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AUDNZD, GBPJPY, EURUSD - H4/D1/W1 Setups

  • #61
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:50am Dec 13, 2013 3:50am
south bound
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Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #62
  • Dec 15, 2013 8:14pm Dec 15, 2013 8:14pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} And if you sold down there, you got burned. While I made 5 times my risk. didnt you know you can trade both ways? if you can't time bottoms, then just trade one way. Nothing wrong with that. Just so you know, was long Monday from 1.0955, got out and shorted 1.1040 rode it down to 1.0960 Then lost on two trades with less than 20 pip stops. Then profited 50 pips from 1.0824 Riding a trend is good but swing traders capture the corrections too.. are you going to wait until 1.10+ to get out of shorts? that's the problem with not being able to...
stop out man? Buy low, sell high.
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #63
  • Edited 11:20pm Dec 15, 2013 11:04pm | Edited 11:20pm
About time to start buying.

Trust me I know it's a downtrend (one of the strongest) but I trade the edges of the market where the RR is greatest.

Long term could be headed to 0.9634.. it sure has the pressure to do it. I'll short when the correction is over.

2013 needs close above 1.0968 for bulls to have any chance at 1.12 and 1.15
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #64
  • Dec 15, 2013 11:27pm Dec 15, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting PIPot
nice re entry AUDJPY short {image}
no audjpy for this thread ...

gbpjpy this thread. not focused on it at the moment though..

But soon I will change my charts over to AUDNZD GBPJPY and EURUSD mix instead of multiple time frames for AUDNZD
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #65
  • Edited 11:48pm Dec 15, 2013 11:38pm | Edited 11:48pm
By the way nit that this is related to currency so much but... Global equity market cap is over 70 trillion USD (thanks BOJ) now I haven't done the exact math but it could be over 80 trillion (takes forever adding up the 100s of stock exchanges worldwide, and doing currency conversions to USD)


US stocks nearly at 50 trillion.. Something like 48.5 trillion.

I'm not long stocks anymore except a few outliers. And those are VIX hedged.

Safer to buy low 16xx in SPX

if there's any index you want to hold as a core long term position... It's the nikkei
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #66
  • Edited Dec 16, 2013 12:04am Dec 15, 2013 11:51pm | Edited Dec 16, 2013 12:04am
1.0750/75 is looking very attractive.

if dips that far ill add big ones right now I'm just in normal size

i don't chase markets short after 7 consecutive bearish closes.

Odds favor this week or next week closes in the green
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #67
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:18am Dec 16, 2013 12:18am
AUDNZD m30

daily/h4 bullish swing potential soon
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #68
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:26am Dec 16, 2013 1:26am
4hr correcting
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #69
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:01pm Dec 16, 2013 3:01pm
daily setup forming

all about the risk reward + adding to winners to push RR to a max

just make sure you are only adding to winners on supportive candles.

when any reversal candles come, cut your added positions and just hold the core position (if you do have a longer term target in mind for those positions)

then when the smaller TFs start to finish correction, add to core positions again


doing this you can increase the reward on the initial stop loss by 50% or more..
but its definitely a more tactical trading style, not set and forget by any means


by the way the daily stoch (21period) has not been oversold for this long for over 2 years.
maybe longer but i didnt feel like checking any further back in history.

better to sell on rallies.
its not sell low and buy high.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #70
  • Edited 3:46pm Dec 16, 2013 3:16pm | Edited 3:46pm
nice (m1 chart)

big seller from long term (take profit on long positions from under 1.08, from years ago)
sees that there will be huge buy limit orders if we break the lows at 22

a very nice place for them to take profit without causing much slippage.
if there was not buy limits placed below it would have fell substantially more than 20 pips.


anyway, the point is this
the only reason the market would fall that hard that fast and then reverse just as fast... is because someone was happy either SHORTING into the long term trend (nice liquidity from the buyers), or someone was happy taking profit on long positions that they have been holding for YEARS because there was nice liquidity to the longside (buy limits) ..and to take profit they need buyers..

even at 1.08 its a great time to close out huge positions that they were holding since 1.05s or 1.06s.... if you can see that there is enough liquidity to do so..
sure they would have liked to close all their positions in 1.30s and 1.20s.. but thats just a physical impossibility. some have to be closed near the bottom even years later... because thats where the best liquidity is.

the buy limit side (liquidity for sellers) is either shorts taking profit or new speculative longs

in 2013 I have finally learned where to place limit orders (although I always place a series of limit orders and never with tight stops) Tight stops are for market orders based on price action that has strong momentum, in my opinion..
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #71
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:50pm Dec 16, 2013 3:50pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
or someone was happy taking profit on long positions that they have been holding for YEARS because there was nice liquidity to the longside (buy limits) ..and to take profit they need buyers.. even at 1.08 its a great time to close out huge positions that they were holding since 1.05s or 1.06s.... if you can see that there is enough liquidity to do so..
............
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #72
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:33pm Dec 16, 2013 4:33pm
1.382 fib extension + divergence.

well played

1.0750/80 huge buy zone for me like I said yesterday
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #73
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:48pm Dec 16, 2013 4:48pm
failing to plan is planning to fail
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #74
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:56pm Dec 16, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
failing to plan is planning to fail {image}
hey rags thanx for being AUD/NZD to my attention excellent demand now clear divergence in 1 hour and 4 hour all time frames even monthly oversold my god same rhetoric actually saw an initial up move for AUD it seems like the RBA isn't being as effective as it once was in talkin the AUD now some analysts are saying gear up for a move to 1.16 which really just seems like a normalization not even really an upmove
  • #75
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:30pm Dec 16, 2013 6:30pm
what is ur stop loss rags?
  • #76
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:47pm Dec 16, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting iNSIELD
what is ur stop loss rags?

8 pips 21 pips and 55 pips are typical stop losses I use
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #77
  • Dec 17, 2013 9:04am Dec 17, 2013 9:04am
Hi Rags and others

This may seem obvious but needs reminder.Correlations
When AU is falling expect AN to fall as well.We should only go long on AN once AU stops its downward free fall.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #78
  • Edited 2:47am Dec 20, 2013 1:48am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
1.0750/75 is looking very attractive. if dips that far ill add big ones right now I'm just in normal size i don't chase markets short after 7 consecutive bearish closes. Odds favor this week or next week closes in the green
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]All is good here on audnzd I cashed out most profit for 70-100 pips and been buying dips. Holding some remaining [/highlight]
ones for a green weekly close and possible follow through to 1.0980

also caught 30 pips south from 1.0845 on a scalp after taking profit

8 consecutive bearish weeks. Would be nice if this week closes as a hammer and next week follow through for first green weekly close.


1.0733 is the lowest monthly close and 2.00 extension of 1.1195 to 1.1650 (summer correction)

1.0618 is the 2008 low

1.0430 is the all time low and 2.618 extension of 1.1195 to 1.1650

if it substantially breaks down, there is the 1.118 extension of thr all time low to all time high at 1.0030
then there is a falling trend line and 1.236 extension of the all time low to all time high at 0.9630 but that's long term
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #79
  • Edited 2:30am Dec 20, 2013 2:16am | Edited 2:30am
Quoting Davit
Hi Rags and others This may seem obvious but needs reminder.Correlations When AU is falling expect AN to fall as well.We should only go long on AN once AU stops its downward free fall. regards
That is the typical correlation yes, bearish USD = bullish AUDNZD

but since nzd has not fallen hardly at all I can see a bullish case for AUDNZD even with a bullish dollar

nzd could fall to 73 cents while aud only falls to 83 cents thus giving bullish AUDNZD

Yen and Aussie shorts are the only reason USD is not in a free fall

2013 was a rare occurrence. A bullish USD and a bullish EURO (requires most currencies to be weak, which they were especially emerging market currencies were pounded and of course the yen has fallen over 20%).

GBPJPY was the trade of the year. Actually % wise (not pips) it is eurjpy
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #80
  • Edited 3:43am Dec 24, 2013 3:25am | Edited 3:43am
Hello? Looking for some exchange rate stabilization.



Likely to get another low next year before we see any major stabilization

But that doesn't mean I won't be bottom feeding when it's very oversold.

Those who didn't buy Euro sub 1.22...are regretting it

That was a very similar falling knife into a multi year support zone with the same divergence signals.
and shocker, we rallied.

happy Holidays, I hope no one scalping, go enjoy your family
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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