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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,201
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:39am Jan 2, 2014 11:39am
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} I agree to this and I am short as well, but I mean after this huge fall I think it will rebound for correction then carry to fall more to 1.63 area... that's why i am confused, is it better to keep my shorts till 1.63 or should I have some buy orders now just to trade the correction wave? and what are you going to do after it reaches 1.63? take your profit or carry on with your shorts? thanx
Depends what timeframe you are trading. This isnt a huge fall on the higher timeframes.
  • #357,202
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:45am Jan 2, 2014 11:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am trying longs from here. I may be a bit early, but I'm cool with that for now. I'll take partial profits at end of day and lock the rest. G/U M15 {image}

I'm hesitant right now to get rid of my shorts and only have my longs. All the profit I had last night in my longs was erased. A few weeks of profit all gone overnight. Had I not hedged with shorts, I'd be right back where I started.

So now I'm thinking I'll give it a few days and see where this goes. I may do some quick, short, scalps, depending on what the charts are telling me. But during any major news events, I plan to remain hedged.
  • #357,203
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:50am Jan 2, 2014 11:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Excellent
Thanks friend ... never give up in this market ...that's what I learnt
  • #357,204
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:50am Jan 2, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I wonder why you did not apply true worth of Euro and Sterling as well but only dollar. To me Euro is much weaker currency then US dollar.Euro zone has not solved Greece,Portugal,Spain,Italian crises yet(40%unemployment in Greece and Spain) Things will get unravel soon.
i disagree: greece is a midget to the eurozone with only 2% of its gdp. also portugal is a dwarf. italy has probelms, but had never been broke - and the private sector in italy has more gold per individual than the germans. north italy has a well developed industrial sector - no one cares about the mezzogiorno, as no one cares about eastern germany. spain has left the esm. and the banks in southern europe can easily print money: lending from ecb for 1% (ltro), buying 3 years government bonds, giving them the ecb and lending again for 1%, receiving higher interest rates with not a single cent own capital, and thanks to the draghi-put, they can be sure that the ecb will bail them out if needed under the esm-sceme.

saarland, berlin und bremen had been broke for a long time, but this did not harm the dm.

in relative terms, the usa has more debt than the eurozone - and the us governement is willing to increase national debt skywards, trailing top... drone-janet is following heli-ben, and so on.

but as i can see, the vast majority here is short in eurusd...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #357,205
  • Jan 2, 2014 11:58am Jan 2, 2014 11:58am
Following PA ATM. Its a new year so regardless of whether or not GU is weak...the markets need to set a year low/year high so i have little worries about any spike.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #357,206
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:22pm Jan 2, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting eliasahmar
{quote} I think I have a good idea about SL and TP... thanx for the advice... and I didn't ask you for trading decisions, I asked your opinion to share thoughts nothing more... I think this's the purpose of forums... at the end everyone has his own way of trading... peace

Google Van K. Tharp "Super Trader"
Great book which covers a lot.Tough book to get through but if you do all it requires of you then you will be way better trader.
Trading is evolution.We must consistently try to get better until reach mastery.I am doing this daily and I have lot of faults.Think of professional basketball player.They shoot thousands of foul shots just to be ready when under pressure on critical games they make the shot.Trading is same.We must train our thinking for real success.
This is hard business in which majority fail.We must actively try to duplicate thinking process of winners.When you ask a advise in public forum about trading you are unavoidably not ready to trade.
I am serious take time off and really try to hummer out your weak points.You'll save hundreds of dollars and have few more hairs.Market is not going anywhere.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,207
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:34pm Jan 2, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} yes i agree with that , then we have to wait for time to tell ,if we know all the answers we would all be rich, but we dont i am afraid
What?! We don't know all the answers???
(drawing back in shock and fright)
Damn...that's going to make this a little more difficult than I'd hoped.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #357,208
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:38pm Jan 2, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Google Van K. Tharp "Super Trader" Great book which covers a lot.Tough book to get through but if you do all it requires of you then you will be way better trader. Trading is evolution.We must consistently try to get better until reach mastery.I am doing this daily and I have lot of faults.Think of professional basketball player.They shoot thousands of foul shots just to be ready when under pressure on critical games they make the shot.Trading is same.We must train our thinking for real success. This is hard business in which majority fail.We...
ill have to work hard on this, sometimes i jump out of my trades very early when in profit but let bad ones sometimes run for weeks till i can get out.
do you use some strategy like trailing stops or lock out profit with sl?

from the biggest bear of all times Jesse Livermore, ill leave this for some traders who find it useful :

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  • #357,209
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:38pm Jan 2, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} i disagree: greece is a midget to the eurozone with only 2% of its gdp..
In trading market just needs an excuse to do what it does.Last year Cyprus issue caused serious fall from 1.31 to 1.2750 on Euro and compare to Greece Cyprus is a tiny ant.While Cyprus is only 0.2% of the Euro Zones economic output it did cause Euro to fall.
Situation in Greece is very tense.Lot of people out of work and austerity measures are just crippling the country.When Greeks start burning cars and rioting on streets trust me Euro will get effected.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,210
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:42pm Jan 2, 2014 12:42pm
GU H4 GMT+3

Unfortunetly i had to close all longs and had to give back much money to the market
The daily bearish engulfing at the moment is not a good sign for bulls.
The daily bullish trend has not been changed i am finding long signals.
Opened long because the rejection of rising trend line invalidation if candle could close under ~6380.

Good luck!
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Anything is math!
  • #357,211
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:44pm Jan 2, 2014 12:44pm
Little pullback on the pound, but one day doesn't mean a trend change.
  • #357,212
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:56pm Jan 2, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting Jason W
Little pullback on the pound, but one day doesn't mean a trend change.

190pips drop is not small potato.
Sentiment is more important.New Year fresh momentums.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #357,213
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:07pm Jan 2, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} 190pips drop is not small potato. Sentiment is more important.New Year fresh momentums.
Good point, however I think one should keep in mind the unlikelihood that the high for the year would occur this early. Therefore, even if today's action is a portend of things to come in 2014, we're still likely to see trading generously on both sides of the end-of-2013 close for at least awhile yet.

Jack
I trade offshore with 1000:1 leverage and spreads less than a pip - http://tradersway.com/?ib=1004609
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #357,214
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:15pm Jan 2, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} In trading market just needs an excuse to do what it does.Last year Cyprus issue caused serious fall from 1.31 to 1.2750 on Euro and compare to Greece Cyprus is a tiny ant.While Cyprus is only 0.2% of the Euro Zones economic output it did cause Euro to fall. Situation in Greece is very tense.Lot of people out of work and austerity measures are just crippling the country.When Greeks start burning cars and rioting on streets trust me Euro will get effected. Regards
thanks for your reply. short-term you are right (event-driven). if, then. but itīs not sure that this will take place and hence, to go short now would be trading an opinion on political risk, which no professional trader should do, itīs gambling. austerity is not the reason for the problems in greece. politicians promissed their voters presents for decades, debt rose to extranormal figures relative to the potential of the greece economic potential. f.e., greece has no bottling plant for its olive oil. inefficient taxsystem is also a main problem. now, the gdp shrinked to itīs fair value i think.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #357,215
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:21pm Jan 2, 2014 1:21pm
That looks like a a big shadow two candle stick reversal formation but as you see in the candlestick to the left I ellipsed, price has been at that range not to long ago and the probability of this reversal dropped drastically. Not to mention the unpredictable time we are trading "new year" also on the 4hrly and daily we are still in bullish territory as this could be the retracement we have been looking for. also it touched the 50 SMA and 200 EMA and bounced up, not to mention it touched the 0.500 FIB and bounced again Shorting this now is a very risky venture and you will be fighting a lot of forces both technical and fundamental. Good luck and may the pips be with you .
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  • #357,216
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:21pm Jan 2, 2014 1:21pm
My opinion on cable by tomorrow end or Monday
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  • #357,217
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:27pm Jan 2, 2014 1:27pm
Today was easy to operate
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  • #357,218
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:45pm Jan 2, 2014 1:45pm
To some of the newer traders here (like me!) I wouldn't recommend listening to everyone who posts in here and taking their advice. Some people are pretty deep in the hole one way or the other, yet continue to have strong opinions on the direction of this pair.

Here is what I do, take it for what it's worth.

1) I read through the forums and look for those who write in an intelligent and meaningful way. I tend to skip over people who have poor english and grammar skills, not because they aren't intelligent or know what they are talking about, but because I have trouble comprehending them.
2) If you find someone you believe is on to something, click on their name and read back through a few months of their posts. This can take some time but will be worth it. You'll find the most intelligent posters and traders this way. Some, sadly, or just poseurs. This is a good way to find the diamonds in the rough.
3) When you do find the poseurs by reading back through their previous posts and seeing what poor traders they are, keep reading them, but with a healthy grain of salt. Even poseurs have something to offer.

Good luck and happy new year!
  • #357,219
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:58pm Jan 2, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting Baggi
To some of the newer traders here (like me!) I wouldn't recommend listening to everyone who posts in here and taking their advice. Some people are pretty deep in the hole one way or the other, yet continue to have strong opinions on the direction of this pair. Here is what I do, take it for what it's worth. 1) I read through the forums and look for those who write in an intelligent and meaningful way. I tend to skip over people who have poor english and grammar skills, not because they aren't intelligent or know what they are talking about, but...
Bravo Baggi.
Gone to a better place
  • #357,220
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:59pm Jan 2, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Orientxpress
{quote} Germany is seriously one of a kind. I'm very impressed with the country and it's people. Put Germany in a ring against any country in Europe... KO in 3 rounds. But....why?
Germany makes goods that the whole world wants and they don't mind paying premium dollar (Euro) for them. This keeps Germany growing regardless of the Euro exchange rate... to a certain point of course, but anything under 1.50 is fine for them. In fact 1.50 is pretty much the E/U fair value for Germany.

Also with a stronger Euro, Germany gets to buy all their raw materials at a much cheaper price. This either translates into higher profits for the manufacturers, or savings which they can pass on to the buyers or a combination of both. Either way, it's Euro positive since Germany is considered the economic engine of the Eurozone and the markets tend to pay more attention to their econ data than any other EX member state.

The other Northern Eurozone member states mostly trade with other European countries so they don't give a toss either.

France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc would love a much lower Euro, but until the banking stress tests are out of the way, they can whistle dixie for it. Besides all that, despite the high unemployment and ridiculous debt burden, there are signs that the weaker EZ states have stabilized and may be on the verge of turning around. Yes they will falter once more and there will be more capital flight as the truth about the ridiculous state of their banks' balance sheets is revealed, but it's going to take a little while before the shit hits the fan... When it does, then you can short the Euro to your heart's content all the way to 1.15

Another consideration which is as clear as day in the charts is that Japanese banks and corporates have been incentivized by the BOJ to invest in foreign assets as opposed to JGBs and they are leading by example... and by foreign assets, I mean European equities and bonds.

So, add it all together and that tells me that any significant dip in the Euro at this point in time would be akin to throwing a few pieces of meat in a fish tank full of starving piranhas.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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