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  • #863,521
  • Dec 14, 2013 2:41am Dec 14, 2013 2:41am
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes... But do not agree completely on the smaller TF, yes it will bring more stress and it is more difficult to manage due to the fact that emotions come to knock on the door constantly…..but if is managed can bring greater potential……You see... once you deal with your emotions on the bigger TF, then it will be much easier to deal with much more stress in the shorter TF, due to the fact that the mind already knows his prints/path…..
The lower time frames are poison for most people. On a daily chart, the fee for entering the trade is negligible. On the 5 minute, it can be nearly 100% of your actual risk zone; so you're wasting half of your money just on the transaction fee. It's not even so much the stress alone but that fact that makes it dangerous. I try to stay on the M30 at lowest, only occasionally will I look lower only if I see something on the higher frames that might be clearer....unless it's something I'm almost sure about I won't touch it with a ten foot pole.
  • #863,522
  • Edited 3:37am Dec 14, 2013 3:22am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} The lower time frames are poison for most people. On a daily chart, the fee for entering the trade is negligible. On the 5 minute, it can be nearly 100% of your actual risk zone; so you're wasting half of your money just on the transaction fee. It's not even so much the stress alone but that fact that makes it dangerous. I try to stay on the M30 at lowest, only occasionally will I look lower only if I see something on the higher frames that might be clearer....unless it's something I'm almost sure about I won't touch it with a ten foot pole....
Yes what you say it is true, but truth is also only a perception based on one personal experiences….it is vital that we keep an open mind in this business as in life…For what I understand bigger TF can be perceived more manageable because of the wider protective stop that one sets and can give a perception of protection, but in reality it is more of a gambling in my view because conditions/sentiments can change from one period to another and your original decision making could not have any relevance in the near future where you had assumed you gain (TP) will reach..

While in the smaller time frame where you assume gain is reached in between a couple minutes to max 60 minutes(in extreme cases), you do not depend very much on external conditions or luck, but in your ability to see the subtlety of the tug of war between the part and your nimblety to jump on the wagon where double pressure is created (in a long direction, the bear became bulls by covering once they realise the are wrong).

Keep in mind that when I have a good day in scalping, I can take home 6%, while with the daily system I need to work 2 weeks………There is always a price to pay….

Done for the day time, time for me to relax….
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #863,523
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:21am Dec 14, 2013 4:21am
Quoting ud1nh0
thats only for pro n veteran. for newbie like me, fear is part of emotion. newbie never trade emotionless. don't expect a newbie turn into pro in just 1 night
As for me once I have an open order I will only check it every few hours and let the SL and TP control my exit. This removes my temptation to exit early.
  • #863,524
  • Dec 14, 2013 6:30am Dec 14, 2013 6:30am
I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstandingly intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important.

Eckhardt
  • #863,525
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:12am Dec 14, 2013 7:12am
if it breaks 375 then buying EU is good on its correction. i have missed the buy @ 371
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #863,526
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:33am Dec 14, 2013 7:33am
Quoting OctaveJay509
I understood that you were serious but I didn't want your seriousness to overshadow the purpose of this forum....We all are providing different ideas here, and it's very difficult for one to learn from one another because at the end of the day, you are going to be the one to make the final call to push the buy/or sell button. No one is to blame!!!! Food for thought: "Inequality of OUTCOME can only be accepted when there's an equality of OPPORTUNITY."
Your justification of Harmonic patterns is wasted on me and really wasn't really the primary topic of conversation.

How you continue to trade, or your methodology is fine with me. Irrelevant, but whatever. It's not my money you are giving away to your broker...it's yours.

What we were discussing, is the latent inaccuracies in your previous statements. Just because you can quote trade clichés and have read a book or studied some ideas behind trading, doesn't mean you are equip to take on market.

You haven't even touched on any of what I have told you to have a look at as inaccurate, but wish to continue on with an unrelated diatribe.

Your current idea of market is a close parallel to understanding that something needs to be in the gas tank of a vehicle in order for it to drive, so you fill it with marshmallows.

Don't feel the need to respond to me. These too are wasted efforts. Take the time to get to know this playground and then, when you have something to offer, others will be a lot more receptive. Continuing on with these rebuttals, is not only of zero value, but repeatedly displays your lack of knowledge and an unwillingness to learn from others that try and help.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #863,527
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:52am Dec 14, 2013 9:52am
Quoting NuNix
{quote} Shalat maghrib dulu mang udin, berdo'a sama Allah SWT semoga tiap hari bisa profit
Did you manage +150 pips from E/J short? I didn't and was concentrated on U/J. It has broken the 5 years high and we are entering the unknown zone. Things were different 5 years ago and near years end can be tricky.
  • #863,528
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:05am Dec 14, 2013 10:05am
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes what you say it is true, but truth is also only a perception based on one personal experiences….it is vital that we keep an open mind in this business as in life…For what I understand bigger TF can be perceived more manageable because of the wider protective stop that one sets and can give a perception of protection, but in reality it is more of a gambling in my view because conditions/sentiments can change from one period to another and your original decision making could not have any relevance in the near future where you had assumed...
It has little to do with personal experience and more to do with math. Let's do a controlled study to illustrate the concept.

Since we cannot control for two independent variables, we must assume that the odds of "winning" a trade (reaching 1x risk) are equal at both time-frames with our technical analysis. While your assertion that higher time frame trades do not have the same odds as lower time frame trades due to fundamental conditions may or may not be true, it is necessary to study that argument in its own right. For now I'd simply like to illustrate how destructive the simple role of the spread can be.

It is further necessary to make another assumption - that the higher time frame you go, in general, the more pips you need for a stop-loss. For example, on a daily entry your stop-loss may be 100 pips due to whatever technical indication you get to take a position. On the five minute, you may only need a 3 pip stop-loss before you are proved wrong. While both of these values are arbitrary, this is in general a fair assumption, wouldn't you agree?

Now let's take a standard 3 pip retail broker spread and see how it affects your trading odds. As previously agreed, assume each trade has an equal chance of working out - for simplicity's sake let's say 50%, so that our 3 pip stop-loss trade has a 50% chance of going to 3 pips positive before hitting the stop and the 100 pip stop-loss trade has a 50% chance of going to 100 pips positive before hitting the stop. With no spread, these odds are perfectly equal. However, when we factor in spread by adding the spread points to our stop-loss to prevent early termination of our trade (accidentally), we really need a 6 pip stop-loss (3 points for the zone, 3 points for spread) and a 103 pip stop-loss (100+3). Our 5 minute trade now needs to go 6 pips to match what we're risking instead of just 3. The spread just doubled our risk (100% increase) in order to get that one pip, while our odds for it working haven't changed any. We still have a 50% chance of it working out, but if you lose you lose twice as much as if you'd have won. With the 100 pip zone (103 with spread), our spread also increased the risk, but by a measly 1.03%. We still only need to go 103 pips to match our risk of 100 pips and "win".

This handicap quickly becomes debilitating even if you make good calls on a frequent basis.
  • #863,529
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:16am Dec 14, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Magix
{quote} You haven't even touched on any of what I have told you to have a look at as inaccurate, but wish to continue on with an unrelated diatribe. Your current idea of market is a close parallel to understanding that something needs to be in the gas tank of a vehicle in order for it to drive, so you fill it with marshmallows. Don't feel the need to respond to me. These too are wasted efforts. Take the time to get to know this playground and then, when you have something to offer, others will be a lot more receptive. Continuing on with these rebuttals,...
I think that you are really missing the point here, and I won't mind to respond as I please....And if you choose to ignore the premise of this conversation, it will only show your immaturity...

I laid out a few statements based on my knowledge and the psychological state of this market as a whole....Despite what you know, your experience throughout the years will not or ever change the framework behind every decision making by people like us....Greed, Fear and uncertainty are always going to play major factors in our decisions....Like the majority of us, if you choose to downplay one leg of that equation, you will never be satisfied of your own results...

My methods and strategies are based on a scientific bias, and you damn right, I am justifying Harmonic patterns....I don't know you and you don't even know me... By the way, I have a background on chemistry, physics, psychology, and maths...And it's only fair to see the market for what it is...It's a combination of
art and science... "YOU CAN BELIEVE WHATEVER YOU WANT, BUT YOU WILL NEVER BREAK THE CYCLE. "

Being on this forum is a waste of time, but I figured why not waste a few hours since the market is open 24/5.....What you need to understand is there are hundreds or even thousands of materiel out there for people to learn about the market, but there's one thing they can't teach you....[Hint: Figure it out]

Information overload is a disease, and what I am offering here is not extra information or bullshit...I am simply pointing out the obvious...If there's an "Holy grail" in this market, you are your own "Holy grail"...Don't expect my method or your method to work for everyone here.....

Don't get me wrong, I am not going to brag like yourself to show people that i know exactly where the price movement is going and I am a genius on reading charts. Get the fuck outta here!!!!

Huh? Showing my lack of knowledge is not my problem, and I am guessing this is the reason why i am here...If I were a Veteran like yourself, I would probability be sipping cognac, and get a massage from a bad bitch in Fiji. LOL!
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,530
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:39am Dec 14, 2013 10:39am
Could anyone point me towards a charting system that offers yearly and possibly quarterly candles? Would like to examine them.
  • #863,531
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:44am Dec 14, 2013 10:44am
Quoting OctaveJay509
{quote} I think that you are really missing the point here, and I won't mind to respond as I please....And if you choose to ignore the premise of this conversation, it will only show your immaturity... ...If I were a Veteran like yourself, I would probability be sipping cognac, and get a massage from a bad bitch in Fiji. LOL!
Silly little person...

Read your initial reply, the word Harmonic, not only doesn't show up in your reply, it wasn't even posted by any single user on that page. Beings how this was the beginning of your diatribe, how can you now state harmonics as the premise?

HERE.

Again, your logic is muddled and confused and barely coherent. Much to the point that I would suggest that you put down the tube of model glue, or felt marker that you are sniffing and stay away from your keyboard until the effects wear off.

If you got into this industry thinking that success means sipping cognac and getting a massage from a bad bitch in Fiji...I've got some even worse news for ya.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #863,532
  • Dec 14, 2013 11:28am Dec 14, 2013 11:28am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} It has little to do with personal experience and more to do with math. Let's do a controlled study to illustrate the concept. Since we cannot control for two independent variables, we must assume that the odds of "winning" a trade (reaching 1x risk) are equal at both time-frames with our technical analysis. While your assertion that higher time frame trades do not have the same odds as lower time frame trades due to fundamental conditions may or may not be true, it is necessary to study that argument in its own right. For now I'd simply...
Yes, you are right but as in my case where my average risk is 6 pips and my TP is 10 pips set, a spread more than one pip is not convenient. My broker spread average is 1.2 which is not optimal. A 3 pip spread will just not do it. A broker with no spread and just commission will work better. Also take in consideration that I take advantage of the momentum in my style where often my TP of 10 pips is reached in a timespan of minutes due to the fact I described in the post before..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #863,533
  • Dec 14, 2013 11:31am Dec 14, 2013 11:31am
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes, you are right but as in my case where my average risk is 6 pips and my TP is 10 pips set, a spread more than one pip is not convenient. My broker spread average is 1.2 which is not optimal. A 3 pip spread will just not do it. A broker with no spread and just commission will work better. Also take in consideration that I take advantage of the momentum in my style where often my TP of 10 pips is reached in a timespan of minutes due to the fact I described in the post before..
If you can get really low spreads or a commission based fee system I don't think it's nearly as bad, although I'd have to see what the fees actually are and how they impact earnings. I just know both FXCM and Oanda don't really offer anything that low for customers like me.
  • #863,534
  • Dec 14, 2013 11:47am Dec 14, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} If you can get really low spreads or a commission based fee system I don't think it's nearly as bad, although I'd have to see what the fees actually are and how they impact earnings. I just know both FXCM and Oanda don't really offer anything that low for customers like me.
I use Oanda for this kind of trading, spread for EU is 1.2 average, not during news release which I stay away from till it settles. Oanda offers 30seconds chart and you can also switch off the reading in pipette in viewing only the pips, which are convenience in this kind of style….for me
Broker with little or non spread at all are best due to the fact that often the TP of 10 pips is not reached by only one pip with brokers with spreads while it will reach with brokers with commission only..

I will send you a pm with some reading on my style of scalping...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #863,535
  • Dec 14, 2013 12:14pm Dec 14, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} It's a game of the mind vs the magic of price action.. even the best players are tricked out of good positions by the market.. For S/T players a "set, forget & take your eye off the screen" approach as mentioned by our friend Kanzler may help.. while long distance players looking for those occasional big paydays must over come the stress of counter rally, sit & accumulate as long as the M/T trend is intact.. a very hard counter human trait with most giving up too early & watch the market run away.. ud1nh0.. all of us start as noobs, pay...
Nice Post
  • #863,536
  • Dec 14, 2013 12:24pm Dec 14, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Silly little person... Read your initial reply, the word Harmonic, not only doesn't show up in your reply, it wasn't even posted by any single user on that page. Beings how this was the beginning of your diatribe, how can you now state harmonics as the premise? HERE. Again, your logic is muddled and confused and barely coherent. Much to the point that I would suggest that you put down the tube of model glue, or felt marker that you are sniffing and stay away from...
Once again, you are being miserable and a failure right now....You chose only one of my replies to trip me down, and guess what? That attitude is not going to get you any far in this game....

Now, take a look on some of my replies on this forum, and you will see the connection:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post7142992

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post7095419

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7076531

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post7051622

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7049102

By the way, that reply that you showed above was simply me trying to put myself on the user's shoes and illustrate how i go about to analyze
Higher Time frames, and I did the same thing to you as well when you stepped in to make your points....

Anything else you wanna say on how I am being inaccurate?

Sipping cognac and getting a massage is a metaphor, I was trying to show the world how pathetic you are to correct someone that you don't even know, and on a funny way, I can call it success, because not many people can do that....

How long you have been trading this market? I bet you will be embarrassed to say, because your experience won't reflect on your trading account.

Since I am gonna be trading this game for a long time, I am guessing we will see how it turns out in the next 5 years mate.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,537
  • Dec 14, 2013 12:52pm Dec 14, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting milam
{quote} I use Oanda for this kind of trading, spread for EU is 1.2 average, not during news release which I stay away from till it settles. Oanda offers 30seconds chart and you can also switch off the reading in pipette in viewing only the pips, which are convenience in this kind of style….for me Broker with little or non spread at all are best due to the fact that often the TP of 10 pips is not reached by only one pip with brokers with spreads while it will reach with brokers with commission only.. I will send you a pm with some reading on my style...
Thanks for your PM, although to be straightforward I try to avoid reading about other strategies as I try to keep focused on what I know works for me. I use Oanda but not their charting package; I use MT4 for that. And yes I've had problems of not being filled before...some very epic trades that ended up being worth over 10x their risk before my plan tells me to exit not taken because of half a pip of spread even though price clearly enters the risk area. Frustrating to say the least but my complaints really don't get far. I ended up just dropping the NZD pairs because of the ridiculous spread practices there. (for example spread reaches over 40 pips on Friday close on EUR/NZD...good luck dealing with that)
  • #863,538
  • Dec 14, 2013 1:11pm Dec 14, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Thanks for your PM, although to be straightforward I try to avoid reading about other strategies as I try to keep focused on what I know works for me. I use Oanda but not their charting package; I use MT4 for that. And yes I've had problems of not being filled before...some very epic trades that ended up being worth over 10x their risk before my plan tells me to exit not taken because of half a pip of spread even though price clearly enters the risk area. Frustrating to say the least but my complaints really don't get...
I was not trying to persuade you on changing style, we were chatting about the con and pro of my style and for courtesy I just wanted to give you a more overall picture. Sometime it is best knowing for a better exchange of view.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #863,539
  • Dec 14, 2013 2:07pm Dec 14, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting milam
{quote} I was not trying to persuade you on changing style, we were chatting about the con and pro of my style and for courtesy I just wanted to give you a more overall picture. Sometime it is best knowing for a better exchange of view.
Oh no I didn't mean to imply you were, I appreciate what you were trying to do.
  • #863,540
  • Dec 14, 2013 2:13pm Dec 14, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Did you manage +150 pips from E/J short? I didn't and was concentrated on U/J. It has broken the 5 years high and we are entering the unknown zone. Things were different 5 years ago and near years end can be tricky.
No, but I have 5 long position open (-158 pips). Now, I'm worried this will happen as I said earlier
Quoting NuNix
{quote} We'll see a sudden drop to 140. BE CAREFULL!!! Devil {image}
Dangdut is a music of my country
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