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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #71,501
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:18am Dec 12, 2013 10:18am
a nice weekly reversal would help..still short and will sell sm more rallies if warranted in the 1.38 - 1.39 bracket... still running a ss at 1.3849 but hasn't made it yet..and if it doesn't fine..since im short. not in the money yet...sold mrkt to cn...but been averaging to bring level up...
  • #71,502
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:26am Dec 12, 2013 10:26am
Yields up globally. UK, US and Germany leading the move, Spain and Italy lagging.

One of these will be proven to be incorrectly priced soon.... German 2 year yields have basically doubled in the past couple of weeks. Probably based on the previously discussed year end liquidity crunch and Draghi being hawkish.
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  • #71,503
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:57am Dec 12, 2013 10:57am
Quoting Citiboy
Yields up globally. UK, US and Germany leading the move, Spain and Italy lagging. One of these will be proven to be incorrectly priced soon.... German 2 year yields have basically doubled in the past couple of weeks. Probably based on the previously discussed year end liquidity crunch and Draghi being hawkish. {image}

Price Chg. Chg. %

US 2Y 0.334 +0.028 +9.12%
US 10Y 2.883 +0.039 +1.36%
Germany 2-Year 0.253 +0.015 +0.00%
Germany 10-Year 1.846 +0.005 +0.27%

rates should favor US$
  • #71,504
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:13am Dec 12, 2013 11:13am
surprised that the eu didn't take a good hit on todays $ strength.....however expect there's a boat load of stops that could trigger below 1.374...maybe 1770 in SPX needs to give
  • #71,505
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:15am Dec 12, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Islander
I don't know if any here are watching EurAud - I've recently started......with its 10 day ADR at 150 vs € at 80 and €J at 116 its where the action is....pity I had to move a boat this afternoon...... {image}

I have...and that baby is sexy.150 is a walk in the park for this pair on a very good day. I don`t know how ya approach price; whether Technically or Fundamentally or both. I use both approaches to the best of my ability( I`m not yet an expert) and at the moment I look at 1.5500(not the exact number but as a range) to be where this baby will seek a breather( the monthly R2 comes in @ 1.5650) and as @ the time of this writing we are trading 196pips above the 38% fib,the last most recent time it traded in this price zone was in May 2010 and on the 21st of May it peaked out @ 1.5457 and went down for some 3860pips; forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern along the way( H&S is clearer on the monthly chart) which is the technical setup that heralded this move.I have the reasoning we have come close to a pullback and i`m attacking defensively.
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  • #71,506
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:24am Dec 12, 2013 11:24am
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} I have...and that baby is sexy.150 is a walk in the park for this pair on a very good day. I don`t know how ya approach price; whether Technically or Fundamentally or both. I use both approaches to the best of my ability( I`m not yet an expert) and at the moment I look at 1.5500(not the exact number but as a range) to be where this baby will seek a breather( the monthly R2 comes in @ 1.5650) and as @ the time of this writing we are trading 196pips above the 38% fib,the last most recent time it traded in this price zone was in May 2010 and...
just trading the euro atm...although I spent sm time in Aussie land..hope it works well for U..
  • #71,507
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:27am Dec 12, 2013 11:27am
Quoting rendite
surprised that the eu didn't take a good hit on todays $ strength.....however expect there's a boat load of stops that could trigger below 1.374...maybe 1770 in SPX needs to give
not over yet still may/needs to head south for a possible reversal and further away from 1.3832 where a shi!load of stops are as well i'm sure...
  • #71,508
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:59am Dec 12, 2013 11:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yeah, if the FOMC does not taper next week, then 1.4x is my target. One more month of free money will not dissuade the bulls from driving it up towards all that liquidity (in the form of crowd stop losses) {image}
look at this master
its head n shoulder in play on AUDUSD
whats ur opinion
want ur valuable comments on it
8817 tragetor even furthur on this leg down
https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/
  • #71,509
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:22pm Dec 12, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} look at this master its head n shoulder in play on AUDUSD whats ur opinion want ur valuable comments on it 8817 tragetor even furthur on this leg down https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/
Yes I am waiting to buy at 0.8800.
I am not interested in selling because of the expensive negative swap.
I will also be interested in buying NZD/USD at around 0.8000 if it gets there.

I do not think they will get there this month... I think it will be a January rally.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,510
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:24pm Dec 12, 2013 12:24pm
EURUSD behaved perfectly today up to the pip! Got lucky and closed 4 short, 2 with profit, 2 with loss, overal +26! Since we retraced to the 61,8% fibo level from 3618 low to 3810 high are we suppose to head north again targeting 3840?

I've read article yesterday that market possibly priced in "dectaper, jantaper" whatever its now about what would be further wording of FOMC.
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  • #71,511
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:35pm Dec 12, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting mario83
EURUSD behaved perfectly today up to the pip! Got lucky and closed 4 short, 2 with profit, 2 with loss, overal +26! Since we retraced to the 61,8% fibo level from 3618 low to 3810 high are we suppose to head north again targeting 3840? I've read article yesterday that market possibly priced in "dectaper, jantaper" whatever its now about what would be further wording of FOMC. {image}
If DecTaper and/or Jantaper are priced in, they would only be priced in for a very small amount... Maybe 5 or 10 billion reduction.
However, the US unemployment rate is already at 7% and Bernanke said that by the time we reach 7%, the QE3 would have been fully tapered. So, my feeling is that if we do get a dectaper/jantaper... or maybe even both, that the taper will be much larger than what the market is anticipating.

There is no way to know yet. We have to wait till next week. If we don't get a taper next week, then by all means buy lots of Euros coz we're heading to 1.4x
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,512
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:38pm Dec 12, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If DecTaper and/or Jantaper are priced in, they would only be priced in for a very small amount... Maybe 5 or 10 billion reduction. However, the US unemployment rate is already at 7% and Bernanke said that by the time we reach 7%, the QE3 would have been fully tapered. So, my feeling is that if we do get a dectaper/jantaper... or maybe even both, that the taper will be much larger than what the market is anticipating. There is no way to know yet. We have to wait till next week. If we don't get a taper next week, then by all means buy lots...
dont worry - the chart will tells us everything
  • #71,513
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:41pm Dec 12, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If DecTaper and/or Jantaper are priced in, they would only be priced in for a very small amount... Maybe 5 or 10 billion reduction. However, the US unemployment rate is already at 7% and Bernanke said that by the time we reach 7%, the QE3 would have been fully tapered. So, my feeling is that if we do get a dectaper/jantaper... or maybe even both, that the taper will be much larger than what the market is anticipating. There is no way to know yet. We have to wait till next week. If we don't get a taper next week, then by all means buy lots...
Thanks PT! Great explanation from you as always - much appreciated!!!

here it is what i read: http://www.businessinsider.com/morga...pering-2013-12
  • #71,514
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:49pm Dec 12, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes I am waiting to buy at 0.8800. I am not interested in selling because of the expensive negative swap. I will also be interested in buying NZD/USD at around 0.8000 if it gets there. I do not think they will get there this month... I think it will be a January rally.
audusd may reach to 8800 faster than expected, may be on taper news
but nzdusd a bit lazy ,he wants time to come down 8000
  • #71,515
  • Dec 12, 2013 1:56pm Dec 12, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} audusd may reach to 8800 faster than expected, may be on taper news but nzdusd a bit lazy ,he wants time to come down 8000
Just a guess for the Aussie

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,516
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:13pm Dec 12, 2013 2:13pm
2s, 5s, 10s and 30s on the rise.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,517
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:26pm Dec 12, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Just a guess for the Aussie {image}


Any reasoning for bullishness?
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  • #71,518
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:32pm Dec 12, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Any reasoning for bullishness?
Just a technical correction. My target is 92/93 area
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,519
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:35pm Dec 12, 2013 2:35pm
The latest EuroZone & UK Macro snapshot...

Unemployment rates (I think Employment rate would almost be a smaller number )
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Budget Balance (Fiscal Compact limit is -3%)
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Debt to GDP (Treaty limit is 60%)
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Growth (or lack of it)
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10 year bond yields (That is what the ECB refers to as Fragmentation)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,520
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:45pm Dec 12, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Just a technical correction. My target is 92/93 area
Based on the inverse h/s for Aussie

I see .8790 approximately... as a 1 to 1 extension from a measured move standpoint.

Once we see that, a re-test of .90 could be justified based on expectation alone. How far it'll bounce if bounce at all depends on the market structure at the time.

My thoughts...
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