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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #356,841
  • Dec 29, 2013 11:45pm Dec 29, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} the upside has been huge, correction? i thought last week about our chat, was expecting were very profitable for you caused the market went your way, for me also was very profitable as put some strong shorts and closed them as price action eased downside.
The correction happened for the 3 previous weeks as price refused to close above the 38.2 fib.
A small correction to around 6395 or so is what I see before this wind up continues.
Judging by the long upper wicks of the previous 3 weeks that have now been overcome, The cork has popped, pressure released, now let the champaign flow...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #356,842
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:13am Dec 30, 2013 1:13am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} No idea why we need to see 1.61 Last week closed nicely above the main 38.2 fib for the highest weekly/daily close of the year and can't see price breaking below 1.62 anytime soon. I see some good daily support and 50 fib around 6395
Okay 1.61xx is quite far, but it is reachable. I wouldn't bet any money on it coz it's a counter trend trade, but I would certainly buy big if we went that low. Yes 63xx would be a good place to load up more longs.

Anyway, to answer your question, it's about cycles. The top is a bit stretched and price needs to exhale before inhaling again.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,843
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:26am Dec 30, 2013 1:26am
Quoting rambo12
{quote} Good day sir ..Need some advise here . is it possible to break 1.6578 before any correction at least 1.6380 .I am having some shorts at 1.6380 wanna close with min loss . I cannot hold them till 1.66(almost margin call) ..Should I need to hedge?? thanks in advance
I think we will see around 1.67 before correction... and in thin markets, it's even possible to see higher before we get a correction. So, if I were in your situation I would take advantage of this dip and buy.

However, it's your account and your strategy, so whatever you do is at your own risk.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,844
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:32am Dec 30, 2013 1:32am
Nice to see more folks going long
More the better!
8 shorts here

On my BB system GU is in sell zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 38 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #356,845
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:40am Dec 30, 2013 1:40am
Quoting Davit
Nice to see more folks going long More the better! 8 shorts here On my BB system GU is in sell zone. {image}

According to this website only 32% are long.
  • #356,846
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:44am Dec 30, 2013 1:44am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} According to this website only 32% are long.

I think we will see more retail switching long which is nice for Bears.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #356,847
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:45am Dec 30, 2013 1:45am
Quoting Davit
Nice to see more folks going long More the better! 8 shorts here On my BB system GU is in sell zone. {image}
Davit. I am sure you will get out of your shorts with a nice profit once we see that correction, but the trend (for now anyway) is up. No doubt there.

Anyway, this was the retail crowd situation at dailyfx.com on Friday...

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.92 as 20% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.04; 20% of open positions were long. Long positions are 6.3% lower than yesterday and 13.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 9.2% lower than yesterday and 1.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.6% lower than yesterday and 11.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,848
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:51am Dec 30, 2013 1:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Davit. I am sure you will get out of your shorts with a nice profit once we see that correction, but the trend (for now anyway) is up. No doubt there. Anyway, this was the retail crowd situation at dailyfx.com on Friday... GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.92 as 20% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.04; 20% of open positions were long. Long positions are 6.3% lower than yesterday and 13.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 9.2% lower than yesterday and 1.1% below levels...

I agree with you that before further up we will get a correction.Real trading will start in Jan2014
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #356,849
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:56am Dec 30, 2013 1:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay 1.61xx is quite far, but it is reachable. I wouldn't bet any money on it coz it's a counter trend trade, but I would certainly buy big if we went that low. Yes 63xx would be a good place to load up more longs. Anyway, to answer your question, it's about cycles. The top is a bit stretched and price needs to exhale before inhaling again.
Price went up for 4 weeks, broke the multi year descending TL, exhaled for 3 weeks to retest it and is now going north again.
In short, the correction has occurred and I now see a massacre coming.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #356,850
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:00am Dec 30, 2013 2:00am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Price went up for 4 weeks, broke the multi year descending TL, exhaled for 3 weeks to retest it and is now going north again. In short, the correction has occurred and I now see a massacre coming.

When I look back in time over GU I don't see many massacres up or down (With one exception bringing us down to the area we've been in the last several years).

P.S. What does TL stand for?
  • #356,851
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:02am Dec 30, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Price went up for 4 weeks, broke the multi year descending TL, exhaled for 3 weeks to retest it and is now going north again. In short, the correction has occurred and I now see a massacre coming.
Either way works for me, but I cannot ignore the divergences on the daily chart. They tell me that a correction is not far off and therefore to be cautious with aggressive longs. I guess you can say I'm being conservative.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,852
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:03am Dec 30, 2013 2:03am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} When I look back in time over GU I don't see many massacres up or down (With one exception bringing us down to the area we've been in the last several years). P.S. What does TL stand for?
good morning tl is trend line
  • #356,853
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:22am Dec 30, 2013 2:22am
Quoting Davit
Nav Are you still hanging on those early shorts?
Yes..... Should I close it.......? OR wait?
  • #356,854
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:32am Dec 30, 2013 2:32am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} When I look back in time over GU I don't see many massacres up or down (With one exception bringing us down to the area we've been in the last several years). P.S. What does TL stand for?
That's because after the dramatic crisis fall, cable has been consolidating for 4 years beneath the TL if have shown.
we have now broken north of, closed above and retested this TL.
When price breaks free of a long term containment, it doesn't often spend much time looking back and can be quite explosive.
We are also shaping up for a near perfect ABCD monthly pattern on the monthly from the 1.48 low to 1.73 confluence with the 50 fib and retest of monthly TL we broke on our way down early in the year.
I can't show chart as on phone and heading out to see a client.

All the best guys.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #356,855
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:36am Dec 30, 2013 2:36am
I think cable might want to top at 1.6744 ish but this would take us over the weekly trend line of 1.6670 ???? i think also we might have to watch 1.6500 for now a break there i will long with tight stop.
  • #356,856
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:50am Dec 30, 2013 2:50am
OMG ..so we cannot see 1.6390 until it hit 1.673 ...damn .
  • #356,857
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:24am Dec 30, 2013 3:24am
Quoting rambo12
OMG ..so we cannot see 1.6390 until it hit 1.673 ...damn .
there is a move on the 15min chart that might be o f interest it has come off the 1.6500 twice now
  • #356,858
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:43am Dec 30, 2013 3:43am
lol .Bad stuck with sell positions. first time in my trading history( I followed someones advice and took shorts blindly no techs no fundas but I am not blaming him ..that was my own decision )since I trade on gold n silver ,rarely trade on fx pairs anyhow ..thanks for the advise guys
  • #356,859
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:56am Dec 30, 2013 3:56am
Quoting rambo12
OMG ..so we cannot see 1.6390 until it hit 1.673 ...damn .
.
I would not say "CANNOT". There is no such thing in this business.
However, chances are that we see 1.67 first, and then a correction which "MAY" take us as low as 1.61xx

There is also a chance that we may run into psych resistance at 1.6500 and drop down to 1.6400 before we push higher. If so, you will be able to exit with a very small loss, but there are no guarantees.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,860
  • Dec 30, 2013 4:03am Dec 30, 2013 4:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} . I would not say "CANNOT". There is no such thing in this business. However, chances are that we see 1.67 first, and then a correction which "MAY" take us as low as 1.61xx

Yes .of course but since you are a tiger trader ..been watching your views were correct 90% ..so I'm bit worried about my positions
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