EURUSD

Let Us Move On!!

Don't wrap it up in gold
Don't hide it behind the sun
Just give it to me as it is
and let it stand

Don't fly it like a kite-between the clouds
-it need no excuse-
Just bring it down!



And let all that is lost be forgotten
And it will pass
So let all that is lost be forgotten
Let us move on....!!

Happy New 2014 Every one

This post is in reference to the battle that is being waged in this thread. I am not taking sides because I agree with both (and also disagree) and this will be my only post on this because it is becoming murky in here.

First a word about stop loss hunting occurring only countertrend: I don't think that is correct. In order for that to happen, the trend must be well defined. Before the spike, the trend was hardly that. I don't buy the fact that after the taper, all the big players agreed (and colluded) that they are all Euro bulls. This is just not possible. So just the fact that it spiked up when few of us thought the world was long euro does not invalidate the stop loss hunting theory. What does though, is the fact that there is a much simpler explanation. It might have happened that given the recent news release of the tapering the number of shorts were simply too large and what we saw was a cascading effect. A short squeeze.

Stop loss hunting is usually done when market makers work in tandem to drive out weak hands in a particular stock. It is symptomatic of active collusion on the part of market makers. Who are the market makers here? Do you think Oanda talks to George Soros and BOJ to drive out a bunch of mitrapips? Each of them has a very different purpose, appetite and notion of where the market is headed.

However short squeeze is more spontaneous and builds on itself. While stop loss hunting is usually very short lived, and should look like a spike on a 15 min chart, short squeeze can go on for days. The former is more deterministic and requires active involvement by some parties whereas the latter can be a natural fallout of order supply and born out of chaos. I am not saying forex market cannot be rigged or that short squeeze cannot be orchestrated - only both are less common than their counterparts.

One last thing that needs to be kept in mind is that the market was very illiquid and it might have so happened that a group of brokers decided to trip the chain of orders that were piling up. However, a key difference from stop loss hunting is that in that case the brokers who do the hunting knows exactly where the stock is headed and that is why they hunt it in the opposite direction to where it is headed. They can do this because they make the market for that stock and know the direction with near certainty. In this case however, no one knows for sure. Soros and Draghi hold completely different views on the fate of euro. So the term stop loss hunting is a misnomer to begin with when no one is sure where the pair is headed. It does happen in forex when brokers try to trip their clients but that should not even occur as a blip on the charts.

I Googled to say good bye to 2013 and i came up with that

Magix is a seasoned pro on here.

Mitrapips.

Awesome.

Thanks for taking the time to not take an immediate position to the popular vote but to actually state a compelling case for your position and ideas as they pertain.

I agree with quite a few of points you have made:
- I don't buy the fact that after the taper, all the big players agreed (and colluded) that they are all Euro bulls. This is just not possible.
-Stop loss hunting is usually done when market makers work in tandem to drive out weak hands in a particular stock.
- Do you think Oanda talks to George Soros and BOJ to drive out a bunch of mitrapips? Each of them has a very different purpose, appetite and notion of where the market is headed.
- One last thing that needs to be kept in mind is that the market was very illiquid and it might have so happened that a group of brokers decided to trip the chain of orders that were piling up.

And, I would even buy into the idea of this being a short squeeze.

From my personal standpoint and if I seriously wanted to weigh in on the idea of mass conspiracy, it would go something like this:
Over the holiday season, market has an increase in volatility becase, as you have mentioned it was very illiquid. During this time, a common trade strategy is trading breakouts, as matter of point, this is one of the strategies I employ. The idea is that if you buy above the previous high in a long trend, it assumes the continuation of said long trend.

With this in mind, several of the brokers had mass positions based on this same strategy and drove price into trip these pending orders, only to drop the market and create losers along the way. When these folk come back to market, not only will they be surprised that their orders were triggered, but quite possible shocked at the size of the hole in their accounts that used to be money.

Under the assumption, and this is grossly over-exaggerated, that as much talk as people have about placing a stop loss, they will do the same thing with a TAKE PROFIT. Sweeping into these TP points, doesn't create losers...it gives profit so by definition alone, it cannot actually be a stop loss hunt. As many times as this has been touched on, I still refuse to believe that in order for the Market Makers to generate funds, they will give people an easy and immediate paycheck. At 200 pips, someplace inside of there, how many wouldn't have found a place to take profit?

We know that greed and stupidity slaughter the pigs, so, sure, that 200 pips skyhigh that has now retraced to price being below weekly open may have created some bullish losers...but it would seem to me this spike devoured more bears than anything, than could have bulls.

From a fundamental standpoint...I couldn't actually offer up a valid argument if you told me that the reason that price went up was because Aliens had parked at the WhiteHouse or that they EURO zone decided to kick out the losers to try and balance their books...Honestly, I just don't know.

Reason being...I just don't care.

I have been in markets for just over a dozen years now, cut my teeth on stochs. One of the biggest fallacies in market is the press. It simply cannot be trusted.

Sure, it does turn pennies into dollars and micro traders into millionaires, but these too are exceptions, not the rule. Buy on Rumor, Sell on News is the generality.

From my time in studying stocks and now into Forex for the last 5 years, I have come to see the same patterns. Volume starts trends and Volume stops trends. Surge in, surge out. And this doesn't need to happen on any single event or fundamental driver...it can just happen, and I do actually watch this on all time frames all crosses and still in the stock markets. I have even coined the clichés to explain these movements in, it is Always darkest before the Light and Always brightest before the Night.

Creating a massive spike before the lights get turned out...sure I can believe that. Will we see some downside in the New Year? Sure, I can buy that too. Will we see an all out exodus and move back to down trend next year? It's possible. As for right now...we are long.

So for, "the trend must be well defined".

I will again state that the trend was defined and prevalent since the close of summer session. When market opened fall, we were above yearly open and this area was tested for support and held. Yes, we are looking at the Yearly Candle, but my belief is that the market is fractal and should be treated as such. Here, I see a higher low and close above open. As we were coming into the final days, which is now final hours, selling into this candle, doesn't seem to be playing to the overall trend.

Again, I think you did a fantastic job in stating your position and reasoning.

I may not agree with you, but like that you have taken the time to explain it.

One last word...

I used to golf quite a bit. Not because I was good, but more so because golf is a great FANTASTIC excuse to drink beer.

When I was out with a buddy of mine, we were out in Winderemere area, playing this nice little course...can't remember the name. Anyways, we were on a par 4 and it was only deemed a par 4 because of the yardage, not necessarily because of the difficulty. What made this par 4 a little easier to take on, was that it had a greatly elevated Tee box. This of course, makes hitting the long balls a little easier because of the whole, hang time.

Anyways, I pulls out my Alien 7 hybrid, chokes up on it and smacked this tiny little dimpled ball. It was a beauty.

Nice off the tee, heading straight for the green, no beach nor water in sight!

Falling just short of the green, it bounces on!!

My buddy says, "Great Shot".

I said, "I just got lucky".

He says, "lucky, what the fuck were you aiming at if not the hole?"

I sees the market like this. If the idea is making profit, and the market swings in favour of trend and in favour of your trade and you got stopped out...this isn't luck and you weren't hunted. It is exactly how things should have been.

The only way hunting stop loss points make sense is to assume that the general retail market group as an entirety takes on trades with the grand design to lose money.

Think about it...

And Happy New Year!

Does any one here know how and for how long to season/age a steak"

The ones celebrating New Year are not here.

a round top or just a t-bone one…?

I think you should ask Ffleo, he is the butcher...

not true, I am having a great one, did not go out, went to sleep early, just my girls and I, please do not ask….

yup cut some steak slices today and baked them nicely. Infinitus is the cook though. Do you have beers or boozes?

Holy fuck, Man!

I haven't turned the New Year Here yet...

Vachus had top post of the year with his, Everytime market pulls back 20-50 pips, USD bulls scream Charge...

This was unchallenged until right NOW!

I'd have to flip a coin to determine a winner, but DAMN.

Happy New Year, Brother!

New Year already in your place? it is snowing outside here.

You be good with yourself my friend…..life is precious….. I wish you all the goodness...

it is like being programmed that it always snows on Christmas and new year here. I wonder if there is some technology to make it snow on these days. It is possible they shoot something into the sky to freeze water drops.

Yes it is already the first, 12:44 pm


I like cold, but just for two weeks, max a month, so I can wear my Italian gear, it is warm here, waiting for lunch…..there is bit of wind, great fresh air….

I have to be honest, I am bit ashamed with myself, I did some work this morning, backtesting a new idea candle by candle, but I just love working, I love my work…..I need to get away soon…….

waiting for lunch? so you live somewhere in pacific ocean? East Asia or east part of Russia.

Yes, it is summer here. PM sent.

I don't drink anymore as I use to, just a bit of wine with food and sometime beer, I like scotch also, laphroaif and glenfiddich. Jack Daniels is not that quality orientated but I like the buzz..

Got it. Thanks. Im in Chicago. Same place as attila