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  • #866,621
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:26pm Dec 30, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Open the H1 time frame and look left - price was fighting a battle just to stay above 1.375 and at 1.38 edge. Now its simply walking all the way towards 1.38 with no bears left to fight! Everyone and his dogs are short to the ground on 1.38 - still price is standing still ... this tells me one thing: The soldiers are either dead or fighting some where else ... If i was to join this rally, quite simple : above 1.378X its a buy, under it is a sell .. simple as that ! {quote} Without 0.90 the Aussie is going no where ...

No where but down you mean
  • #866,622
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:27pm Dec 30, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looks like it's going to retest 1.3750 area in the next 12h or so
3765 is the barrier to cross. If it can reach 3750, it will likely keep going down.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,623
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:28pm Dec 30, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting Faller
{quote} Will be interesting to see how the price develops after the huge rejection @ the 1.39 level - I watch price action, I am technical, but I understand and am fully aware of fundies - Depending on your leverage and depending on when you had the insight to take a short - there is definite risk reward to be comfortable with. If just long.....where is your comfort zone? Do you just keep wishing, hoping, thinking that 1.39 was not the high and it should go higher? Trade safe ~ Faller.
Hey Faller, no hopes no praying for underwater position no nothing ... pure reason and observation ! The number is 1.378X and i don't think it will be breached again , the range should moving between 1.38 and 1.39 and we stay there for sometime. There is only one problem, there isn't much time left ... but definitely worth the risk , when price comes near 1.369X and stops for sometime ! ( This is where the actual b/o happened)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #866,624
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:32pm Dec 30, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Hey Faller, no hopes no praying for underwater position no nothing ... pure reason and observation ! The number is 1.378X and i don't think it will be breached again , the range should moving between 1.38 and 1.39 and we stay there for sometime. There is only one problem, there isn't much time left ... but definitely worth the risk , when price comes near 1.369X and stops for sometime ! ( This is where the actual b/o happened)
the problem is lots of retails short it and with TIGHT STOPS. Tight stops will be hunted easily and will add fuel to the up move.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,625
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:36pm Dec 30, 2013 2:36pm
Howzit screen addicts!

EU 1H

Triangle (bearish - counter trend) I would not take the short but perhaps this suggests a pull back to 1.378xx as an opportunity to join long.

Note that EU banks (fundamentally) need to repatriate fund... As such must buy EU... for now till mid Jan (don't buck the trend)

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #866,626
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:37pm Dec 30, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the problem is lots of retails short it and with TIGHT STOPS. Tight stops will be hunted easily and will add fuel to the up move.
That spike on lasy friday from 3820 up was mostly due to stop hunt.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,627
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:41pm Dec 30, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That spike on lasy friday from 3820 up was mostly due to stop hunt.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AL16820111122
  • #866,628
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:58pm Dec 30, 2013 2:58pm
BS! Be very wary of an unwinding of EURTRY carry trade
  • #866,629
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:03pm Dec 30, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the problem is lots of retails short it and with TIGHT STOPS. Tight stops will be hunted easily and will add fuel to the up move.
Personally, I don't like anything tight................ How do you define a tight sl?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #866,630
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:07pm Dec 30, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Personally, I don't like anything tight................ How do you define a tight sl?
as tight as 10 pips to 20 pips.
with 10 pips sl, can you target 50 pips or 100 pips? how often your sl will be hit before your target?

So your sl of 10 pips hit before your target of 30 pips or 50 pips. You try another time, and you sl 10 pips hit again before your 30 pips target. Try again hit again. Why you sl get hit so often? because your sls are too tight, and your target are too far away. Statistically price movement will hit things first that are closer.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,631
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:17pm Dec 30, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} as tight as 10 pips to 20 pips. with 10 pips sl, can you target 50 pips or 100 pips? how often your sl will be hit before your target? So your sl of 10 pips hit before your target of 30 pips or 50 pips. You try another time, and you sl 10 pips hit again before your 30 pips target. Try again hit again. Why you sl get hit so often? because your sls are too tight, and your target are too far away. Statistically price movement will hit things first that are closer.
also at clear technical levels such as big number 3800, 3850. You can be sure there are stops at 3790, 3810, and 3840 and 3860, basicaly retail stops of 10 to 20 pips on both side of the big numbers.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,632
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:17pm Dec 30, 2013 3:17pm
EURUSD is in no hurry. As long as it is trending downwards, a better trade would be to short AUDUSD at this level, given aussie session is opening soon. I am short @8910.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #866,633
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:19pm Dec 30, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting mitrapips
EURUSD is in no hurry. As long as it is trending downwards, a better trade would be to short AUDUSD at this level, given aussie session is opening soon. I am short @8910.
yup, short aussie when it made a double bottom on daily.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,634
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:22pm Dec 30, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting mitrapips
EURUSD is in no hurry. As long as it is trending downwards, a better trade would be to short AUDUSD at this level, given aussie session is opening soon. I am short @8910.
hum hum. Are you sure ? Please reconsider.
And Banks are closed tomorrow or tonight you prefer. No hurry to short or buy anything.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #866,635
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:22pm Dec 30, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That spike on lasy friday from 3820 up was mostly due to stop hunt.

A spike down would have been a stop hunt.

The spike up, is trend.

Learn to recognize direction, you will come out sounding less like a moron.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #866,636
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:24pm Dec 30, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} yup, short aussie when it made a double bottom on daily.

Could say EU had a double top on daily at 1.38, the people that went long 1.37 other day when it went up 200 pips were really dumb huh? haha.
  • #866,637
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:26pm Dec 30, 2013 3:26pm
Like this...

TREND!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rejection.png Size: 34 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #866,638
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:29pm Dec 30, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} hum hum. Are you sure ? Please reconsider. And Banks are closed tomorrow or tonight you prefer. No hurry to short or buy anything.
You sure banks in australia are closed today? I was thinking of the session that is coming up. It is closed in Japan though. Regardless, I am in it for the high octane quick pips. Check out 15m
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #866,639
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:30pm Dec 30, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} You sure banks in australia are closed today? I was thinking of the session that is coming up. It is closed in Japan though. Regardless, I am in it for the high octane quick pips. Check out 15m

Yes momentum on M15 and H1 looks bad. I'm in too.
  • #866,640
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:30pm Dec 30, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} You sure banks in australia are closed today? I was thinking of the session that is coming up. It is closed in Japan though. Regardless, I am in it for the high octane quick pips. Check out 15m
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

CAN'T check charts. Closed everything related to trading.

GL.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
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