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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,361
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:47am Dec 11, 2013 11:47am
N/J looks up as well

Added a long there with tight sl
  • #40,362
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:49am Dec 11, 2013 11:49am
Quoting mm2mm
N/J looks up as well Added a long there with tight sl

A/J ; N/J.. they're brothers
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,363
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:59am Dec 11, 2013 11:59am
hmm correction ended i hope
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #40,364
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:08pm Dec 11, 2013 12:08pm
Looks like USD index found a support at 79.80/84 - the same from earlier October. If it breaks down there will be more difficulties for UJ. But for now, let's watch the bouncing from the support at UJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd support.png Size: 30 KB
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,365
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:13pm Dec 11, 2013 12:13pm

  1. Dec 2, 2013 9:30am

Quoting Fx-gtg
above 103 is just eating stops and accs to go to 100 and below
plenty of opportunity to scalp from 103. I don't know if it will reach 100 now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy1202.gif Size: 60 KB
  • #40,366
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:21pm Dec 11, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting bikov
Looks like USD index found a support at 79.80/84 - the same from earlier October. If it breaks down there will be more difficulties for UJ. But for now, let's watch the bouncing from the support at UJ. {image}
bigger tf looks like looking final dip.im not sure either
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #40,367
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:21pm Dec 11, 2013 12:21pm
support is holding on the daily and the 4 hour chart. Price is just sticking to the cloud on the 4 hour chart.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Support.PNG Size: 294 KB
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,368
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:06pm Dec 11, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting mm2mm
N/J looks up as well Added a long there with tight sl

ha this turned out nicely

Took 70 pip with high leverage
  • #40,369
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:46pm Dec 11, 2013 2:46pm
Looks like 102.10 will be supported, hopefully one more move down there after US session ends, then rise up a bit and gain momentum will provide a nice long entry and we can retest 103.50

US mkt getting sold off makes me wonder though if UJ might have to get hit hard for a bit.

Also Daily/Weekly charts look like they can easily spill over and get hit. I don't know. I'm still bias to the long side as this is a very strong trend. Try not to over think things and stick with high probability set ups that go w/ the trend.
  • #40,370
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:46pm Dec 11, 2013 2:46pm
the ol 3:30 S&P selloff eh?

market on close orders can be a bitch. lol
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,371
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:57pm Dec 11, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting mm2mm
{quote} ha this turned out nicely Took 70 pip with high leverage
Those usually either pay off nicely or end up bloody. Congrats to you if it turned out nicely
  • #40,372
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:59pm Dec 11, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting Citiboy
the ol 3:30 S&P selloff eh? market on close orders can be a bitch. lol
The hourly and 4 hour bars seem to be headed towards the down side while for the last month they have been to the upside. After a month of upside we could be do for a correction now.
  • #40,373
  • Dec 11, 2013 3:11pm Dec 11, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} The hourly and 4 hour bars seem to be headed towards the down side while for the last month they have been to the upside. After a month of upside we could be do for a correction now.

Indeed. No more longs for me until at least 101.20. Especially if week closes well below 102.50 (bearish engulfment).

Equities and tapering are going to take this thing lower
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,374
  • Dec 11, 2013 3:11pm Dec 11, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Those usually either pay off nicely or end up bloody. Congrats to you if it turned out nicely
Yeah that is correct, but this time had very tight sl. By the time the news came i was 30+ prof and moved sl to b.e so took a shot
  • #40,375
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:05pm Dec 11, 2013 4:05pm
The market is currently playing right into the options barrier at 103.50 set to expire December 20, that has been protected two times so far. Each setback reduces (slightly) short JPY positions, in turn, flattens out an overly short JPY market a bit and gears it up for a large multi-month run in 2014.

I think a realistic “forecast” is something in the range of 105-107 by June 2014, I would also forecast a large long-side setback in 2014 much akin to May this year, moving the market hundreds of points backwards shaking out portions of hedge fund positions in the process.
  • #40,376
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting seandean
The market is currently playing right into the options barrier at 103.50 set to expire December 20, that has been protected two times so far. Each setback reduces (slightly) short JPY positions, in turn, flattens out an overly short JPY market a bit and gears it up for a large multi-month run in 2014. I think a realistic “forecast” is something in the range of 105-107 by June 2014, I would also forecast a large long-side setback in 2014 much akin to May this year, moving the market hundreds of points backwards shaking out portions of hedge fund...
I think it is smart to consider both sides with a favor to the bull side for the rest of the month which aligns with your Dec 20th date. All I figure is that as you get closer to the end the of the month we should see some real movement (prob in favor of bulls). But that is why using 4hr is so great you can minimize the risk and wait for perfect moment.

Just took a long with stop at 102.33.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,377
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:12pm Dec 11, 2013 7:12pm
I expect a bloodbath tomorrow, YEN crosses should be slaughtered with enormous ranges + watch how GOLD rebounds
  • #40,378
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:20pm Dec 11, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting Ulterior
I expect a bloodbath tomorrow, YEN crosses should be slaughtered with enormous ranges + watch how GOLD rebounds


why would gold be going up while the yen is rising?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,379
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:24pm Dec 11, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} why would gold be going up while the yen is rising?
safe heaven and correlation - plenty of data around
  • #40,380
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:40pm Dec 11, 2013 7:40pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} why would gold be going up while the yen is rising?
I think what he meant to say is.."With the recent strong employment data, strong retail sales, and the expectation of the fed to taper UJ should continue to be strong and the Yen should continue to get pummeled, and we may start to see a divergence between it and the Nikkei." As for gold and silver
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
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