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Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading 81 replies

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Long term Vs Short Term Trading

  • #41
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:41pm Dec 17, 2013 12:41pm
I have been doing very well with short term trades on the 5m and 15m lately. Just plot a 20 & 50 ema and use your instincts. After enough screen time, good instincts develop naturally.
  • #42
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:35pm Dec 17, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting Mnmlst_Trdr
I have been doing very well with short term trades on the 5m and 15m lately. Just plot a 20 & 50 ema and use your instincts. After enough screen time, good instincts develop naturally.
all entries are 50/50 essentially, and this approach will work well, but, beware the bad day, with such an unstructured approach emotions can quickly come into play and spiral out of control. Less likely to happen with a longer TF.
tradewith60
  • #43
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:51pm Dec 17, 2013 1:51pm
of course short term is most profitable
  • #44
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:07am Dec 18, 2013 2:07am
  • #45
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:15am Dec 18, 2013 2:15am
Quoting PoundTrader
Long term vs. the short term, which one is better to invest in? This is a question that is very debated. witch one do you prefer and why?
I do not know any living person (I know a lot) that will say - "I made millions in short-term and day-trading" - 99% are failing in 3-5 yrs. But I've met traders in banks/financial institutions that do only strategic FX trading (6 - 18 months horizon, low or no leverage with heavy and complex hedging) that do portfolios between 15 and 60% yearly. Enough to say. Minute-trading with retail terminal is a joke - so many machines are competing against you.
  • #46
  • Dec 18, 2013 7:03am Dec 18, 2013 7:03am
Quoting Mnmlst_Trdr
I have been doing very well with short term trades on the 5m and 15m lately. Just plot a 20 & 50 ema and use your instincts. After enough screen time, good instincts develop naturally.
I used to trade that way, on instinct, until I had some prolonged periods where I just could not connect with the market. That led to me trying too hard and that led to more losers, and losses, than winners. I do have occasions when my gut tells me to trade, and usually if I take that trade it is a winner.


Quoting Forexgogo
A short terms -- 95% 15m, 5% 1h. Trade only pairs with a spread less than 2 pips. Reasons -- Targeting at small swings that come and go a few times a day. Usually TP=25pips SL=10pips fixed. Why not longer terms? -- Since I lost my faith in the market structure (ie, technical analysis/price action patterns), I'm afraid of keeping a position more than 6 hours. I have very little idea about the future price 6 hours from now. Even when I have some idea about it, I don't want to put down my hard earned money on that filmy assumption. This principle works...
This year I moved to long term trading. I open a position with low leverage and just wait, of course I also have a TP in mind.
Two good things came out of this; I can sleep fine with open trades that are under water, and I have been profitable mostly the whole year.


Fundamental analysis drives longer TF trading. You are going for 50 pips minimum, and usually 200 or more.
The market patterns are still there, and I still pick entries and exits on support and resistance, and bounces off trendlines.
The good thing about long TF is that there is plenty of time for posting here and you need to keep up with the market drivers which means a lot of reading and listening to BB and Draghi etc.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47
  • Dec 18, 2013 7:35am Dec 18, 2013 7:35am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} I used to trade that way, on instinct, until I had some prolonged periods where I just could not connect with the market. That led to me trying too hard and that led to more losers, and losses, than winners. I do have occasions when my gut tells me to trade, and usually if I take that trade it is a winner. {quote} This year I moved to long term trading. I open a position with low leverage and just wait, of course I also have a TP in mind. Two good things came out of this; I can sleep fine with open trades that are under water, and I have...

Exodus

You're well on your way to be a successful trader.
  • #48
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:21am Dec 18, 2013 8:21am
Quoting Exodus
{quote}I can sleep fine with open trades that are under water, and I have been profitable mostly the whole year.
That sounds great! If it suits you, that's is your way of trading. Keep going on.
  • #49
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:13am Dec 18, 2013 11:13am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Exodus You're well on your way to be a successful trader.
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} That sounds great! If it suits you, that's is your way of trading. Keep going on.

Thanks
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #50
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:42am Dec 18, 2013 11:42am
There should be a "Both" option.
  • #51
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:54am Dec 30, 2013 1:54am
Quoting hello2u
There should be a "Both" option.
your right, i guess i wasn't thinking
  • #52
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:18am Dec 30, 2013 2:18am
Quoting hello2u
There should be a "Both" option.
don't get clever, you'll be unwelcome on FF !!!
tradewith60
  • #53
  • Edited 3:00am Dec 30, 2013 2:42am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting hello2u
There should be a "Both" option.
Believe that we should learn both long and short term.
Defination: Long > 1 day; Short < 1 day.
Long = Eye close (over day, week or month, mostly dont set SL; bet is light; accumulate to win)
Short = Eye open (close within day with SL; bet is heavy; win or loss)
Heavy : Light = 8 : 1
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #54
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:50am Dec 30, 2013 2:50am
Unable to vote, it dont allow to vote both.
Long = RR per month < 25%
Short = RR per month > 100%
The figures set above are just base on my personal opinion/experience. So, set yours as appropriate.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #55
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:54am Dec 30, 2013 3:54am
i choose short term.. my heart doesnt strong enough to follow the prices for full day.. either, enjoy your life bro..
ya Rabbi sholli ala Muhammad
  • #56
  • Dec 30, 2013 4:35am Dec 30, 2013 4:35am
Long term trading requires serious analysis with a high level of conviction, normally motivators will be based around political or economic conditions anticipated in the future. The pay off for longer term trading I would say can be greater due to this and the size of the moves involved but the levels of patience and discipline required to maintain to this approach over a series of months makes it difficult to implement for most.

Short term trading is very random, if your edge does exist... it can very quickly be eliminated by events across the globe negating your reasons for entry. I'd say short term trading is best suited to news trading but again that strategy doesn't come without it's difficulties.

I honestly think a trader has to disregard time frame, when an opportunity presents itself a trader should seize the moment and not give so much importance to what candlestick pattern or time frame to enter on... although some suggest having a time exit (when to conclude you are wrong and exit the idea) which makes sense to me.
  • #57
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:14am Dec 30, 2013 6:14am
Quoting TranceTrader
I honestly think a trader has to disregard time frame, when an opportunity presents itself a trader should seize the moment and not give so much importance to what candlestick pattern or time frame to enter on...
Hmm. Not sure I would want to go short on the m15 TF when all the higher TF's are trending/pushing higher. Yes, you could get a few pips out of your trade, but it seems like you'd be setting yourself up for it to go against you. I trade on m15/m30 but consider H1 and longer to see whether they are trending in the reverse (or not at all).

Quoting TranceTrader
... although some suggest having a time exit (when to conclude you are wrong and exit the idea) which makes sense to me.
I was initially going to say you probably wouldn't want to time your exit, as that seems to be forcing the market to move your way both for price AND in a specific time frame. However, I then considered that perhaps you might want to see the market move in your direction in a reasonable time and if not, it might make you re-think whether the trade was actually a good one. Given enough time (and having neither a win/loss for the trade), the previous indication for the trade might weaken and thus negate the quality of the signal and suggest removing the trade (at a minor win/loss result) might be the better option.

I'd be curious to hear from anyone who does time their trades and find out how they estimate a good 'trade window', how they thought it helped them avoid bad trades, etc.
  • #58
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:37pm Dec 30, 2013 3:37pm
It's holiday season etc. so maybe any responses from me will be sporadic until the children are back at school.
Quoting Nefser
.... I'd be curious to hear from anyone who does time their trades and find out how they estimate a good 'trade window', how they thought it helped them avoid bad trades, etc.
This is exactly what I was doing around 18 months ago. I was watching market open and pre-open on some pairs.
For instance my notes indicate that on some Tuesdays you might go short E/U at 12:45 GMT and close at 13:28 GMT.
After a while it became apparent that the entry could be brought forward to 11:30 GMT in some instances. DYOR.

I have also been watching other market inflexions, but I'm not going to talk/write about them here because there are too many lurkers from the likes of GS. I don't trade the E/U inflexion any more, I switched trading style to long.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #59
  • Edited 6:24am Dec 31, 2013 5:21am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting Nefser
Hmm. Not sure I would want to go short on the m15 TF when all the higher TF's are trending/pushing higher. Yes, you could get a few pips out of your trade, but it seems like you'd be setting yourself up for it to go against you. I trade on m15/m30 but consider H1 and longer to see whether they are trending in the reverse (or not at all).
It's subjective to how important you think time frames are below the daily. When I used solely technical analysis in my trading, I used to pay attention to higher tf's when trading the lower tf's because all the material I'd covered until then had indicated that you shouldn't trade against the 1H & 4H if you're trading the 15m/30m which borrowed some sense from the old adage don't trade against the trend so I let it pass as wisdom.

Today however, I'm not as convinced by that wisdom, if you consider that all moves have to start from the lower tf's to progress into visible moves in the higher tf's then disregarding a signal or movement in the lower tf's because it contradicts previous movement in the higher tf's is not a very sensible approach in my opinion. You're essentially trying to use the past to predict the future and negate the current in the hope that the existing theme will prevail and go against (contradict) the current or the lower tf movement... but how can this always be so when it's the lower tf's that shows the origin of ALL moves and themes? To disregard the lower tf in favour of the higher tf is analogous to believing that when the clouds begin to grey, rain won't come because the sun was out earlier. Does this sound sensible to you?

Timeframes and their usefulness are down to personal opinion, I hardly pay attention to them any more as I find waiting for the charts to line up before seizing an opportunity doesn't help my trading but that's just me and where I'm at. Two years ago I would of told you the opposite so stick with your own approach but consider the point above as it may be of use to you at some point.
  • #60
  • Jan 1, 2014 5:01am Jan 1, 2014 5:01am
Quoting TranceTrader
{quote} It's subjective to how important you think time frames are below the daily. When I used solely technical analysis in my trading, I used to pay attention to higher tf's when trading the lower tf's because all the material I'd covered until then had indicated that you shouldn't trade against the 1H & 4H if you're trading the 15m/30m which borrowed some sense from the old adage don't trade against the trend so I let it pass as wisdom. Today however, I'm not as convinced by that wisdom, if you consider that all moves have to start from the lower...
After re-reading this post and the one prior, it seems you are contradicting yourself a bit. It would be helpful to know what TF's you find to be relevant and useful to trade (ignoring trading news) and if you honestly will just pick a TF (only daily?), wait until you see a signal and then put on a trade without checking the higher and lower TF's? With technology making it so easy to review various TF's and compare them, it seems odd to specifically avoid doing that comparison. It's almost like not wanting to see whether the higher or lower TF's contradict your trade plan.


You also stated that "It's subjective to how important you think time frames are below the daily." but then you added
"...it's the lower TF's that shows the origin of ALL moves..."
and
"...all moves have to start from the lower TF's to progress into visible moves in the higher TF's..."

So - is it just subjective or do the lower TF's have a direct relation to their respective higher TF's? Do the H1 and H4 have value to show how D1 is being built or not? Is it just subjective to use the lower TF's or are they not the core basis of how the D1 and higher TF's are generated? Or did you mean M1 and/or M5 should be disregarded? I don't understand how you feel about this.


For me, I don't need the TF's to "line up" in some sort of astronomical configuration of the planets, but I do like to use them as a reference (but nothing lower than m15 as I find it too noisy) to keep me from suffering from tunnel vision. Example: you notice a downward move in M5 and/or M15 and it might signal a sell, but seeing that H1 and/or H4 have just pushed upward past some level/signal and might only be retracing, it makes me hesitate, as the overall trend is up and I'd probably be better off waiting for further confirmation of the downward move (such as M30 being turned downward as well) before considering the sell trade. Or at least be prepared for my sell trade to turn against me. (Note: if you only trade off a specific TF for short/quick trades and small pips, then that's a very specific style of trading and obviously very focused on just the current smaller TF's.)


As for "Timeframes and their usefulness are down to personal opinion...", well yes, this applies to all the aspects of trading elements, so it doesn't help throwing that out as some sort of balancing argument. ;-)


Your weather analogy is a bit awkward as well. If we're talking about variances of different time periods and weather patterns, perhaps we should consider wind patterns that have been generally to the nw for the last few hours/days. Yet for the last few m15 periods, it's shifted w, then to sw; so do we loft a balloon and plan for it to land w/sw of us, or do we wait till it at least turns w again before letting it go and heading nw to where it is more likely(?) to land?


Lastly, all we ever have to work with is old data to 'predict' where the market is heading so "You're essentially trying to use the past to predict the future..." is correct, because it's all we can do. Not sure what other data (newer?) you are privy to, but if you're not using your Tardis for the next few weeks, I wouldn't mind borrowing it. (Btw, it is safe to lend it to me, as if you jump even further ahead in time, you can see I made a fair bit of money, returned your Tardis and bought my own.)
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