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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #71,481
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:25am Dec 12, 2013 7:25am
I still feel there is some business still to be made before end of year... im still holding on to my short position and i feel today or tomorrow could be the days where we see a move further down.
Cheers!!
  • #71,482
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:41am Dec 12, 2013 7:41am
Quoting PipsMaster23
I still feel there is some business still to be made before end of year... im still holding on to my short position and i feel today or tomorrow could be the days where we see a move further down.
What level are you targeting PM?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,483
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:03am Dec 12, 2013 8:03am
Maybe the time to start working into the shorts is closer than we imagined. I am trying to laser focus on trends trending now...going well so far.

For EURUSD I am llooking for the 1.3750 to break decisively, price stay below there for a day or two, perhaps trade down to the 2nd white box.

Then on the retracement higher to the inital break level I will establish some shorts and build from there.
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  • #71,484
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:07am Dec 12, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Citiboy
Maybe the time to start working into the shorts is closer than we imagined. I am trying to laser focus on trends trending now...going well so far. For EURUSD I am llooking for the 1.3750 to break decisively, price stay below there for a day or two, perhaps trade down to the 2nd white box. Then on the retracement higher to the inital break level I will establish some shorts and build from there. {image}
Do you not think that the uptrend still has gas. As I mentioned earlier, I expect 3720 to provide initial support... and on failure, 3620/30 area should do it before we head up to the 1.4x zone. Of course I could be dead wrong, but that's what I see as the highest probability for now.

Should all support just give way and the US Dollar (as well as 2s, 5s and 10s yields) start skyrocketing, then yeah... forget 1.4 for now and look more towards 3161/3090
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,485
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:18am Dec 12, 2013 8:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Do you not think that the uptrend still has gas. As I mentioned earlier, I expect 3720 to provide initial support... and on failure, 3620/30 area should do it before we head up to the 1.4x zone. Of course I could be dead wrong, but that's what I see as the highest probability for now. Should all support just give way and the US Dollar (as well as 2s, 5s and 10s yields) start skyrocketing, then yeah... forget 1.4 for now and look more towards 3161/3090
Completely agree, I've been bid all week closed out yesterday for 100 pips now back in. Euro bid throughout NY
  • #71,486
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:34am Dec 12, 2013 8:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Do you not think that the uptrend still has gas. As I mentioned earlier, I expect 3720 to provide initial support... and on failure, 3620/30 area should do it before we head up to the 1.4x zone. Of course I could be dead wrong, but that's what I see as the highest probability for now. Should all support just give way and the US Dollar (as well as 2s, 5s and 10s yields) start skyrocketing, then yeah... forget 1.4 for now and look more towards 3161/3090



Well if my preferred scenario plays out I'd be willing to try. I am only getting involved if 1.3750 is broken, price trades below 1.3700 then restests 1.3750 at some point.

As for 1.400, I dont really see it going that high. guess that depends on FOMC though
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,487
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:42am Dec 12, 2013 8:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} What level are you targeting PM?
Initially, 1.3660 and 1.3630... my chart does also open the way to 1.35 levels too (maybe needing 2 weeks)

But i will take partial profits at initial levels mentioned and then move my SL to BE and let it go wherever risk free
Cheers!!
  • #71,488
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:46am Dec 12, 2013 8:46am
Quoting Citiboy
Scaling into very small EURGBP shorts starting here at 0.8429, think this FT piece out a couple of hours ago will start making the rounds and make for some very interesting sov bond price action going into 2014. Will keep adding to EURGBP up through 0.8470... December 11, 2013 9:45 pm ECB poised to get tough on sovereign bond risks By Claire Jones in Frankfurt A top official at the European Central Bank has signalled it will try to force eurozone banks to hold capital against sovereign bonds, in an attempt to stop weak lenders using its cash to...


Seems EURGBP behaves better than EURUSD. E/U has been a headache this month, I Have a hunch this EUR strength is heavily related to the AQR... Hopefully the EURUSD bull will die out early next year.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,489
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:49am Dec 12, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Well if my preferred scenario plays out I'd be willing to try. I am only getting involved if 1.3750 is broken, price trades below 1.3700 then restests 1.3750 at some point. As for 1.400, I dont really see it going that high. guess that depends on FOMC though
Yeah, if the FOMC does not taper next week, then 1.4x is my target.
One more month of free money will not dissuade the bulls from driving it up towards all that liquidity (in the form of crowd stop losses)

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,490
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:54am Dec 12, 2013 8:54am
Quoting dchristi
{quote} Santa delivered mine last year. I've got them firmly attached as I short EUR at 1.38 How about YOU?
Partials taken @ 1.3760. Looking to reload these higher if price action looks right.
Student of the Markets
  • #71,491
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:56am Dec 12, 2013 8:56am
Make sure they are on your Xmas list.
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Student of the Markets
  • #71,492
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:58am Dec 12, 2013 8:58am
Quoting dchristi
Make sure they are on your Xmas list. {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,493
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:01am Dec 12, 2013 9:01am
I don't know if any here are watching EurAud - I've recently started......with its 10 day ADR at 150 vs € at 80 and €J at 116 its where the action is....pity I had to move a boat this afternoon......
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  • #71,494
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:03am Dec 12, 2013 9:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Do you not think that the uptrend still has gas. As I mentioned earlier, I expect 3720 to provide initial support... and on failure, 3620/30 area should do it before we head up to the 1.4x zone. Of course I could be dead wrong, but that's what I see as the highest probability for now. Should all support just give way and the US Dollar (as well as 2s, 5s and 10s yields) start skyrocketing, then yeah... forget 1.4 for now and look more towards 3161/3090
Nice PT, seems scuttlebutt is 13715-20 for 14080-14100.

Right or wrong, it is a key level.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #71,495
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:05am Dec 12, 2013 9:05am
Commodity currencies getting trashed! CAD taking me for a ride!
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  • #71,496
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:16am Dec 12, 2013 9:16am
Quoting Citiboy
Commodity currencies getting trashed! CAD taking me for a ride!
I was waiting for 1.0450/60 to get in on the Loonie toonie.
Looks like I might have missed the train... maybe???
This could be a 123 bearish reversal forming. 123 invalidation will take place on a break above 1.07

Add: 1.0665 looks like a good place to short for an easy 200 pips (If I am right)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,497
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:22am Dec 12, 2013 9:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I was waiting for 1.0450/60 to get in on the Loonie toonie. Looks like I might have missed the train... maybe??? This could be a 123 bearish reversal forming. 123 invalidation will take place on a break above 1.07 Add: 1.0665 looks like a good place to short for an easy 200 pips (If I am right)

I was buying 1.0580, selling at these levels. I think it probably is due for a proper pull back to 1.05 at some point. Dont know if that will be before or after it takes out 1.07 though? I guess FOMC is yet again the biggest determining factor here on 1.07 or 1.05.

At this point I think they will taper, which is likely being price in right now.


Bank of Canada speech today should be interesting.
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  • #71,498
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:42am Dec 12, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I was buying 1.0580, selling at these levels. I think it probably is due for a proper pull back to 1.05 at some point. Dont know if that will be before or after it takes out 1.07 though? I guess FOMC is yet again the biggest determining factor here on 1.07 or 1.05. At this point I think they will taper, which is likely being price in right now. Bank of Canada speech today should be interesting.
These central banks never cease to piss me off.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,499
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:58am Dec 12, 2013 9:58am
Covered 1/2 @ 1.375 just now. Worst case scenario = break even trade if 2nd half hit stop loss.

Trail the rest accordingly...

GL all.
  • #71,500
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:09am Dec 12, 2013 10:09am
Quoting Orientxpress
Covered 1/2 @ 1.375 just now. Worst case scenario = break even trade if 2nd half hit stop loss. Trail the rest accordingly... GL all.
Nice. Taking partials is fantastic, isn't it?

Breaking news... SP500 broke and confirmed H/S neckline.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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