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  • #867,041
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:10am Jan 1, 2014 4:10am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I don't think he was saying that trends don't end. Instead I think he is saying, go with the trend until a new trend is established. Trying to call the end of the trend is pretty darn tough.

Let me ask you a simple logical question.
What probability factor you can conjure up that what you think is UP trend is not down trend next day or week.
There is no real evidence to prove one over the other.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #867,042
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:14am Jan 1, 2014 4:14am
Quoting Magix
but DAMN. Happy New Year, Brother!
Happy new year to you too Magi
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,043
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:16am Jan 1, 2014 4:16am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Let me ask you a simple logical question. What probability factor you can conjure up that what you think is UP trend is not down trend next day or week. There is no real evidence to prove one over the other.
I'm not sure I understand the question.

I'll say this though, trends are established all the time. If you're trading the daily time frame, your trend might be different than if you're trading the 1 minute time frame. If you're trying for 500 pips, you're looking for a different trend than the guy looking for 10 pips.

I don't think one could dispute, for example, that at the moment, GDP/USD is clearly in an up trend. Right? Do you agree that GDP/USD is in an uptrend? If not, what would you call the current movement in GDP/USD?

Until trend lines are broken, we can say it's in an up trend. Once trend lines are broken, we can say the trend has changed, or, we're not sure. There are always four possibilities. Up trend, down trend, no trend, undecided.
  • #867,044
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:33am Jan 1, 2014 4:33am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I'm not sure I understand the question. I'll say this though, trends are established all the time. If you're trading the daily time frame, your trend might be different than if you're trading the 1 minute time frame. If you're trying for 500 pips, you're looking for a different trend than the guy looking for 10 pips. I don't think one could dispute, for example, that at the moment, GDP/USD is clearly in an up trend. Right? Do you agree that GDP/USD is in an uptrend? If not, what would you call the current movement in GDP/USD? Until trend...

All what you wrote is typical.I am not talking about the obvious.What I am asking is can you statistically probability wise say UP trend is UP and it will continue go UP.
Simple fact is you can't! End of story.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #867,045
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:37am Jan 1, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} All what you wrote is typical.I am not talking about the obvious.What I am asking is can you statistically probability wise say UP trend is UP and it will continue go UP. Simple fact is you can't! End of story.
If you're asking can I know where the price is going in the future, then yes, you're right, I cannot. No one can.

If you're asking can I take the higher probability trade by going with the trend, then yes, I can.

"statistically probability" sounds like you're asking the second question.

We all would like to know what the highest probability trade is.

You are saying you disagree with the statement that the highest probability trade is with the trend?
  • #867,046
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:52am Jan 1, 2014 4:52am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} If you're asking can I know where the price is going in the future, then yes, you're right, I cannot. No one can. If you're asking can I take the higher probability trade by going with the trend, then yes, I can. "statistically probability" sounds like you're asking the second question. We all would like to know what the highest probability trade is. You are saying you disagree with the statement that the highest probability trade is with the trend?
That's debatable if you have a higher probability.It depends where you buy or sell.I do believe in exhaustion points.Buying Euro now is not high probability trade.
Inserted Video

worth watching.
I like Sam Seidon
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #867,047
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:52am Jan 1, 2014 6:52am
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's debatable if you have a higher probability.It depends where you buy or sell.I do believe in exhaustion points.Buying Euro now is not high probability trade. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChQ0SUiPExI worth watching. I like Sam Seidon

Great, can not agree more
  • #867,048
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:39am Jan 1, 2014 7:39am
Quoting Davit
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChQ0SUiPExI
Wise words indeed.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #867,049
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:56am Jan 1, 2014 7:56am
Quoting ffleo
what is the definition of idiot, wacho, and psycho? That is the type that talk like a theorist, but never trade on a live account. They are those trade on demos and still lose, but talk like a theorist.

that means u practically feel far more superior than those who lost and those who trade on demos.
this means u have achieve a good confidence needed to become trader.

support resistance calculated from theory. candle from theory. wave from theory.
of course the topic to talk is theories and fundamentals. if it's not those two, then definitely talking about rumours, gossip, assasination plan or something.
example:
i said to tom_d_trader 1.32 is gone when price breached 1.3550 n 1.3625. why? coz 1.32 is not valid wave 4 place.
1.30 show up again after the fifth created but will dissapear when 1.4025 show up. why? becoz some of us expect a triangle 3-3-3-3-3 meanwhile other expecting flat 3-3-5

i know most of u would not care the explanation after the fact (some call this hindsight).
at least i can explain why i short and why i long (regardless none reached my tp (1.2393 and 1.60) )
bwahahahhahahhahah
so, tell me the reason why u only target 1.30 for your short since 1.3832?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #867,050
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:13am Jan 1, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Davit
{quote}worth watching. I like Sam Seidon
I have some reservations about this guy, although I know he is a god for a lot of s/d traders.. I don't trade major daily trends, I'm more focused on the minor ones.. 3-5 days trends... This is all debatable but I think sam makes the assumption the move (trend) will turn at his zones.. That's quite a big assumption, but if you are a levels trader then you better have your r/r squared out.. I had an exchange earlier this week about that (the r/r) and how can you actually calculate it.. you can't as a matter of fact.. In order to do that you have to know 2 things.. you have to know the turning point for your entry, and you also have to know the price will reach your target.. these two are pretty high order.. and if you can't know these two things, then you have to know the probability of one being hit before the other... and so what am I saying? well, I guess going with the "trend", however each and every one defines that, is the better way.. you will only be wrong twice and you will be right all the way in between... All this implies knowing the price behavior before, inside and after consolidations because this is where most get tripped... So in conclusion, being a price movement trader is much safer than being a price level one, imo..

On the same token, the price will not move only in one direction.. It will turn, that is a mathematical certainty just as returning back to ANY previous price is (given enough time) because the pairs FLOAT, and that's what floating means.. always going back.
  • #867,051
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:53am Jan 1, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's debatable if you have a higher probability.It depends where you buy or sell.I do believe in exhaustion points.Buying Euro now is not high probability trade. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChQ0SUiPExI worth watching. I like Sam Seidon
Nice one!!
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #867,052
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:55am Jan 1, 2014 10:55am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} that means u practically feel far more superior than those who lost and those who trade on demos. this means u have achieve a good confidence needed to become trader. support resistance calculated from theory. candle from theory. wave from theory. of course the topic to talk is theories and fundamentals. if it's not those two, then definitely talking about rumours, gossip, assasination plan or something. example: i said to tom_d_trader 1.32 is gone when price breached 1.3550 n 1.3625. why? coz 1.32 is not valid wave 4 place. 1.30 show up...

nice, nice, nice

I would say, that FFleo might look at volume and have some huge supporting volume found in the 3080 area
  • #867,053
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:59am Jan 1, 2014 10:59am
Quoting Avir
{quote} Nice one!!
you think so?
  • #867,054
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:02am Jan 1, 2014 11:02am
Quoting attila
{quote} I have some reservations about this guy, although I know he is a god for a lot of s/d traders.. I don't trade major daily trends, I'm more focused on the minor ones.. 3-5 days trends... This is all debatable but I think sam makes the assumption the move (trend) will turn at his zones.. That's quite a big assumption, but if you are a levels trader then you better have your r/r squared out.. I had an exchange earlier this week about that (the r/r) and how can you actually calculate it.. you can't as a matter of fact.. In order to do that you...

But mean reverting sometimes happens only after very large moves. And especially in Forex sigma 6 to sigma 10 moves are not so uncommon.

When trend-trading: do you wait for confirmation?

If yes, do you wait for price hitting a thought to be rejection area, or do you trade the break of the building consolidating range?
  • #867,055
  • Edited 11:55am Jan 1, 2014 11:11am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting attila
{quote} you think so?
Not agreeing with everything - But some. I like what they say - Retailers should trade like Institution.
I will need this Video in a few months and i quoted the post so it'll be easier for me to revisit.
Obviously for some one came from Institutional Trading to Retail - We should looks Muppets
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #867,056
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:12am Jan 1, 2014 11:12am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} But mean reverting sometimes happens only after very large moves. And especially in Forex sigma 6 to sigma 10 moves are not so uncommon. When trend-trading: do you wait for confirmation? If yes, do you wait for price hitting a thought to be rejection area, or do you trade the break of the building consolidating range?
I wait for confirmation. I do not wait for price hitting a specific area.. The reason for that is that many times the price moves let's say just below an important level and it starts consolidating there.. Or maybe it touches the level (zone) and pulls back into consolidation for the next assault.. I am very specialized in trading consolidations, especially break outs..

Many times the price consolidates and then it seems rejected (a low is broken or something), but that's only a selling pressure release and the price turns right back up and attacks the highs...
  • #867,057
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:14am Jan 1, 2014 11:14am
Quoting Avir
{quote} Not agreeing with everything - But some. I like what they say - Retailers should trade like Institution. I will need this Video in a few months and i quoted the post so it'll be easier for me to revisit. Obviously for some one came from Institutional Trading to Retail - We should looks Muppets I was going to add the highlighted part to my original post - For some reason i opt out but you Hawk caught me
I don't know, look at a chart and see how many times his stuff fails, mostly when multiple s/d zones are stacked up.... besides, why is he into selling/education?
  • #867,058
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:18am Jan 1, 2014 11:18am
seems like I've got an alter ego user at the bottom of the page.. attilafx... THAT'S NOT ME!
  • #867,059
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:24am Jan 1, 2014 11:24am
Here's what I think 90% of technical analysis time should be spent on.. Forget about trend, that's the easy part... 3 things are of utmost importance: Is price entering/at the beginning of a consolidation? How do you identify that? second, once we're in it, which way is it going to break? and at this second stage it is important to completely disregard, levels (to the pip or otherwise), s/d, candles, etc.. and thirdly: where is the consolidation located?
  • #867,060
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:25am Jan 1, 2014 11:25am
Quoting attila
seems like I've got an alter ego user at the bottom of the page.. attilafx... THAT'S NOT ME!
lol. that means you have one more follower.

I would like someone to have a name ffleofx
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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