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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #355,521
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:06am Dec 6, 2013 9:06am
I'm going to make a 2 week projection here. I have no position open currently, and this is just what I can see happening and is no means meant to give anyone trades ideas. But what I can see happening over the next week is a move over the high of 1.64417, probably taking a quick run at 1.65. In the meantime, this will create a strong divergence case for a short. Accumulation by the big boys continue the reminder of the week and into the beginning of the next week (basically a whipsaw that is going to piss off a lot of retail traders). December 18th, 1 pm rolls around... All hell is gonna break loose. The Fed will either announce tapering (which is what I'm thinking will happen with todays unemployment numbers), and the bottom will drop out, or they will continue with QE (because Ben does Ben wants), and we'll be looking at 1.70 minimum.
  • #355,522
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:11am Dec 6, 2013 9:11am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} I see you tried to correlate different instrument for single pair for your trading. That is a good concept and I did that as well.. if you try to correlate dollar index to cable, have you seen how Pound is performing? I mean to better gauge the sentiment you have to hear from both side of the market, don't you agree?
Correlation is helpful as an overall guide to potential direct agreed.
Cable is outperforming all of the majors though and there are some very convincing fundies. Its not a rocket ship though and it can't go up forever.
  • #355,523
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:12am Dec 6, 2013 9:12am
Quoting Nate04
I'm going to make a 2 week projection here. I have no position open currently, and this is just what I can see happening and is no means meant to give anyone trades ideas. But what I can see happening over the next week is a move over the high of 1.64417, probably taking a quick run at 1.65. In the meantime, this will create a strong divergence case for a short. Accumulation by the big boys continue the reminder of the week and into the beginning of the next week (basically a whipsaw that is going to piss off a lot of retail traders). December 18th,...
perhaps that is true, however if you look at daily, after we reached the highest price, there is no single candle closed above the previous high.. i'm afraid that is not the sign of bullishness, more towards bearish sign from my understanding.. i also expect a breakout today to the north side but price doesn't seems to agree and price/market always right.. we are nobody in the market and definitely our position size will not impact much on the direction..
  • #355,524
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:14am Dec 6, 2013 9:14am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Correlation is helpful as an overall guide to potential direct agreed. Cable is outperforming all of the majors though and there are some very convincing fundies. Its not a rocket ship though and it can't go up forever.
i think we are almost on the same page here.. what i think is, we are going towards a major retracement, perhaps towards the breakout price at about 6240 area..

daily cluster support is at about 6150 area..
  • #355,525
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:28am Dec 6, 2013 9:28am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} perhaps that is true, however if you look at daily, after we reached the highest price, there is no single candle closed above the previous high.. i'm afraid that is not the sign of bullishness, more towards bearish sign from my understanding.. i also expect a breakout today to the north side but price doesn't seems to agree and price/market always right.. we are nobody in the market and definitely our position size will not impact much on the direction..
That is a definate possibility as well... and I completely agree with your last statement. Again, my projection is just what I could possibly see happening in my mind. The reason why I see a case is 1.65 is because A. There is most likely a TON of stops up there, and you know the big boys will want to gun after those, and in the process, give them the ability to place thier shorts... In this same line of thinking, after a false break of 1.6441, retailers will believe that another move up is happening, and put in thier long trades, giving yet more traders for the big boys to place thier short orders on.

Whatever happens, my conditions for a trade have not been at this time, and it may be awhile until conditions come into play, so I'm flat for the current time, and I'm fine with that.
  • #355,526
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:28am Dec 6, 2013 9:28am
GBP was weak for two days. All news of USD came stronger for two days. Why should GBP/USD keep going up ?
  • #355,527
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:39am Dec 6, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Nate04
{quote} That is a definate possibility as well... and I completely agree with your last statement. Again, my projection is just what I could possibly see happening in my mind. The reason why I see a case is 1.65 is because A. There is most likely a TON of stops up there, and you know the big boys will want to gun after those, and in the process, give them the ability to place thier shorts... In this same line of thinking, after a false break of 1.6441, retailers will believe that another move up is happening, and put in thier long trades, giving...
well, actually and if i may say it, this has nothing to do with the big boys or the small boys.. everybody are given the same opportunity in the market. the only difference for us, "the small players" is we let our emotional comes into play. look at what happen recently (few years back) when gold hit the highs.. everybody went and say gold will be at $3000 by the end of the year but the weekly pattern with long tail (in a form of shooting star) doesn't agree with that.. and look where the gold price recently?

My point is, 90% of the time, small traders like us only take action buying or selling when price almost at the top/bottom. It happens not only in forex but also in stocks, commodities, futures, indexes, at almost every market in the world.. that is why the saying said when everybody telling you to buy, it is time to sell... lol.
  • #355,528
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:48am Dec 6, 2013 9:48am
actually looks to me like the start of a breakout on GBPUSD....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #355,529
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:53am Dec 6, 2013 9:53am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} i think we are almost on the same page here.. what i think is, we are going towards a major retracement, perhaps towards the breakout price at about 6240 area.. daily cluster support is at about 6150 area..
1.63834 short tight stop 1.6401 down to 1.6140 what do you think to that
  • #355,530
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:55am Dec 6, 2013 9:55am
Quoting fxtyrant
actually looks to me like the start of a breakout on GBPUSD....
i think it will just bounce up and down from the open price.. not going for a breakout imho, not at time like this (almost into just US session)..
  • #355,531
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:58am Dec 6, 2013 9:58am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} 1.63834 short tight stop 1.6401 down to 1.6140 what do you think to that
imho.. take 1 support at a time.. let's see how the momentum after the price break 6300.. if the price print spinning or doji.. 6240 is sufficient for the retracement imho.. 61xx area not clear yet if you ask me at this time ( we are not even break the first support yet).. lol.
  • #355,532
  • Dec 6, 2013 10:55am Dec 6, 2013 10:55am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I think we are experiencing a moment where Positive US data brings Risk on.... when US data is good people invest in stocks invest in risk commodities like EUR, GBP, AUD, and pull money out of safe haven like CHF, JPY etc... so do not trade data expecting good data will boost the USD immediately thinking tapering will happen... Taper hasnt happen and the USD wont rise until the day they actually announce Taper.... otherwise, just trade the risk on/off gauge....
Seriously?

Where has all this fundamental jibber jabber brought you, young man..

You will come and go like a rash.

Managed account my ass.

Not happening - if so, start running

Regards
  • #355,533
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:07am Dec 6, 2013 11:07am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} imho.. take 1 support at a time.. let's see how the momentum after the price break 6300.. if the price print spinning or doji.. 6240 is sufficient for the retracement imho.. 61xx area not clear yet if you ask me at this time ( we are not even break the first support yet).. lol.
a close past 1.63190 should take us short i am in and in profit at last i have been watching this set up 3 days now could this be the day nice end to the week
  • #355,534
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:10am Dec 6, 2013 11:10am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Seriously? Where has all this fundamental jibber jabber brought you, young man.. You will come and go like a rash. Managed account my ass. Not happening - if so, start running Regards
gosh what crawled up your ass and died in there?
you are cranky as hell today....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #355,535
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:14am Dec 6, 2013 11:14am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Seriously? Where has all this fundamental jibber jabber brought you, young man.. You will come and go like a rash. Managed account my ass. Not happening - if so, start running Regards
i have had a rash noe for 19 years and i still cant get rid of her lol were are we going in your eyes
  • #355,536
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:30am Dec 6, 2013 11:30am
Why the hell will you soar , I know you are weak and atleast I will see you again at 6290 my f...u...c...k...i...n...g b...i...t....c....h.
  • #355,537
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:32am Dec 6, 2013 11:32am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} a close past 1.63190 should take us short i am in and in profit at last i have been watching this set up 3 days now could this be the day nice end to the week
see, who says small players cannot profit in this business? i've closed my position.. wouldn't let it open through the weekend.. anything can happen from this price as i seeing it..
  • #355,538
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:38am Dec 6, 2013 11:38am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} i have had a rash noe for 19 years and i still cant get rid of her lol were are we going in your eyes
good day to you, Mr.E

1.6450

Ponder.. I also thought my other half was impounding me. Looking at her while she was sleeping the other night, I realized that she is the reason I live. Go figure.

Regards
  • #355,539
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:38am Dec 6, 2013 11:38am
great weekend to all.

see u all when i see u..

later guys.
  • #355,540
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:47am Dec 6, 2013 11:47am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} see, who says small players cannot profit in this business? i've closed my position.. wouldn't let it open through the weekend.. anything can happen from this price as i seeing it..
i got short were i said i think we will havea small pull back few pips then short again i was watching the fight at the farm ?? on the hour chart it went up 1 candle with no follow throu so a waited were i have said for the last 3 days below the 200 sma and went short on a res line which happened to be on the pull back from yesterday at 76 fib i am still a little worried so came out at 1.6322 with nice profit just waiting now
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