EURUSD

^^^ LOL


Following the trend is indeed no guarantee of success, but, used in conjunction with a good trading system (which are very rare), it does indeed increase your odds of doing well.

As far as avoiding a massive reversal, well-placed stops can help minimize your risk.

PS -- HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Hi Magix,

I really try to tone it down now, since the whole aspect of the discussion is important for trading.

See, in your rebuttal of my posting you say things like "my actual idea", "from my perspective", "it does not exist", "it is a unicorn", etc. etc.

Problem with this is: it is all out of your perspective, out of your assumption, etc. You also claimed, that Mzvega did not provide evidence or reference for statements, which was quickly rebutted by her. I too gave some study from Credit Suisse, and a quick google by yourself would have set you in picture, that HFT and Algotrading makes now a big part of Forex. I will come to that later.

The main problem here is: info given to you is not reflected by you.


You claim, that FFleo makes worthless statements by implying, that it was a stop hunt. But at the same time your arguments are flawed too and prone to "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy.

When I stepped in, telling you, that stop hunts work in both directions, I did not imply in the first place, that it was a stop hunt. I think I made that point with several mails clear and also provided some fundamental reasonings. Yet, it seems, you do not get that argument, and keep on arguing with me, even by changing the subject to trend trading and counter trend trading.

Now you are claiming, that I can not proof my claim, that it could have been a stop hunt. But again, I only supported FFLeo by giving an argument, that against your claim SL hunting works in both directions. I even said, that momentum ignition is one technique of many to achieve this. I also told, when I remember, that this can be fabricated not only through HFT but also through use of "simple" algo-trading (for example a technique called "gunning the market" (manipulation of stop orders)) (consider algo-trading as the slower brother of HFT algo trading). It was not about if it happened through, it was about that it is possible to see a SL hunt in direction of trend. So I have to proof nothing.

But when you are long enough around and have read into the HFT and Algo-tactics a bit, you will see, that it requires more than a retail access to build up the evidence for that.

You are blaming me for putting my head in the sand, when it is in fact you who is not open for arguments. You have shown over and over again, that only your own arguments count, and the other side is simply ridiculed.

Stating, that the real subject , for all intents and purposes, is that FFLeo is a moron, clearly shows your weakness not only in your arguments but also in your person. But I leave it at that........


So you asked me a few questions and I will answer them:

1. Did I provide proof that market has been measured on more than a single occasion by a moving average cross, prior to the December Spike?

Unfortunately, you have proven nothing from a statistical point of view. You only came up with some arbitrary occasions, where it fitted your assumption. If you need help with statistics, I can help

2. Did I show technical evidence of this on the chart upon request?

Yes, you did show charts, where your assumptions fitted. Since you looked for the fitting occurrences, you surly can tell us, how often it fitted in the last 15 years and how often not, can you?

3. Was the market moving "In Trend", or "Out of Trend"?

Depends on the TF. Since you mentioned that you look at the 1min Chart at the time given regarding your EMA 20/200 it depends on when to look at that chart. As MZVega already posted, market was before/since the FOMC not really in uptrend but more in kind of search for direction. Especially in the 380 area, which was rejection area for some time before, it was not clear if a top was in or not.

If we talk about higher TF and determine trend by trend or channel lines, or MA's, well, the uptrend was not broken. But you know: a trend is a trend until it is not.

Fact is: especially the 380 area and somewhat below was defended as can be seen by volume footprint/ volume distribution

4. Do you have any proof that Stop Hunts are a regular part of the Forex Market? To that I add your assumptions, that the whole HFT thing is a "unicorn" in FX markets

I have proof, that HFT and Algotrading accounts now for roughly 40% of the Forex market, and the tendency is up.

for example:

http://blogs.lmax.com/business-and-t...40-fx-trading/


In the following article the estimation is around 30%

http://forexmagnates.com/the-evolvin...y-trading-ebs/


HFT techniques are often seen as disruptive and unfair, so that even EBS is considering kind of limitations:

http://forexmagnates.com/the-evolvin...y-trading-ebs/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...97M0YJ20130823



HFT Caught-Red Handed In FX Trading


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...ded-fx-trading




HFT liquidity goes phantom again


http://www.euromoney.com/Article/324...tom-again.html


I will stop it here, since I think that I delivered proof enough, that the unicorn is alive.......

Face it, it is almost there, and you had no hazy notion of it.



In 2011 the Bank of International Settlements published the following study

http://www.bis.org/publ/mktc05.pdf or here directly: Attachment

the whole paper is full of valuable information about the impact of HFT in FX


In the introduction we can find the following:

The assessment of HFT is often hampered by difficulties in identifying this particular type of activity, which is, at times, hard to distinguish from other types of automated (but not high-frequency) trading. There is a lack of reliable data and analysis on the prevalence of HFT as distinct from other forms of automated electronic trading.

Yes, studies in this field are at the moment extremely rare and data obtaining is very hard. So we have to live with that what we have.


Regarding HFT tunover, they wrote:

A similar calculation using data from the North American (FXC) and UK (FXJSC) surveys could yield more geographically plausible proxies. In all cases, the resulting figures turn out to be about 24–30% of spot turnover, in line with market participants’ estimates.

This was with data from 2010.


Of special interest is chapter 3.2 JPY move on 17 March 2011 which adresses the topic of SL hunt (which was done in direction of trend)

Early in the morning of 17 March, USD/JPY declined by some 300 pips from around ¥79.50 to below ¥76.50 in just 25 minutes between 05:55 and 06:20 Tokyo time (16:55–17:20 New York time on 16 March). This move was in part linked to the compulsory stop-loss trades for retail FX margin traders executed by the retail aggregators.26 The background and timing of the episode are notable in three ways:
• It occurred against a backdrop of historic-high levels of net long USD/JPY positions among Japanese retail FX margin traders, who tend to invest with a contrarian view (USD had been depreciating against JPY for a while).
• It occurred during a less liquid part of the global trading day, at the end of the US session and before the Asia session was fully open.
It coincided with the time of the day when many OTC retail aggregators have their scheduled system halts to run the batching process to prepare for the next day and to calculate clients’ margins for regulatory purposes. Four of the five largest retail aggregators in Japan have system pauses between 05:45 and 06:10 Tokyo time.


Since SL hunts are a often practiced method in stock markets, where HFT volume is between 50% and 60% , I do not see a problem, why it should not be done regularly in FX markets with a HFT volume between 30 and 40%, especially on days with low volatility and/or volume.



See chapter 1.3 in order to learn, who the HFT are.

snipset:

HFT participants in FX are mostly specialised independent firms that currently tend to trade only on their own account. Market contacts suggest that several large and better capitalised players account for the bulk of FX HFT volume. There are also a large number of small HFT firms with more limited capital. As noted above, some of these HFT players in FX have evolved from high-frequency trading in equities. Others have been developed by existing FX specialists that have decided to move into the HFT space. A few banks also conduct some HFT in proprietary trading, but they are not major players in this particular space and do not see HFT as an important trend for their business. Rather, they see this as a way to keep up with the technology, which may have positive externalities for their overall FX business


Some tactics of HFT algos are described in the work of the Credit Suisse, which I provided earlier here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post7181518


5. Have I proven with technical information all of my claims?

Isn't that a redundant question in light of your question 1 and 2? Yes, you showed some charts



But then again: have you proved that FFLeo was wrong? Even when we assume that there would be a chance that you are right by, say, 60-70%, how high would be the probability that you are wrong? And how high is the probability, that FFleo is right or wrong? Or me, by having simply stated, that fabricated SL hunts in Forex do work in trending as well as countertrending markets?



The two sentences after your questions in your letter are worth a look:


You wrote:


The logical assumption from answering these questions, is that I am correct.

You are frustrated because you are ineffectively defending a troll, without any, and I mean without a SINGLE SHRED of evidence to counter any single point that I have made.


Fucking unbelievable.....


If I may give you an advice:


It is better to be silent and thought to be a fool, than to open the mouth and eliminate every doubt



So now let us repeat:

Infinitus told you, that FFLeo COULD be right by assuming SL hunt, because SL hunt can be fabricated by HFT (for example momentum ignition) or Algo-trading (for example "gunning the market") in direction of trend as well as against trend (especially in low volume, low volatility).

I have provided ample information, that HFT and Algo-Trading in Forex market exist (to that level, that some consider it as disruptive) and is not a unicorn.

I also provided studies about the techniques being used as well as to the impact of HFT on the FX market.

I also showed evidence of a well documented SL hunt, that additionally was fabricated in direction of trend.


I have never in my prior postings made the assumption, that you arbitrary observations are wrong or without merit. I simply asked for statistical evidence, which can be very easily delivered for this kind of data.


Happy New Year

Garrye, let me know if you want any help with your pre-wwf championship bout speech. I am looking forward to making some money on the bets and for this a good speech is a must.

Well ……we all have to create our little island to save ourself in this huge sea of uncertainty….. A save retracement "on my island" is when, it is orderly (making LH's and LL's) against the trend, and should not be more then 3 bars, that signifies to me that the retracement is due to taking profit more then traders taken the opposite direction, in a strong trend it is very rarely that the recent high will not be tested again, if the RR does make sense at that recent high if revisit, that is a good edge, keeping in mind that there is a good chance that the trend will continue above the recent high, in the mean time partial profit are taken…..

One has to look not only at the trend but also at the retracement for clues, if the retracement is not orderly, one has to be able to distinguish: congestions, range and so on and wait for further BO or clues in either direction to take a stand….

EDIT: if you go to the daily on EU, You will use the large bar of 3 days ago, I will use that bar as measuring bar, when each of the following 4 consecutive bars have at least an open or a close in between that bar I will not touch that instrument till it is broken one side or the other, which is a congestion that can also develop into range.

Chicky, V+, whot happened? You small island fella for wall street fook. Let 2014 be the green as you walk on..

If this is what Infitus told me, who the fuck are you?

jason w i wait for retail to be 70% long/short and take the other side im the guy at the end of magdicks stops no charts orderflow and data needed only no ma,s needed

No you're not.

You are a Smack TALKING FOOL!

Talking shit....meaning nothing...

You guys have WAY too much time on your hands.

pro prick with no balls utter bollox he posts so he makes alot of worthless posts big deal trading is about making money not being right on a forum of the lost

utter coward u make the rules my one is only it must be live account and we can all see how good u are not

My breed cannot and shall not allow blanket of darkness be removed. Low profiling is intergral part of our business. The most talented one of us is not who successfully concludes the job, but the one who lives and doesn't exist.

I'd go with a simple TL;DR on this, but I kinda read it...am really just a little too drunk to reply as would be fitting....

I'm not going to apologize for that. However, I do get the jist.

You look at empirical data, and dispute it because it is not statistically analysed and documented.
Because I trip off the M1 charts, you believe I have no ability to perspectively view anything other.
You have provided published data that is under the assumption that you are correct.

BUT

Drunk as I am...You have FAILED, HORRIBLY, at proving I am wrong.

Sorry son, or son(s) as it seems to be.

You haven't done anything but waste what could be the better part of your new year, chasing unicorns.

FAIL

lol

I'm neither a coward nor a fool.

Step up to my challenge, motherfucker...then we can talk about yours.

Deal?

Outfitus?

just want to shut the muppet up chicky only way i know to make a bigger fool of him than he already is by wiping the floor with live trading

pm sent anytime cowboy

Poetry…..A touch of magic…….

while im sat on a nice beach chilling on newyears day your drunk and alone on the net picking fights sad man ,i do feel sorry for you