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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #357,081
  • Jan 1, 2014 9:57pm Jan 1, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} As many of you know i am not a big believer of higher timeframe technical scenario plays. I just have yet to find a person that can logically convince me of technical analysis having such a power. I believe in econ data and its trend ("smart" money), cross asset correlations ("smart" money) and retail positioning/orders ("dumb" money). I use quotation marks because in reality the same set of people can at one time be the "smart" while on other occasions the "dumb"
I thought it might be interesting to follow up on this past discussion. The yellow line is the original BO line (the red is a monthly BO). It maybe just lucky that it appears to be a trend continuation but the 15.12.13 rejection is a confirmation of the level. The BO I suggested at the time proved to accurate vs the SL hunt others were commenting on. At the time most euro pairs were on BO too that correlated to the GU. It's not the first time I have traded this set up using TA and is actually one of the most reliable ways for me to make pips. I am not saying this is a certain trade or anything but just showing you there can be power in higher TF TA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #357,082
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:01pm Jan 1, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} It's not so much that I don't think we'll get up there. We might. I don't have a clue. But don't you expect a serious pullback before then? Seems like you're expecting those prices soon.
Depends on your timeframe perspective.

Looking at the weekly chart, we had 4 straight bullish weeks, breaking the major descending multi year TL in the process.
We then spent 3 weeks retracing back towards the broken TL and are now resuming the trend.

As I mentioned earlier in the week to PT, my interpretation is that the retrace has occurred.
It seems to me we are now in slingshot mode north.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,083
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:15pm Jan 1, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Depends on your timeframe perspective. Looking at the weekly chart, we had 4 straight bullish weeks, breaking the major descending multi year TL in the process. We then spent 3 weeks retracing back towards the broken TL and are now resuming the trend. As I mentioned earlier in the week to PT, my interpretation is that the retrace has occurred. It seems to me we are now in slingshot mode north.

I don't really know enough to comment.

Could you show me an example from the past of what you're expecting to happen? Specifically, from GBPUSD?
  • #357,084
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:19pm Jan 1, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I thought it might be interesting to follow up on this past discussion. The yellow line is the original BO line (the red is a monthly BO). It maybe just lucky that it appears to be a trend continuation but the 15.12.13 rejection is a confirmation of the level. The BO I suggested at the time proved to accurate vs the SL hunt others were commenting on. At the time most euro pairs were on BO too that correlated to the GU. It's not the first time I have traded this set up using TA and is actually one of the most reliable ways for me to make...
Logical chart, I have the same/similar.
The only thing I can think of is that some traders who are nursing underwater positions are in emotional denial of the obvious reality.
I did this myself when I had a long position at the beginning of the year, so I understand how it can make us see things, but at some point we just need to look objectively at the chart and reassess our view.

Thinking that a strengthening US economy alone is going to strengthen the USD against the Pound without factoring the current and obvious risk on sentiment, that Ben said he will keep interest rates low even AFTER target unemployment reached and that the Fed are still printing like crazy, is simplistic thinking.
As Govt debts continue to rise, and cash interest rates are near zero, smart money gravitates to where the returns are.
With the numbers improving and the DOW accelerating north, it's clear the big money views the stock market cash rich companies as providing the right mix of safety and returns.
If any one has anything to add, subtract or alter, I'm happy to discuss when I get the chance.

Cheers.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #357,085
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:48pm Jan 1, 2014 10:48pm
I took a short right now to balance my long and protect my profits. I may have jumped the gun here, but the rejection at this level, highlighted in blue, is giving me fits.

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If we go up for a bit, I'll hang on to both positions for a bit to see if we ever make our way back down to retest.

But for now, I'm going to hope for a bit of a correction and then I'll buy to close my sell position and let the longs ride some more.
  • #357,086
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:55pm Jan 1, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting Baggi
I took a short right now to balance my long and protect my profits. I may have jumped the gun here, but the rejection at this level, highlighted in blue, is giving me fits. {image} If we go up for a bit, I'll hang on to both positions for a bit to see if we ever make our way back down to retest. But for now, I'm going to hope for a bit of a correction and then I'll buy to close my sell position and let the longs ride some more.
hope for you the best, im also short, but while the usd is strenghtening the gbp is holding ground, wonder which big bank software is doing the buy orders to keep it so perfectly around the 1.6575-1.6590 for many hours.

this is the most shorted pair right now, so if it goes down without taking many stop losses equals losing big money for many big players.
  • #357,087
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:00pm Jan 1, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Logical chart, I have the same/similar. The only thing I can think of is that some traders who are nursing underwater positions are in emotional denial of the obvious reality. I did this myself when I had a long position at the beginning of the year, so I understand how it can make us see things, but at some point we just need to look objectively at the chart and reassess our view. Thinking that a strengthening US economy alone is going to strengthen the USD against the Pound without factoring the current and obvious risk on sentiment,...
Thanks for your fundies analysis. I am still lacking in this department, I am still yet to develop that "sense" of direction like I have with technicals. I follow and understand but often conversion-to-chart/trades doesn't compute with me. I read reports and news but aside from data release's that can set trends I haven't found the "niche" as of yet, l'll keep looking though and hopefully I'll get it eventually .

The bold of your quote is one of the hardest lesson's that I found learning forex. It is so easy to be biased toward a position in the "hope" that price will return. I have found myself scouring my charts for clues that PA will return to my favour despite obvious indications of the opposite. In the past I have lost weeks of profit in a single trade due to my stubbornness. It is too easy to free fall in forex and forget the hard work done to achieve current profits.

Thanks
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #357,088
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:49pm Jan 1, 2014 11:49pm
Looks like I pulled the trigger too soon.

Ah well, I'll give it a bit and maybe we will get a pullback.
  • #357,089
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:56pm Jan 1, 2014 11:56pm
maybe 1.6673 can be answer to some? Most likely I am wrong
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #357,090
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:08am Jan 2, 2014 12:08am
Quoting buytosell
maybe 1.6673 can be answer to some? Most likely I am wrong

I agree with you on 1.6673, but then from my chart 1.6603 must be taken off for the quick run. Any way lets see how the next hour goes.
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #357,091
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:30am Jan 2, 2014 12:30am
biggest risk for gbp comes from its data. a month and two of not so good data and it gets hammered again. be careful while buying it here. it may go to 1.7 but come back to 1.55 long term. you decide
  • #357,092
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:33am Jan 2, 2014 12:33am
I said in the past and hopefully people made 100-150 pips profit. Now, saying it again, London desk is going to sell cable heavy starting from Monday.. They are looking at 1.61 level..
  • #357,093
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:44am Jan 2, 2014 12:44am
Quoting veer2010
I said in the past and hopefully people made 100-150 pips profit. Now, saying it again, London desk is going to sell cable heavy starting from Monday.. They are looking at 1.61 level..
Thanks for sharing this info. Just out of curiosity, how reliable do you think your source is, do you have a direct link to this desk?
  • #357,094
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:45am Jan 2, 2014 12:45am
Quoting veer2010
... London desk is going to sell cable heavy starting from Monday.. They are looking at 1.61 level..
Hi, please advise where did you get such info
  • #357,095
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:48am Jan 2, 2014 12:48am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Thanks for sharing this info. Just out of curiosity, how reliable do you think your source is, do you have a direct link to this desk?
I trust him because he was right most of the times.. can't reveal more details..
  • #357,096
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:53am Jan 2, 2014 12:53am
Quoting veer2010
{quote} I trust him because he was right most of the times.. can't reveal more details..
Gotcha. A pullback from these levels can definitely make sense, let's see what happens next week, thx again
  • #357,097
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:55am Jan 2, 2014 12:55am
Quoting veer2010
I said in the past and hopefully people made 100-150 pips profit. Now, saying it again, London desk is going to sell cable heavy starting from Monday.. They are looking at 1.61 level..
Last time you said this they didn't start selling until a day later. And they didn't sell for long before it started to go back up.

You were either lucky the first time, or you really do have a source. If you're right a second time, well, I'll say it now, thanks for the info.
  • #357,098
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:56am Jan 2, 2014 12:56am
Quoting veer2010
{quote} I trust him because he was right most of the times.. can't reveal more details..
still remember when u made that call last time, it fell big for some days,
adding other short to cable at 16595 sl 16620.

thx for the call.
  • #357,099
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:57am Jan 2, 2014 12:57am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} still remember when u made that call last time, it fell big for some days, adding other short to cable at 16595 sl 16620. thx for the call.
He said they won't start until Monday. Might not want to jump the gun here.
  • #357,100
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:58am Jan 2, 2014 12:58am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I don't have a profit shorting the pound. I have a profit going long.
Good deal...that pound short woulda been really painful. lol
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