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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,221
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:04pm Jan 2, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting Baggi
To some of the newer traders here (like me!) I wouldn't recommend listening to everyone who posts in here and taking their advice. Some people are pretty deep in the hole one way or the other, yet continue to have strong opinions on the direction of this pair. Here is what I do, take it for what it's worth. 1) I read through the forums and look for those who write in an intelligent and meaningful way. I tend to skip over people who have poor english and grammar skills, not because they aren't intelligent or know what they are talking about, but...
Very good Baggi. I think everyone should do that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,222
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:08pm Jan 2, 2014 2:08pm
PipTrapper,

Do you have any view on tomorrow's GBP news, specifically on construction?

I tried looking through historical releases but really couldn't come up with any opinion on whether we're going to have a hit or miss tomorrow.
  • #357,223
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:14pm Jan 2, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Germany makes goods that the whole world wants and they don't mind paying premium dollar (Euro) for them. This keeps Germany growing regardless of the Euro exchange rate... to a certain point of course, but anything under 1.50 is fine for them. In fact 1.50 is pretty much the E/U fair value for Germany. Also with a stronger Euro, Germany gets to buy all their raw materials at a much cheaper price. This either translates into higher profits for the manufacturers, or savings which they can pass on to the buyers or a combination of both. Either...
correct. one point is missing: the german labor market reforms (agenda 2010) during 2003-2005. german unit labor costs decreased while in other countries of the eurozone unit labor costs increased. therefor, the german industrial sector is very competitive - and it is a bigger part of the german gdp than in any other economy of the eurozone
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #357,224
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:18pm Jan 2, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Baggi
PipTrapper, Do you have any view on tomorrow's GBP news, specifically on construction? I tried looking through historical releases but really couldn't come up with any opinion on whether we're going to have a hit or miss tomorrow.
Construction PMI is not based on econ data and is therefore almost impossible for us (who do not have access to privileged data) to predict.
The PMI is survey data compiled from specific questions about future prospects posed to key individuals who work in the construction sector. It's basically like asking a meteorologist if it's going to rain tomorrow. His response will be an opinion based on the atmospheric activity he sees at that moment. Ask him a few hours later and he may give you a different forecast. As such, I cannot give you an opinion other than "The trend is up".
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,225
  • Edited 2:34pm Jan 2, 2014 2:23pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} correct. one point is missing: the german labor market reforms (agenda 2010) during 2003-2005. german unit labor costs decreased while in other countries of the eurozone unit labor costs increased. therefor, the german industrial sector is very competitive - and it is a bigger part of the german gdp than in any other economy of the eurozone
That will change dramatically once minimum wage takes effect there.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,226
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:27pm Jan 2, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I agree. Cable and Euro will fail against the dollar soon, but not yet. I think Euro needs to see 1.45 and cable needs to see 1.73 However before we get to those dizzying heights that seem to defy all logic, we should see a correction... and before we get those corrections, we need to finish the current upward cycle. Euro around 1.40xx and Cable around 1.66xx
hi,

how big correction do you mean ?
  • #357,227
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:39pm Jan 2, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Baggi
To some of the newer traders here (like me!) I wouldn't recommend listening to everyone who posts in here and taking their advice. Some people are pretty deep in the hole one way or the other, yet continue to have strong opinions on the direction of this pair. Here is what I do, take it for what it's worth. 1) I read through the forums and look for those who write in an intelligent and meaningful way. I tend to skip over people who have poor english and grammar skills, not because they aren't intelligent or know what they are talking about, but...
If you are here to find signals, dont do it!
If you want to discuss some view, just do it
I have never trade just because Anyone told!

Trade your strategy, hold it's roules and "trend is your friend"!!!
Anything is math!
  • #357,228
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:40pm Jan 2, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} That will change dramatically once minimum wage takes effect there.
as far as i know, the agreed wages payed in most industrial sectors are already higher than the minimum wages (8,50 EUR/h) which will be payed in 2017. itīs more the services sector where the un/lowqaulified labor force will have an increase in wages and a decrease in the number of employees.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #357,229
  • Edited 3:00pm Jan 2, 2014 2:49pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} as far as i know, the agreed wages payed in most industrial sectors are already higher than the minimum wages (8,50 EUR/h) which will be payed in 2017. itīs more the services sector where the un/lowqaulified labor force will have an increase in wages and a decrease in the number of employees.
A good part of those industrial sector jobs are on a temporary basis -- even the highly qualified ones -- which were made possible by the same labor reforms you mentioned earlier and are being abused by the employers which will be changed along with minimum wage laws as well.
That would put a major dent in their competitiveness in the years to come.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,230
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:52pm Jan 2, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting reclude82
{quote} hi, how big correction do you mean ?
That will depend on the next high. From there we will be able to measure where the correction should end. However, like all corrections it will be unpredictable.

Just to give you some clue, I will take a wild guess that Cable will correct to around 1.6250 and Euro will correct to around 1.3500. Ask me again once Euro has tested 1.40
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,231
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:03pm Jan 2, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} A good part of those industrial sector jobs are on a temporary basis -- even the highly qualified ones -- which were made possible by the same labor reforms you mentioned earlier and are being abused by the employers which will be changed along with minimum wage laws as well.
abuse is a hard word. i think itīs better to have a temporary job than to be unemployed. and as far as i know the coalition contract, there is no plan to bring the laws back to the status of 2002. hope so.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #357,232
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:10pm Jan 2, 2014 3:10pm
Still in the green and looking good so far. Let's see if I get to keep these positions overnight.

G/U
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U/CHF
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E/U
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,233
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:15pm Jan 2, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting jmss59
Today was easy to operate {image}
Good point on some serious divergence, jmss.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #357,234
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:18pm Jan 2, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} abuse is a hard word. i think itīs better to have a temporary job than to be unemployed. and as far as i know the coalition contract, there is no plan to bring the laws back to the status of 2002. hope so.
It's not a hard word, it's the reality. Even their chancellor warned employers not to overdo it.
There is no reason why a highly qualified workforce should be "lent out" to employers and paid below market rates (because part of it goes to referring employment agency) instead of being employed full time in a proper manner.
Their competitiveness of the last decade was artificially propped up by "wage dumping" made possible by those labor reforms...once these components are no longer politically sustainable (especially with rising inflation in the coming years) , there will be a major tangible dent in their competitiveness.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #357,235
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:25pm Jan 2, 2014 3:25pm
GU Daily

Divergence leads to correction (1.66 holds as resistance)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GU 1H

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Bulls stay in control as long as 1.64 holds
  • #357,236
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:28pm Jan 2, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Still in the green and looking good so far. Let's see if I get to keep these positions overnight. G/U {image} U/CHF {image} E/U {image}
Hey PT this are todays trade or over the week ?
  • #357,237
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:38pm Jan 2, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey PT this are todays trade or over the week ?
Today
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,238
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:44pm Jan 2, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Today
Nice ive got pip envy lol didnt do anything today, missed all these moves but then again you got to follow your rules.
  • #357,239
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:46pm Jan 2, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Nice ive got pip envy lol didnt do anything today, missed all these moves but then again you got to follow your rules.
I've been waiting for these entries since Monday, but you already knew that

Quoting PipTrapper
My short term trade plans.
Red = sell zone
Green = buy zone
E/U H1 {image}
G/U H1 {image}
U/CHF H1 {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #357,240
  • Jan 2, 2014 4:06pm Jan 2, 2014 4:06pm
GU H4 GMT+3

Lets see bulls power
Invalidation if it could close under ~6382.

Guud luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Anything is math!
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