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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,001
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:26am Dec 2, 2013 1:26am
108 the next target for Abe then.

Going to be reloading long on any little dip maybe if the fed dont taper in dec.


Sakakibara interview in Tokyo:

  1. Abenomics succeeding, should continue
  2. GPIF shift from JGB's to drive stocks up, yen down
  3. Sees Yen range 102-108 v USD vs 95-102 previously
  4. Says Fed may taper early 2014, even this month.
  5. Sees Yen drop to 108 on pension fund sales, Fed taper


USDJPY hardly moved...102.43.

  • #40,002
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:28am Dec 2, 2013 1:28am
Quoting Cowboy11
What I see is that it will not go below 102.
Kind-of agree. What I see is a CZ between 102 and 102.60.
Direction? We'll find out soon...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,003
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:06am Dec 2, 2013 3:06am
Quoting iamkjb
{quote} Hit the 127.2% extension almost to the pip. Based on current pa I am looking for the next extension at 103.102 (not 103.57 as incorrectly stated previously) but my target would first be to test the 103.o level.
Follow-up to this:-

The 161.8% fib extension of the BC leg shown in the daily chart would complete an extended bearish Crab pattern, below the May 2013 high at 103.726.

This is looking quite stretched and I would be looking for a bigger pullback at these levels.

Lots of US data released during this week so could be interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJD1_20131202.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #40,004
  • Edited 3:48am Dec 2, 2013 3:09am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting entheos
M15 Timeframe, bull trap+bearish 3drive. {image}
Thanks for posting a chart.
Gone to a better place
  • #40,005
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:50am Dec 2, 2013 3:50am
Quoting brinks
108 the next target for Abe then. Going to be reloading long on any little dip maybe if the fed dont taper in dec. Sakakibara interview in Tokyo: Abenomics succeeding, should continue GPIF shift from JGB's to drive stocks up, yen down Sees Yen range 102-108 v USD vs 95-102 previously Says Fed may taper early 2014, even this month. Sees Yen drop to 108 on pension fund sales, Fed taper USDJPY hardly moved...102.43.
Hi Brinks thanks for the insight still waiting @sideline since 100,6x where it hit my TP. Maybe I can wait another 20 years .
Still, without a significant pullback I wont get in again as the current RR (to me at least) is really bad.
  • #40,006
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:25am Dec 2, 2013 4:25am
102.8 is a bull trap in my opinion.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #40,007
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:46am Dec 2, 2013 4:46am
Quoting livethedream
102.8 is a bull trap in my opinion.
any explanation or reason?
  • #40,008
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:54am Dec 2, 2013 4:54am
Quoting livethedream
102.8 is a bull trap in my opinion.

US10y t notes under 125(last time this level seen in Sept.) ; dollar strengthening - a good sign for UJ. If Bernanke doesn't spoils the party, maybe levels < 100 should go to museum.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,009
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:15am Dec 2, 2013 5:15am
Quoting bikov
{quote} US10y t notes under 125(last time this level seen in Sept.) ; dollar strengthening - a good sign for UJ. If Bernanke doesn't spoils the party, maybe levels < 100 should go to museum.
I'm not looking for levels under 100. Simply a correction to about 101.8... after we move another 10 or so pips up to 102.9
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #40,010
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:16am Dec 2, 2013 5:16am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Hi Brinks thanks for the insight still waiting @sideline since 100,6x where it hit my TP. Maybe I can wait another 20 years . Still, without a significant pullback I wont get in again as the current RR (to me at least) is really bad.

Hi pip its a bit of a tough one at the moment it reminds me a bit of the rally at the beggining of the year when it didnt pullback at all
  • #40,011
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:24am Dec 2, 2013 5:24am
Quoting livethedream
{quote} I'm not looking for levels under 100. Simply a correction to about 101.8... after we move another 10 or so pips up to 102.9

level 101.8 is real, I see it just like opportunity to add more longs. right now hourly cci34 is 263 which is an overbought condition, some pullback is expected but not enough to ruin the big bullish picture.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,012
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:30am Dec 2, 2013 5:30am
Quoting bikov
{quote} level 101.8 is real, I see it just like opportunity to add more longs. right now hourly cci34 is 263 which is an overbought condition, some pullback is expected but not enough to ruin the big bullish picture.
I wanted to buy at around 102.4x but the Risk/Reward was too high. Do you think it will pull back close that a bit today?
  • #40,013
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:17am Dec 2, 2013 7:17am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I wanted to buy at around 102.4x but the Risk/Reward was too high. Do you think it will pull back close that a bit today?
honestly i don‘t know,maybe, but all signs are pointing up so no problem for longs..for now. i have some positions from under 100 and i‘ll keep them further (110?) .
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,014
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:30am Dec 2, 2013 8:30am
above 103 is just eating stops and accs to go to 100 and below
  • #40,015
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:44am Dec 2, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Fx-gtg
above 103 is just eating stops and accs to go to 100 and below
I suppose you are on shorts then.

There have been many similiar claims that this will fall to 100 and below in this forum in the past few weeks. All crytal ball predictions or do you have some support for the claim?
  • #40,016
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:55am Dec 2, 2013 8:55am
demographics matters:
Attached Images
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,017
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:56am Dec 2, 2013 8:56am
While this dip the last half hour off 103 is a buying opportunity...I'll let someone else have a chance to join me long. (:
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,018
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:04am Dec 2, 2013 10:04am
the only thing that worries me is COT report positioning which points to stronger Yen (usually when commercials are buying vs speculators selling - bullish for the currency).
http://www.commodityandderivativeadv...ese%20yen.tiff
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,019
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:12am Dec 2, 2013 10:12am
Quoting bikov
demographics matters: {image} {image}
They are stuffed, are they not?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,020
  • Edited 11:58am Dec 2, 2013 11:46am | Edited 11:58am
missed this trading day man
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