EUR/CHF

SNB said they're prepared to create any reserves if needed to keep the 1.20 floor. Though Jordan has said he sees the Franc being of high-value for a while still.

But yes... Switzerland has unlimited liquidity... Shall those CHF-Buyers take all our expensive Swiss Francs, up to the point where we have 5 or 37 times the GDP in other currencies... then we see the real estate bubble burst, or we lose credibility by holding 37 times FX on the SNB's balance sheet which will probably make CHF lose the safe haven status, as we would become dependent from these countries we're holding the currencies from, and later on, we're buying back these earlier sold swiss francs at a much lower rate...

Where is the problem... i see no limits regarding the size of intervention. I only see the opportunity of even more profit for Switzerland...

BTW: The increasing amount of outstanding CHF did not at all lead to inflation yet... so as long as this is the situation, i see no need to change my point of view... except someone explains me another reasonable view...

I agree :-)
I wrote this a year ago :-)

OK guys, let's put first thing first; I am a strong believer in the 1.20 floor. My moto 'In SNB we trust'.

From a risk point of view, who would allow the SNB to purchase 40 times its GDP in Euros? Its shareholders? Who are the shareholders? The cantons, who partly relies on SNB profits to run their local Gov. Today, SNB's balance sheet shows CHF 470 Bn of foreign currencies. Last year, this figure triggered some discussion in CH, some saying that it is too high & it could put the country at risk.
Now, the DAILY flow on the forex market is... 4 TRILLIONS. Please read this again!
Note: UK could not fight off the hedge funds a few years back.

Inflation (or deflation) is not related to your foreign currency reserve. A currency appreciation or depreciation would, as it affects the cost of your imports & exports.

So, the best stance for the SNB is to look as firm and determined as possible. To quickly dissuade any predators.

Know, I accept to be wrong, just my thoughts

In SNB we trust... so far...

No one was talking about only holding EUROS but a diversified portfolio of currencies... The cantons also have other sources of income, such as individual and corporate tax payers... with an EURCHF under parity and a USDCHF at around 0.70 swiss tax income would erode over time. Discussions from a year ago were mainly because of threats out of inflation, which did not materialize. Sure there were other doubts, well understandable for everyone thinking and believing in a liberal economy.

4 Trillions is good and right, but not all of it would go into Swiss Franc, as it would become another bubble and bubble burst... So if a trillion is beeing bought into swiss franc, i am the one selling my last CHF and buying a foreign currency portfolio.

U cant use UK as an expample to compare the situation, as BoE tried to strenghten GBP with their foreign reservses. No reason in that situation for BoE to print money... Switzerland is trying to weaken it's currency... with utmost determination ;-) and no limit due to their well working printing presses we've seen in 2012... (or rather keyboard with figures and an enter-key). There was a sense in challenging BoE, as there was a technical limit (foreign reserves) but in the CHF case this won't work.

So let's see what FED is telling us this evening... CHF seems to be overbought at the moment... Even more, as EUR-Zone conditions seems to improve and interest rates in the US increase...

I hold my EURCHF longs... Stop 1.1999

I accept your points. Of course, EURCHF only takes 5% of the daily volume, but if GS, MS and a few others starts spreading the words that they are short a pair or an other, it would create attention and flows.

I also holding to my longs with stops 1.1985... last time I put stops at 1.1998, I got stopped . I understand it was a technical error due to off grid quotes, but once beaten....

Agree for the ST overbought situation and expect a correction, but in MT, I still expect to see 1.213 (let's say end Q1).

If the SNB needs to buy Euros at Eur/Chf 1.2, they'll diversify their surplus of those Euros by quietly purchasing other ccys like they did late-2011/early-2012 when they sold hard on Eur/Cad & Eur/Aud, doubling their CAD & AUD holdings that would be less risk in the Euro, as the EZ was pretty risky back then.
SNB I Trust, as well.

Though Jordan did say he expects the Franc to be close to 1.20 E/C for a while.

Are we heading to 1,2280?

For me step 1 is to clear the 1.225, at the moment, we stopped under MVA20 Daily & today's high is still lower then the last high of Dec 12th... So, we still have to confirm this change of momentum...

With the sell pin bar at 1 and 4 hour, cant we sense a sell signal?

I think that yesteraday we saw medium term low, i expect uptrend for next two months. My target is 1.2370 -1.2500
To be more safe im placing my Sl at 1.1970.

Hi Sw, regading the current december move I have seen some analyst saying that the reason is mostly the repatriations by large swiss banks and enterprises because of year end balace sheet window dressing. If you check last years Dec-Jan PA that confirms this talk - similar situation like August and the Yen. According to this some PA a could be expected in January. Seated locally do you have any experience in the swiss year end flows? Thanks

Hi Pip i'm nearly done for the year.

Still got my longs on this pair and a few on dollar yen i may keep over the and into the new year.

Hopefully you have had a good year and i will no doubt see you on this thread in 2014 still holding longs and still waiting for the 1.30 area

Did not have long to wait
http://www.efxnews.com/story/22188/m...-goldman-sachs

What is point of testing 1.2 level without peg removing, they will lose again, inflation of 0.1% is no inflation, moving to 1.20 import prices fill fall again.
With tapering on the run oil will fall and global inflation with it.
Truley hope that pair goes down making great opportunities to scalp and option trading.

I decided in my EURCHF short positions

A bullish view on the pair:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...december-2013/

HELLO
I EURCHF is trading, profitably.
two three times a month.
Stable in the VOLATOLITÁSA?
What do you think?

Some food for next year...lets see who will have better forecast the Dorgan team or the franc bears.
DJ Swiss Stocks Unlikely to Stand Out in New Year
30-Dec-2013

By Neil MacLucas

ZURICH--Switzerland's blue-chip stock index posted a relatively sluggish performance in 2013. Next year, doesn't look much better.
The Swiss Market Index, an equity benchmark that includes 20 of the country's biggest companies, underperformed many of its global peers as tepid growth in the European Union weighed on exports and slow growth at home compounded the situation.
With one trading session left in the year, the SMI is up just about 20% in 2013. Meanwhile, Japanese shares have risen more than 50%; the broad S&P 500 in the U.S. is up roughly 30%; and the MSCI World index, a measure of global share performance, is up about 22%.
As of 1139 GMT, the SMI was down 0.3% at 8197.47.

Analysts and strategists say Switzerland's reliance on the EU is part of the reason the country's equity market has lagged others. The 28-nation bloc buys a little more than half of Switzerland's 201 billion francs ($225 billion) in exports, which range from high-end machinery to agricultural products. The Alpine nation also sells services, such as staffing and recruitment, to the EU.

Swiss exporters are unlikely to get much help next year from the EU, which will be likely be weighed down by fragile economies in southern Europe and difficulties in the banking sector. The European Commission, the bloc's executive body, sees growth of just 1.1% next year, up from zero this year.
"Economic developments in Europe will be key for many Swiss companies,' said Martin Huesler, an equities analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank, noting plumbing equipment maker Geberit AG (GEBN.VX) and recruitment company Adecco SA (ADEN.VX) because of their reliance on the EU.

Mr. Huesler credited the expansive monetary policy of central banks around the world for driving "surprising gains" for the Swiss market in 2013. Investors will continue looking to equities for yield in 2014, Mr. Huesler said, but the SMI likely won't rise more than mid-single digits.

Companies with greater global reach--such as power technology company ABB Ltd (ABBN.VX), food giant Nestle SA (NESN.VX) and drug makers Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) and Novartis AG (NVS)--will be less affected by regional issues and therefore be more attractive to conservative portfolio managers, analysts say.
But those companies will still have to navigate a strong franc, which erodes the value of sales in other countries when repatriated to Switzerland. The franc is currently at historic highs against the euro, and is expected to remain strong throughout 2014 because of the ongoing economic difficulties in the EU. Swiss companies won't get a break at home either.

Economic growth in Switzerland is seen at 2.3% next year, up slightly from 1.9% in 2013. Fewer companies are investing in new equipment because of the discouraging outlook for export growth, which in turn holds back economic growth at home.
Gabriel Bartholdi, an equities strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd., says unimpressive domestic growth, which started to slow in the fourth quarter of 2013, will cap the SMI next year. He sees the SMI hitting 8,400 by the end of 2014, a rise of around 3% for the year.
"The data thus far indicates a slowing momentum of Swiss growth," Mr. Bartholdi said. The first quarter of next year will also be disappointing, he said.
Write to Neil MacLucas at [email protected]

Hi Br, Im also done but a bit busy with holyday season...can not complain really with the year and lets see next. Still carry on with strategic longs a remain until real signs of inflation. Last year December if you remember and look at the chart the so called "year end flows" and "bank window dressing" weighed on this pair (some balance sheet profit taking and liquidity for "Basel" rules probably). Then when repatriation reversed in January it was combustive. Could expect some action therefore soon. Besides now also some real bears have appeared (including GS) so its start to be really interesting. Green pips to you and all for next year!