look nice on graphs. The 2 in this chart were also 'valid'. The 2nd line is broken would that mean bears taking over? Suppose depends how people draw them {image}
What are those other lines on your chart? The red, blue and green lines?
  • #357,893
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:09pm Jan 9, 2014 3:09pm
I like the chances here, 1.646 has been reluctant for 4hr to close above
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  • #357,894
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:12pm Jan 9, 2014 3:12pm
I agree technically cable is still bullish.

I'm just trying to point out trend lines can make a big difference to a chart by making it look more bullish/bearish depending on how it is drawn.
  • #357,895
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:17pm Jan 9, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting el_duende
I agree technically cable is still bullish. I'm just trying to point out trend lines can make a big difference to a chart by making it look more bullish/bearish depending on how it is drawn.
There were three lines on your chart that were not trend lines, all colored differently.

What were those lines?
  • #357,896
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:19pm Jan 9, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} What are those other lines on your chart? The red, blue and green lines?
Green and Red are key areas from my weekly chart. I use the weekly as direction and the daily chart as entry.

Green line is the weekly buy area.

Red line is the weekly short area.

Blue line is in the wrong place, I haven't set it yet. This is just for my daily decision point where I will place an order for long or sell depending on setup.

I normally only trade once a day around 9-10pm.
  • #357,897
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:24pm Jan 9, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting el_duende
{quote} Green and Red are key areas from my weekly chart. I use the weekly as direction and the daily chart as entry. Green line is the weekly buy area. Red line is the weekly short area. Blue line is in the wrong place, I haven't set it yet. This is just for my daily decision point where I will place an order for long or sell depending on setup. I normally only trade once a day around 9-10pm.
I have a feeling, that just like trendlines, those lines change as well. As information changes, we change our lines.

Yes?
  • #357,898
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:27pm Jan 9, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting el_duende
I agree technically cable is still bullish. I'm just trying to point out trend lines can make a big difference to a chart by making it look more bullish/bearish depending on how it is drawn.
Understood, and your points were excellent. However, I do not believe that technical bullishness is subjective. It is a binary (objective) thing. Either it is bullish or it is not.... Just like pregnant or not. There is no such thing as a little pregnant or extremely pregnant.
On the other hand, interpretation of trend lines are very subjective (multiple shades of grey). Anyone who has been trading long enough should know that trend lines are not absolute lines in the sand that price cannot or should not cross. They are only a visual aid. In the absence of lower highs and confirming lower lows, it is still an up trend against which to draw additional rising trend lines until it is time to draw falling trend lines above the PA.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,899
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:28pm Jan 9, 2014 3:28pm
still holding the shorts on this lady long term but, will add the big weapons in 1.6550 area if there is a lovely spike with news.
this thing is still looking very bullish in h4, surely this thing can fall hard if there is any bad news or rumor in london, market love excesses and still this thing
is going up with steam.
  • #357,900
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:33pm Jan 9, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting el_duende
I personally don't TL's as they are random depending on the trader and seem to just fit so they look nice on graphs. The 2 in this chart were also 'valid'. The 2nd line is broken would that mean bears taking over? Suppose depends how people draw them {image}
My point of view, bullish!

Good luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Anything is math!
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