EURUSD | Page 43178 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #863,541
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:38pm Dec 14, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting OctaveJay509
{quote} Once again, you are being miserable and a failure right now....You chose only one of my replies to trip me down, and guess what? That attitude is not going to get you any far in this game.... Now, take a look on some of my replies on this forum, and you will see the connection: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post7142992 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post7095419 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7076531 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post7051622...
Nah,

I'm good thanks!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #863,542
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:59pm Dec 14, 2013 4:59pm
Am I the the only one that loves the drama from a trading forum over the weekend? lol
  • #863,543
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:02pm Dec 14, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} From Friday closing movement is unlikely for that to happen but never say never. Anxiously awaiting Sunday opening because went a bit overboard with U/J longs though all at BE+some still a lot at stake if it decides to take nose dive. E/J longs about 1/10 of U/J. This is only part of it. 1330393

U think Monday EJ & GJ not going down
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #863,544
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:21pm Dec 14, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} U think Monday EJ & GJ not going down
No way to know for sure but from Tokyo opening - closing will give some clues + ears on the news that may trigger risk aversion.
  • #863,545
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:30pm Dec 14, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No way to know for sure but from Tokyo opening - closing will give some clues + ears on the news that may trigger risk aversion.

I think GJ going down BIG will drag EJ along
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #863,546
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:31pm Dec 14, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting fosking
Am I the the only one that loves the drama from a trading forum over the weekend? lol
What drama. The forum is dead on weekends.
  • #863,547
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:40pm Dec 14, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Oh no I didn't mean to imply you were, I appreciate what you were trying to do.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #863,548
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:42pm Dec 14, 2013 5:42pm
I think and i can say slightly slightly sure that 1.38 isn't the top based on the lastest data released by CFTC ... the last time 1.38 sold off , it saw huge swings of Long Euro positioning. Here its quite the opposite , volume is heading the direction of buying. All this is consistant with my early projectation at late November that markets will call the feds bluff.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CFTC.Market.Positioning.PNG Size: 28 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,549
  • Dec 14, 2013 6:45pm Dec 14, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting Vachus
I think and i can say slightly slightly sure that 1.38 isn't the top based on the lastest data released by CFTC ... the last time 1.38 sold off , it saw huge swings of Long Euro positioning. Here its quite the opposite , volume is heading the direction of buying. All this is consistant with my early projectation at late November that markets will call the feds bluff. {image}
I already said that it goes up like a horse.
will aver a big move in the markets next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2.png Size: 41 KB
  • #863,550
  • Dec 14, 2013 6:58pm Dec 14, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting Vachus
I think and i can say slightly slightly sure that 1.38 isn't the top based on the lastest data released by CFTC ... {image}
... same data, but presented in better way than just spreadsheet is available here: http://www.scotiafx.com/FXCommentaries.htm# ...
Weekly CFTC Trader Positioning Data ... but, please note: Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 10 & were released Friday Dec 13 (all info up to previous week)
  • #863,551
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:23pm Dec 14, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting Vachus
I think and i can say slightly slightly sure that 1.38 isn't the top based on the lastest data released by CFTC ... the last time 1.38 sold off , it saw huge swings of Long Euro positioning. Here its quite the opposite , volume is heading the direction of buying. All this is consistant with my early projectation at late November that markets will call the feds bluff. {image}
Being a bear and agreeing with you is hard, but what the hell? i also see a bigger bull than my small teddy bear
Like i said and i will be, in safe mode - Scalp mode
Edit : worth waiting for the 23rd? i donno might take my break b4 then
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #863,552
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:44pm Dec 14, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting Avir
{quote} Being a bear and agreeing with you is hard, but what the hell? i also see a bigger bull than my small teddy bear Like i said and i will be, in safe mode - Scalp mode Edit : worth waiting for the 23rd? i donno might take my break b4 then
Actually the data release for the last few weeks are showing signs of an over bought markets near 1.38 ...so, definitely we are near a top! The position ratio of Long Euros was almost 200%+ Mid / late October , now its merely 120+ % with single digits increases. So, i wouldn't give it much of 100 /150 pips upwards then back to September levels. One of the reasons i look closly in CFTC spread sheet is to see " leveraged funds open interest & new add position. They tend to be on the right track of sentiment in the markets. Hardly to find them positioning in the wrong direction , for a reason i can't figure out.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,553
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:01pm Dec 14, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Actually the data release for the last few weeks are showing signs of an over bought markets near 1.38 ...so, definitely we are near a top! The position ratio of Long Euros was almost 200%+ Mid / late October , now its merely 120+ % with single digits increases. So, i wouldn't give it much of 100 /150 pips upwards then back to September levels. One of the reasons i look closly in CFTC spread sheet is to see " leveraged funds open interest & new add position. They tend to be on the right track of sentiment in the markets. Hardly to find them...
With the suckering retailers got a few days ago I think we've already hit our top.
  • #863,554
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:22pm Dec 14, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote}... Big Boys/Pro have no idea ...
... that's very simplistic approach and not accurate at all ... if, you want to learn/know more in that matter (institutional traders / hedge funds) ... then here is a link where you can start: http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Home.html ... but, there is many more than just that of course.
  • #863,555
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:24pm Dec 14, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} With the suckering retailers got a few days ago I think we've already hit our top.
Look, i really really really wish this is the top - i swear on Zeus almighty it will be the first time to make me happy being wrong ... But nothing, nothing shows we are at a top. ( Selling pressure zone yes, but not a top )

I don't have an open long position on the Euro or even an interest for it to go higher, but from what i see - this is not a top behavior .. it may go lower , i will be surprised if 1.36 didn't have huge buyers waiting for a discount rally ! But, as everything in life - you never know. In any case, if i get a confirmation its a top - i will sell the hell out of it. If not, i will buy conservatively with a small stoplose. If this or that doesn't work, i'm waiting!

* I'm watching Monday low, i'm expecting it to go for the 1.37 first - if we don't get a close of that daily doji under the low .. then i think i will be buying , and buying more - but with a stop loss of course.

*Kanzler, I'm referring to the positional ratio of CFTC data - not the retailers.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,556
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:37pm Dec 14, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Look, i really really really wish this is the top - i swear on Zeus almighty it will be the first time to make me happy being wrong ... But nothing, nothing shows we are at a top. ( Selling pressure zone yes, but not a top ) I don't have an open long position on the Euro or even an interest for it to go higher, but from what i see - this is not a top behavior .. it may go lower , i will be surprised if 1.36 didn't have huge buyers waiting for a discount rally ! But, as everything in life - you never know. In any case, if i get a confirmation...
Ok. Well, we'll see. I'm holding my daily position until I see some convincing reason to exit. I'm relatively confident because of the retail bear trap though...that was just way too easy of money to allow that opportunity to not be the top. Those who took advantage of it have some amazingly valuable positions potentially.
  • #863,557
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:45pm Dec 14, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Ok. Well, we'll see. I'm holding my daily position until I see some convincing reason to exit. I'm relatively confident because of the retail bear trap though...that was just way too easy of money to allow that opportunity to not be the top. Those who took advantage of it have some amazingly valuable positions potentially.
Well, you never know ... you might be right and next week be a sell off. In any case, stay calm and keep the trade
If i was in ur position, i won't listen to no one - even god himself ... My plan, my trade and my risk ! If i was wrong, so be it.

You can imagine the conversion :

God: What are you doing? exist the trade !
Me: Am i trading your account or mine ?
God: Yours
Me: Then, be quite and get the hell out.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,558
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:41pm Dec 14, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Well, you never know ... you might be right and next week be a sell off. In any case, stay calm and keep the trade If i was in ur position, i won't listen to no one - even god himself ... My plan, my trade and my risk ! If i was wrong, so be it. You can imagine the conversion : God: What are you doing? exist the trade ! Me: Am i trading your account or mine ? God: Yours Me: Then, be quite and get the hell out.
haha that gave me a good chuckle. Just from the technical standpoint it's looking good so far. Sunday open comes around and we could see something crazy happen which prompts a change in opinion. Always good to be flexible as long as it's part of the plan so that you know when action is actually warranted.
  • #863,559
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:02pm Dec 14, 2013 10:02pm
Just one view point. This is one of my monthly TL's. The weekly PA has been in this position recently and I remember Monday's open gapped above the weekly TL at the time. The other possibility is that we head out of the wedge/triangle on the downside from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 34.png Size: 60 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #863,560
  • Dec 15, 2013 1:05am Dec 15, 2013 1:05am
Similarity of candles at same level perhaps could signal potential reversal, but for me personally it's too early to call it that way ... and as I've posted last week
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post7142298 ... thus rather still, I'm expecting to see some relatively higher price yet (before any major correction)
but, whatever happened in a past does not necessarily indicates any future moves and certainly does not guarantee to repeat them itself in exactly same manner. However, it can well serve as quite reliable warning ... regardless of your stance is in that matter and/or your current position (... long / short / flat ...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR USD.jpg Size: 124 KB

Anyway, until Fed's decision on Wednesday (Dec.18 FOMC - statement) ... we all can just keep guessing ... altogether with whole bunch of the other market commentators and so called market economists (consensus is roughly 50/50 ... but of course that depends from where/whom you're listening and/or reading)
2,932 traders viewing now