AUDNZD, GBPJPY, EURUSD - H4/D1/W1 Setups | Forex Factory

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AUDNZD, GBPJPY, EURUSD - H4/D1/W1 Setups

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:45pm Dec 11, 2013 12:34pm | Edited 12:45pm
My 3 favorite pairs as they are all not correlated to each other whatsoever.

AUDNZD - weekly bottom incoming --- long. 2014 quick correction then bear continue

GBPJPY - weekly top incoming -- neutral looking for shorts. 2014 still a bull

EURUSD - insane demand trying to go for 1.42 --- long. 2014 still a bull

We should see a multi year bear move in USD soon.

Your fundamental catalyst (for all in short) will be the announcement of crude oil futures priced in yuan.
That will be far more drastic than anything the FED could do.

Please only AUDNZD, GBPJPY, EURUSD
Please post only H4, D1 and W1 charts.
Please call targets, potential drawdown before continuing into profit , and estimated time to reach target.

I don't expect this thread to be active at all as we trade the major swings only.
Ill get some charts up later when I'm not on mobile.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #2
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:02pm Dec 11, 2013 2:02pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
I'm signed up.....

AUDNZD couldn't reach it's 20 Day Average(white ma) so it

looks to be heading further back south now at least to the

last swing low...
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One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #3
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting Owl
I'm signed up..... AUDNZD couldn't reach it's 20 Day Average(white ma) so it looks to be heading further back south now at least to the last swing low... {image}
good call there

i was long from 1.0955 from monday


should be time to get long again soon

240

target 1.1060 and if break convincingly go for 1.1210
buy some here and more in low 1.09s
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:23pm Dec 11, 2013 4:23pm
Crude being mainly traded in yuan wouldn't cause a multiyear bear move for the USD. Not to mention that the futures won't be priced in Yuan in at least 50 years (bare in mind - they are traded in Chicago)
  • #5
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:15pm Dec 11, 2013 5:15pm
ENTRY 1st long position

AUDNZD

1.0935

Target: 1.1040, 1.1210

Potential drawdown: 30-50 pips before it screams buy and rallies hard
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #6
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:17pm Dec 11, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Crude being mainly traded in yuan wouldn't cause a multiyear bear move for the USD. Not to mention that the futures won't be priced in Yuan in at least 50 years (bare in mind - they are traded in Chicago)
Really, so selling USD doesn't drive it down?

Interesting concept.

The only thing that would drive USD up at this point is a big take profit in US equities.

Everything else is dirt cheap.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #7
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:19pm Dec 11, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Really, so selling USD doesn't drive it down? Interesting concept. The only thing that would drive USD up at this point is a big take profit in US equities. Everything else is dirt cheap.
This is just awkward now...
  • #8
  • Edited 5:44pm Dec 11, 2013 5:27pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} This is just awkward now...
Why? You think that spending USD drives its value up? And that selling things drives USD down?

Lol.


I'm not sure you understand how big US equities are. Do you know large total market cap is?
Sure daily volume doesn't compare to FX, but stocks were a high volume market. They are long term grind and churn type of market.

What's awkward to me is why you wouldn't say anything other than "this is just awkward now"
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #9
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:29pm Dec 11, 2013 5:29pm
Love the iPad mini MT4.

How could anyone be selling here?

I see the case for 1 more h4 candle down but the RR for selling isn't there anymore.
That's why I started building the longs.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #10
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:37pm Dec 11, 2013 5:37pm
AUDNZD m1 screaming long entry 0929

use only for precision if you want to try 1 to 10 or 1 to 20 type RR

otherwise m1 is good for nothing in this thread anyway
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #11
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:43pm Dec 11, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Why? You think that spending USD drives its value up? And that selling things drives USD down? Lol. What's awkward to me is why you wouldn't say anything other than "this is just awkward now"
yeah so, if USD equity was to fall (ceterus paribus) the USD would fall.
  • #12
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:31pm Dec 11, 2013 6:31pm
Kaboom

Go AUD

Just needed the funda catalyst as usual

RBA cut rates in 2013, RBNZ will in 2014 (or RBA will raise them, but an RBNZ cut seems more likely)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #13
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:36pm Dec 11, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} yeah so, if USD equity was to fall (ceterus paribus) the USD would fall.
lol

2013 was an exception to the standard correlation

it was entirely a yen based story.


true risk off = USD rally, no exceptions. this will be the case until a new currency becomes the reserve.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #14
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:41pm Dec 11, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Kaboom Go AUD Just needed the funda catalyst as usual RBA cut rates in 2013, RBNZ will in 2014 (or RBA will raise them, but an RBNZ cut seems more likely)
Still liquidity issues, but will bottom shortly.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #15
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:47pm Dec 11, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Still liquidity issues, but will bottom shortly.
1.0827 is the bottom for me , Aud is still heading down in a consistent way .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #16
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:24pm Dec 11, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} 1.0827 is the bottom for me , Aud is still heading down in a consistent way .
i guess i should ask, why is that your bottom? and what bottom?

im not talking bottom price for say... a 2014 reversal. i think 2014 will be a choppy accumulation phase. then 2015 will be bullish

trading like that doesnt make any sense to me. but i do see some reasoning for trying to predict an exact price days or weeks in advance.
i know its possible but i wouldnt just set a limit order at any given price. i need to wait for the PA

im talking about a 4hr bullish swing here, and actually a daily swing potential, the bigger move might not happen until next week

if it turns into a daily or weekly reversal, thats great

I made 6 reward for 1 risk on Monday so losses trying to catch a nice bottom are no big deal

they always pay off when the big winner comes

yearly highs and lows are some of the highest probability trades especially when they come in december.

why? because over 80% of candles leave a wick on both sides.

rare for a yearly candle to close within 100 pips of its high or low
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #17
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:35pm Dec 11, 2013 7:35pm
Risking a few here 1.0913 long, RR target 1 to 15

The key is when you get the winning trade, you hold it, and most importantly, add more positions to the winning equity.

Just don't increase your break even point by too much at one time.

edit: got out -5, m30 candle breaking down.

will try again lower

1.0880 ideal. stay small and have holding power.
go big when you are running on positive carry

only go tight stops when you think "NOW" is the moment
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #18
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:46pm Dec 11, 2013 7:46pm
back in long

1.0903
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #19
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:34pm Dec 11, 2013 8:34pm
Better be bottoming soon. Haven't seen action like this in months.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #20
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:59pm Dec 11, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Better be bottoming soon. Haven't seen action like this in months. {image}
Update on the cripple
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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