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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,261
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:38pm Jan 2, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting kesk
{quote} If you observe the table, either the value keeps going up or down for any given pair. No up and down movement. Very strange!
hi kesk yes i know that..
Dont Giveup If You Lose.. Try To Learn From Your Fault. U will Sucess!!
  • #357,262
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:39pm Jan 2, 2014 11:39pm
Quoting acidguy
i might be dead wrong but i think well visit 16485-16515 again before trending down again, euro more than falling looks like consolidating for an attempt to ake 1.3700, long term this pair must be down but no one is selling the pound now, sure yesterday there was an euro selloff. {image}
I'm curious why you think long term we must go down?

on the current front, we have pressure building off the immediate 50 fib and major 38.2 fib.
Those 3 4hr black crows are hardly bullish though lol...
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  • #357,263
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:46pm Jan 2, 2014 11:46pm
I guess it could very well depend on ones definition of long term.
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  • #357,264
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:46pm Jan 2, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I'm curious why you think long term we must go down? on the current front, we have pressure building off the immediate 50 fib and major 38.2 fib. Those 3 4hr black crows are hardly bullish though lol...
USDX strenght that has yet to come 1.5800 by Q1 2014, this is the biggest consensus among hedge funds and banks,
wait for monday when hedge funds, london desks start to operate to see how gbp will be sold hard as technicals start to play against gbp,
same as gold bugs come the rescue as 1185 support held hard.
  • #357,265
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:48pm Jan 2, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I'm curious why you think long term we must go down? on the current front, we have pressure building off the immediate 50 fib and major 38.2 fib. Those 3 4hr black crows are hardly bullish though lol...

We had recent green numbers on US but because of holiday it did not impact sufficiently.Opposite on GB and from now any significent data can impact lot more starting from next week.
It only takes few consecutive negative data to change sentiment and once that gets rolling momentum changes and possible total reversal.
If you look at monthly chart Cable has been in range for years and top of this range has not been broken.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,266
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:49pm Jan 2, 2014 11:49pm
1.6352 im wathing this prize right now. when the news red we could see this...
Dont Giveup If You Lose.. Try To Learn From Your Fault. U will Sucess!!
  • #357,267
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:49pm Jan 2, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} USDX strenght that has yet to come 1.5800 by Q1 2014, this is the biggest consensus among hedge funds and banks, wait for monday when hedge funds, london desks start to operate to see how gbp will be sold hard as technicals start to play against gbp, same as gold bugs come the rescue as 1185 support held hard.
Thanks for the reply

can I ask your source?
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  • #357,268
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:54pm Jan 2, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Thanks for the reply can I ask your source?
* here there is detailed information about 2014 forecasts : http://www.efxnews.com/
* bloomberg videos
* sell on the rumor, on monday london desks and hedge funds will be selling hard the pound.

since i closed all my shorts earlier, im looking for another reentry in the 1.6490 - 16515 area to go nuclear short again with a sl 1.6570.
(srry for my english)
  • #357,269
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:03am Jan 3, 2014 12:03am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} * here there is detailed information about 2014 forecasts : http://www.efxnews.com/ * bloomberg videos * sell on the rumor, on monday london desks and hedge funds will be selling hard the pound. since i closed all my shorts earlier, im looking for another reentry in the 1.6490 - 16515 area to go nuclear short again with a sl 1.6570. (srry for my english)
Ok thx for that.

For what it is worth efxnews has pretty much close enough to a 100 percent failure rate on eu and gu forecasts they have published over the last 18 months, they couldn't shoot fish in a barrel.

im not looking to offend anyone, but it is my observation.

Thanks again for your reply
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  • #357,270
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:11am Jan 3, 2014 12:11am
Quoting Davit
{quote} We had recent green numbers on US but because of holiday it did not impact sufficiently.Opposite on GB and from now any significent data can impact lot more starting from next week. It only takes few consecutive negative data to change sentiment and once that gets rolling momentum changes and possible total reversal. If you look at monthly chart Cable has been in range for years and top of this range has not been broken. regards
I'm a pure tech trader following sentiment primarily on weekly charts as most would have seen right now.
I don't speculate on future fundies and their possible market impact without looking at market segmentation and sentiment.
Sentiment and bullish market segmentation tells me that a chunk of most of that extra fed money currently parked as excess bank reserves is starting to to be re deployed into stocks as the numbers and economic outlook improves.

to me this is bullish GBPUSD as it was during the market bubble of 2004-7.

ive got to run the kids bath and give her attention until bedtime as the wife is out, so must go.
Thiszwill be an interesting year either way.
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  • #357,271
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:17am Jan 3, 2014 12:17am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I'm a pure tech trader following sentiment primarily on weekly charts as most would have seen right now. I don't speculate on future fundies and their possible market impact without looking at market segmentation and sentiment. Sentiment and bullish market segmentation tells me that a chunk of most of that extra fed money currently parked as excess bank reserves is starting to to be re deployed into stocks as the numbers and economic outlook improves. to me this is bullish GBPUSD as it was during the market bubble of 2004-7. ive got to run...
you must be right in the short term, looking at the great GBP and Euro that just were released numbers and entry right now at 1.6490 must be shy, now looking higher to sell, look like at any moment and USD selloff will occur, dollar is still wounded cause the goverment shutdown that ocurred, this sentimend will likely start to fade in a few months and final 2014 dollar will be a winner but not now.
  • #357,272
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:30am Jan 3, 2014 12:30am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I guess it could very well depend on ones definition of long term.
Never mind the definition of long term. Although I usually suck at timing, in this case I don't think I would be far off if I said we're due for a meltdown by Q3 2014
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,273
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:42am Jan 3, 2014 12:42am
Liquidity seems to be even tighter than it already is with the snow storm in NYC....I doubt most NY traders will be on their desks in a few hours.
  • #357,274
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:06am Jan 3, 2014 1:06am
Quoting IveGotQuads
Liquidity seems to be even tighter than it already is with the snow storm in NYC....I doubt most NY traders will be on their desks in a few hours.
Surely they can just trade/work from home?

Really unsure as to what's going on with this pair at the moment! Might just leave trading this until next week and see what happens for the rest of the day today.
  • #357,275
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:07am Jan 3, 2014 1:07am
Continuation from yesterday's chart . I think there is good room for downside to below levels
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  • #357,276
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:20am Jan 3, 2014 1:20am
I don't think we have more room to downside. Uptrend still goes. This is profit-taking for both EU and GU. And I will buy on dip.
Trade your plan.
  • #357,277
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:35am Jan 3, 2014 1:35am
someone mentioned that on coming Monday the institutional traders will start to make big moves. but why Monday?
I would have though it would be Wed/Thu/Fri which leads to coming NFP release when it usually moves big leading to 1 week trends.
  • #357,278
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:14am Jan 3, 2014 2:14am
GU H4 GMT+3

Maybe some volatility is coming.
Bull trend and long signal are still valid.
Later if price could be above ~6464 at lower TF retrace i will add one more long.
Invalidation price is if price could close under ~6382.

Good luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Anything is math!
  • #357,279
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:17am Jan 3, 2014 2:17am
Quoting shon9178
someone mentioned that on coming Monday the institutional traders will start to make big moves. but why Monday? I would have though it would be Wed/Thu/Fri which leads to coming NFP release when it usually moves big leading to 1 week trends.
NFP is next week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,280
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:22am Jan 3, 2014 2:22am
Quoting Kajos2250
Bull trend and long signal are still valid. Good luck! {image}
Thanks

Tight stop on this one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 27 KB
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