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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #356,601
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:54am Dec 20, 2013 9:54am
Quoting Chris Corben
UK Current account far worse than the estimate. Previous revisions show false figures released - The stats office somehow managed to miscalculate by 6.3bn UK borrowing higher than expected. But here we are with a rising GBP in the US session. Stop hunting perhaps? The strong GBP will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on the exports, yet the UK government seems quite happy to allow it to appreciate. hmmmm
i have been saying the same thing,unless the big boys are sucking in all the money and we see a big drop which most of us expect, i dont know as i said before it a big game, ?
  • #356,602
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:56am Dec 20, 2013 9:56am
i was short 1.6407 should of took proit but hey ho here we go again need to get rid of that big green 4 hr candle quickly but we know cable can do it
  • #356,603
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:56am Dec 20, 2013 9:56am
nice profit taking (also brokers sl $$$) from abroad investors, nice to see how the yen gains as the market rises,
shorting big from every rally.
  • #356,604
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:14am Dec 20, 2013 10:14am
Seems to be a pretty large battle here between bulls and bears.

If we head down below the weekly and monthly trend line (That we bounced off of the other night) then I'd say that's a solid signal that the bears won.

If we get up and stay up over the 6400 line, maybe even as high as 6450, then the bulls win.

I don't expect either to happen before the weekend. Maybe next week.
  • #356,605
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:15am Dec 20, 2013 10:15am
Quoting cat
I think the next push down to around 34/30 may well give a very good long opportunity, but it must come down - depends how price reacts.
came down a bit more than I thought, and harder than I expected, but that's cable for you, a wild mistress for sure. Hope some of you caught the move of the day.
  • #356,606
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:19am Dec 20, 2013 10:19am
Quoting Baggi
Seems to be a pretty large battle here between bulls and bears. If we head down below the weekly and monthly trend line (That we bounced off of the other night) then I'd say that's a solid signal that the bears won. If we get up and stay up over the 6400 line, maybe even as high as 6450, then the bulls win. I don't expect either to happen before the weekend. Maybe next week.
still time if we can get below 16300 that will do me had to go big to pull that long back ,
  • #356,607
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:20am Dec 20, 2013 10:20am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} i have been saying the same thing,unless the big boys are sucking in all the money and we see a big drop which most of us expect, i dont know as i said before it a big game, ?
Technicals, fundamentals and every other method of trading = Nothing some days. The matter is simple, if the market is net short, the market makers have a vested interest in going long. And vice versa of course!
  • #356,608
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:23am Dec 20, 2013 10:23am
Quoting gstup
GDP grow 2.5% to 4.1%... Pretty good data.
Where are you saying this data?


EDIT: Seeing, not saying. Bah.
  • #356,609
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:48am Dec 20, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Where are you saying this data? EDIT: Seeing, not saying. Bah.

Here: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=dec20.2013
Here: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Here: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=&...=true&low=true
  • #356,610
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:59am Dec 20, 2013 10:59am
Okay folks. Happy cable trading.
The only think I will be trading until New Year is food and drink... and maybe some body fluids

All the best to all of you

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,611
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:05am Dec 20, 2013 11:05am
Can someone explain this "Current Account" stuff to a yank?

The headline is, "UK current account deficit balloons to highest since 1989, GDP growth strong"

The number here is 20.7b.

Yet, if you look at the September numbers, under "previous" it says 21.8b.

Isn't 21.8 higher than 20.7?
  • #356,612
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:34am Dec 20, 2013 11:34am
Quoting Baggi
Can someone explain this "Current Account" stuff to a yank? The headline is, "UK current account deficit balloons to highest since 1989, GDP growth strong" The number here is 20.7b. Yet, if you look at the September numbers, under "previous" it says 21.8b. Isn't 21.8 higher than 20.7?

The headline is obviously misleading.
It probably should have read "UK current account deficit balloons to highest in a 3 month period as a share of GDP since 1989"
September's number was revised to -6.2 Bln
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,613
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:40am Dec 20, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Chris Corben
UK Current account far worse than the estimate. Previous revisions show false figures released - The stats office somehow managed to miscalculate by 6.3bn UK borrowing higher than expected. But here we are with a rising GBP in the US session. Stop hunting perhaps? The strong GBP will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on the exports, yet the UK government seems quite happy to allow it to appreciate. hmmmm
Continuing "risk on" effect
Fed still printing outrageous amounts of money each month
Fed promise to maintain ultra low interest rates even after target unemployment rate reached (risk on).
We have closed above the multi year descending weekly/monthly TL
majority of traders still maintaining short Pound positions (your stop hunting suggestion)
Overall market sentiment is Pound bullish on higher TF (perhaps for above mentioned reasons) and this particular news item on its own may well not be deemed important enough to change this sentiment

Take your pick / or all of the above...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #356,614
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:47am Dec 20, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Chris Corben
{quote} Technicals, fundamentals and every other method of trading = Nothing some days. The matter is simple, if the market is net short, the market makers have a vested interest in going long. And vice versa of course!
Having an interest on going a direction is different to being able to change the direction for your interest. The later is dangerous and unfair. Current account was battered for GBP and US revised its GDP TO 4.1%, I mean this simply equates to a fall of Cable. Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought both of this data was impossible to predict and the market should have reacted as soon as it was out.
  • #356,615
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:50am Dec 20, 2013 11:50am
Quote
majority of traders still maintaining short Pound positions (your stop hunting suggestion)
Overall market sentiment is Pound bullish on higher TF

These two points seem contradictory.

Don't majority of traders=market sentiment?
  • #356,616
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:52am Dec 20, 2013 11:52am
Quoting ozgurerisir
{quote} Having an interest on going a direction is different to being able to change the direction for your interest. The later is dangerous and unfair. Current account was battered for GBP and US revised its GDP TO 4.1%, I mean this simply equates to a fall of Cable. Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought both of this data was impossible to predict and the market should have reacted as soon as it was out.
True, but economies are not simple. There are a lot of other factors involved here.

For example, if people are ditching their dollars for something else, that makes the dollar weaker. And because of this news, people are ditching their dollars for stocks. The stock market is just like GBP/USD. But instead of GBP/USD, picture it as AAPL/USD, or some other share.

You will know the dollar is really getting strong when you start hearing that people are shoving dollars under their mattresses again.
  • #356,617
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:57am Dec 20, 2013 11:57am
Quoting ozgurerisir
{quote} Having an interest on going a direction is different to being able to change the direction for your interest. The later is dangerous and unfair. Current account was battered for GBP and US revised its GDP TO 4.1%, I mean this simply equates to a fall of Cable.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought both of this data was impossible to predict and the market should have reacted as soon as it was out.
Under normal market conditions I would fully agree with you, but the fact remains that the market doesn't give a toss about the current account deficit right now. All they care about is what Carney and Bernanke said.

Carney said that QE has ended.
Bernanke said that rates will remain low way past the time that UE rate falls below 6.5%

On top of all that,
- The market is still trying to digest the last FOMC decisions and will probably not fully commit to a sentiment until they see the minutes in Jan.
- This is holiday season. It is time to window dress, adjust positions and close the books for the year... not make bets on next year.
- For the last several months, UK data has been shining brightly. A higher C/A deficit is not going to change that perception, especially since it might be revised lower in March anyway... just like September's figure was revised lower.

I could go on, but I'd rather be sipping on my single malt scotch right now. In the end, Cable is not going to fall off the cliff. If anything, we go sideways till something else comes up.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,618
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:01pm Dec 20, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} These two points seem contradictory. Don't majority of traders=market sentiment?
That's what the market makers want you to believe.

My grandmother used to tell me "When you see everybody running in one direction, get out of there way, let them pass and then walk slowly in the other direction"

She was a smart lady.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,619
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:07pm Dec 20, 2013 12:07pm
Okay, I don't think anyone will be interested in reading what a slightly tipsy guy has to write, so I'm signing off now.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #356,620
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:14pm Dec 20, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} These two points seem contradictory. Don't majority of traders=market sentiment?
Not retail traders, we are mega numbers of tiny plankton in an ocean controlled by a relative few market whales...
Come with me if you want to live....
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